Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly during spring training workouts at Salt River Fields on Feb. 13, 2026, Scottsdale. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Outlet Labels Beloved D-backs Starter a Potential Bust

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Alex D'Agostino | Last updated Feb 18, 2026 5:02 PM ET

For years, right-hander Merrill Kelly has been somewhat of a secret to national audiences, mostly held dear by fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks alone. That trend appears to be continuing into the 2026 season.

A recent article from Bleacher Report's Tim Kelly broke down 10 of MLB's most likely free-agent bust candidates ahead of the 2026 season. Down the list at No. 10, he pointed to Arizona's returning mainstay and opening day starter.

Arizona Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly Labeled Bust Candidate

Here's what the article had to say about the D-backs' long-time veteran righty:

"Merrill Kelly earned a multi-year deal based on his performance, but it was still a bit surprising to see the Diamondbacks reunite with him on a two-year, $40 million deal this offseason given that he'll pitch this season at 37 years old.

"To his credit, Kelly still logged 184 innings last season, including posting a 3.22 ERA across 22 starts for the Diamondbacks. He had less success following a trade to the Texas Rangers, as he posted a 4.23 ERA in 10 starts.

"Still, the Diamondbacks would sign up for the 3.52 ERA and 3.76 FIP that Kelly pitched to over 32 starts last season. It's just a matter of whether what we saw down the stretch with the Rangers was the beginning of age starting to catch up with the veteran righty. The mixture of age and a poor finish to 2026 makes a multi-year deal risky."

It would be irresponsible to claim there was no risk in bringing Kelly back, particularly on such a lucrative deal, and through the latter end of his 30s, no less.

But one of the very reasons this move felt more safe was simply Kelly's reliability and consistency. Throughout his career, he's remained mostly healthy and generally effective. While never lighting up the stat sheets, Kelly has pitched over 150 innings in all but one of his non-covid seasons, and has never posted an ERA worse than 4.44.

His career ERA is 3.77 and his 3.99 FIP backs that number up. He was on pace for a career-best 3.22 ERA with the D-backs before he was dealt to Texas.

Now, his struggles in the latter end of 2025 are certainly something to note. He delivered a 4.23 ERA in 10 starts with Texas, but it wasn't a stretch worthy of being called a massive decline.

Kelly is back in the environment he never wanted to leave, with the very same teammates and coaches who allowed him to see so much success over the years in Phoenix. While age-related regression can strike hard at any time, Kelly is an arm whose complete lack of severe volatility has created an almost bust-proof reputation.