Padres Have Decision to Make After Disappointing Injury News

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Charlie O'Keefe | Last updated Mar 16, 2026 2:56 PM ET

The San Diego Padres have seen very little of right hander Joe Musgrove on the mound the past few seasons, and it seems that that trend will continue to open the 2026 season. Manager Craig Stammen announced on Monday that Musgrove would most likely open the season on the Injured List, freeing up a spot in the Opening Day rotation that has no shortage of candidates.

It's yet another unfortunate setback for the southern California native, who has thrown just 197 innings since signing a five year, $100 million extension with the Padres after the 2022 season.

Requiring Tommy John surgery after the 2024 season, Musgrove spent all of 2025 recovering and pitched with caution this spring. But after a March 4 start against Team Great Britain, Musgrove struggled in his recovery, and now Stammen expects him to see some time on the IL (h/t Dennis Lin, The Athletic).

Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the IL, Craig Stammen said. Musgrove, who did not recover as well as hoped after his March 4 start against Great Britain, hasn’t thrown in a little more than a week.
— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) March 16, 2026

As unsurprising as the news is given his recent injury history, the possibility of Musgrove missing time would be a significant blow to the Padres' plans of contention this season.

After losing Dylan Cease to free agency and veteran Yu Darvish to UCL surgery, the Padres went and filled out their rotation depth chart, signing multiple past-their-prime starting pitchers who are looking for a shot to reestablish their value.

Chief among them are German Marquez and Walker Buehler, both of whom now seem likely to crack the Opening Day rotation in the wake of Musgrove's injury and right-hander Matt Waldron's concurrent struggles with hemorrhoids, which do not have a clear timeline to recovery.

A detailed view of a San Diego Padres hat.© Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Marquez was signed to a one-year, $1.75 million major league contract, so his spot in the rotation is all but secured for the time being.

Buehler, who is on a minor-league deal, is benefitting from the fact that many of his would-be competitors for the final rotation spot are all having a dreadful spring: Triston McKenzie (MiLB deal), Marco Gonzalez (MiLB deal) and J.P. Sears all have ERAs over 8 in Spring Training action.

Buehler's biggest remaining competition for the fifth spot is the 33-year-old left-hander Kyle Hart, who opened the 2025 season in the Padres rotation and has yet to give up a run in 11 and 2/3 Spring Training innings this year.

But Hart struggled mightily at the major league level last year to the tune of a 5.86 ERA, and he lacks the pedigree of Buehler, who has multiple All-Star appearances and Cy Young votes under his belt.

If the Padres intend on using a five-man rotation to open the season, they'll have to decide who that fifth starter is sooner rather than later. And more likely than not, the decision will come down to Buehler and Hart.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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