Sep 23, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres designated hitter Luis Arraez (4) hits a two-run home run during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images David Frerker-Imagn Images

Padres' Luis Arraez Receives $14 Million Free Agency Prediction

Originally posted on San Diego Padres on SI
By Aaron Coloma | Last updated Nov 11, 2025 3:00 PM ET

Luis Arraez is one of several San Diego Padres to enter free agency this offseason, and NBC Sports' Matthew Pouliot believes he's in for a smaller deal in the winter.

The Padres acquired Arraez a couple months into the 2024 season, and he instantly made his mark with the Friars. He played 117 games for the Padres in 2024, batting .318 and hitting four home runs. He struck out just 18 times in a Padres uniform that season.

His .318 batting average earned him the batting title for the third season in a row, becoming the first player to win a batting title on three different teams.

Arraez had a down season in San Diego after winning the batting title in 2024, hitting .292 — the lowest batting average of his career — and ending the 2025 season with an OPS+ below league average, which marked the first time in his career he had done so.

"Arraez’s down year came at the worst possible time, as he hit .292/.327/.392 in 2025 after coming in at .328/.371/.426 over the previous three years," Pouliot wrote. "He doesn’t seem like a legitimate second baseman at this point, and he needs to bat at least .310 to be of much help as a first baseman. He’s just turning 29 in April, so a bounce-back is certainly possible. But it’s hard to see why any team would want to commit to him for more than a year or two."

Pouliot predicted Arraez to land a one-year, $14 million contract this offseason.

Despite his lower averages, Arraez still managed to lead the National League in hits this season and recorded eight home runs and 61 RBIs, both of which are the second-highest totals he's ever recorded in a season.

On top of that, he is the best contact hitter in the game, with his whiff percentage, strikeouts percentage and squared-up percentage all ranking in the 100th percentile in MLB.

While the Padres aren't likely to bring back Arraez for 2026, his proficiency with a bat will definitely land him a solid contract before the end of the offseason.