Padres Named Top Landing Spot for Potential $200 Million Ace in Free Agency

In any event, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that one team doesn't want to sign Valdez — who becomes a free agent after the World Series — as a result.

Is that team the San Diego Padres? Not in the opinion of Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who also named the Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers as possible suitors for Valdez.

Valdez is projected for a six-year, $200 million contract by Spotrac. In terms of average annual value, that puts Valdez's outlay in the same neighborhood of what the Padres used to sign over-30 starters Joe Musgrove (five years, $100 million in August 2022) and Yu Darvish (six years, $108 million in February 2023) about six months apart not long ago.

Would the Padres be willing and able to extend their budget again for a veteran starter who turns 32 in December and carries some baggage from the Salazar incident?

The short answer: possibly, but not without some other players coming off the books first.

Darvish's salary decreases from $21 million to $16 million next year, alleviating $5 million for non-competitive balance tax purposes. Infielder Luis Arraez and pitcher Dylan Cease (combined 2024 salaries: $27.75 million) are also free agents at year's end, potentially freeing up more money for the Padres to sign Valdez.

If Spotrac's projection is anywhere near accurate, the Padres might have to give all of the money saved via Darvish, Cease, and Arraez's contracts to one player in order to sign Valdez. And putting in all their chips with one free agent would be out of character for general manager A.J. Preller's historical preferences.

One factor more than any other bolster's Heyman's case for connecting the Padres to Valdez: they will likely need to bolster their starting rotation this offseason.

Besides the uncertain futures of Cease and Nestor Cortes on the free agent market, the Padres will have to monitor Musgrove's innings in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, assuming he returns in 2026 as expected.

In order to acquire Freddy Fermin, the Padres traded depth starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to the Kansas City Royals on July 31. Both were (and are) in line to pitch more innings next year.

For all of Valdez's durability — he's thrown no fewer than 180 innings the last four years, including the postseason — the Padres might need to find more innings this winter than one starter can pitch in a year.

That points to another offseason in which Preller will try to find value on the margins of free agency and exhaust his trade options, rather than fall into a protracted bidding war for a marquee free agent. That's effectively what happened last winter, when the Padres signed Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million contract in February.

Speaking of Pivetta, he is owed $20.5 million in 2026 after making just $2.5 million in 2025, further limiting Preller's free agent budget.

Could Valdez find his way to San Diego next year? It's certainly possible, but signing him will invite questions that go beyond how much his agent is demanding from interested teams.

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