Padres option Kyle Hart

10:25am: Per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, the club will indeed go with a four-man rotation for a while. Bergert is expected to be recalled as the corresponding move. He will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Since he’s been acting as a starter in Triple-A, he will presumably fill a long relief role with the big league club.

10:10am: The Padres have optioned left-hander Kyle Hart to Triple-A El Paso, according to the club’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. No corresponding move is listed but they will presumably bring up another pitcher before tonight’s game.

The club took a flier on Hart this winter, signing him to a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee. That was a bet on his performance in Korea last year. His previous track record in affiliated ball wasn’t great but he had good results with the KBO’s NC Dinos in 2024. He logged 157 innings over 26 starts with a 2.69 earned run average, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. It’s never a guarantee that a pitcher can transfer those kinds of results to North American ball, but the Friars had rotation needs and a tight budget, so it was an understandable bet to make.

At the start of camp, the Padres had four rotation spots spoken for by Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta. Hart was part of a competition for the fifth spot alongside Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and Stephen Kolek. In the spring, Darvish landed on the IL to start the season due to elbow inflammation, opening a second spot. The competition was also thinned out when Waldron suffered an oblique strain.

That led to Vásquez and Hart both securing rotation spots to open the season. Hart has made five starts thus far, tossing 21 innings with 14 earned runs, leading to an ERA of 6.00. His 6.7% walk rate is quite good but his 17.8% strikeout rate and 33.3% ground ball rate are both subpar marks.

Vásquez has been better at preventing runs but with less impressive stuff under the hood. He has a 3.97 ERA through his five starts but with an 8.9% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet, despite a subpar 39.2% ground ball rate, perhaps suggesting he’s walking a tightrope. His 6.94 SIERA certainly doesn’t expect him to maintain his current run prevention.

Hart, on the other hand, has allowed six home runs already. SIERA, which expects such things to normalize over time, gives Hart a 4.57 so far this year. Regardless, these are small samples and Hart hasn’t been overpowering. The Padres have decided to send him to El Paso, at least for a few starts. Optional assignments for pitchers come with a 15-day minimum, so Hart won’t be able to come back until the club’s series against the Rockies May 9th to 11th.

It’s possible the decision was motivated by the schedule. The Padres were off yesterday and then have further off-days on Monday and Thursday next week. Perhaps they will go with a four-man rotation for a while. They will play six straight from May 2nd to 7th, which will be before Hart can come back. They could use a spot start or a bullpen game to get through that stretch and then bring Hart back up, if they so choose.

It’s also possible that the club could explore Hart as a reliever. Though his results have been uneven so far, lefties are slashing just .100/.100/.100  against him in the early going. Righties, on the other hand, have a monster .333/.386/.698 line. His changeup, a pitch usually used to neutralize hitters with the platoon advantage, has allowed a .533 batting average. Perhaps transitioning to a lefty specialist role would be a good move, though these are tiny samples and this is entirely speculative.

It’s also possible the Padres want to get a look at Kolek. He has a 6.38 ERA through five starts for El Paso but it’s possible to look beyond that and see encouraging signs elsewhere. The Chihuahuas play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which always requires a grain of salt. Kolek has a .358 batting average on balls in play and 62.9% strand rate, which are both to the unlucky side. His 18% strikeout rate isn’t great but he has kept walks down to a tiny 3.6% level while getting grounders on 56.6% of balls in play. Ryan Bergert is another option on the 40-man roster. He has a 5.16 ERA at El Paso but with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate.

More information on the club’s plans will likely be forthcoming soon. Time will tell if this is just a brief reset for Hart during a light portion of the club’s schedule or a more meaningful pivot. At least for the next few days, they will likely operate with a longer bullpen with two off-days in the next week.

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images