Padres Reliever Concerned With Sudden Drop in Velocity

San Diego Padres right-handed reliever Jeremiah Estrada is not off to as dominant a start as he would have liked in 2026.

A sudden drop in his velocity seems to have played a role in that.

Estrada, who threw just one fastball below 95 mph all of last season, has already thrown more than 50 fastballs this year below 95 mph, including Cactus League play.

His average fastball velocity in 2025 was 97.9 mph, which ranked in the 94th percentile in Major League Baseball. This year, it's 95.0 mph, which ranks in the 59th percentile.

After Thursday's game in which Estrada pitched the 10th inning and part of the 11th — allowing both ghost runners to score — the right-hander admitted he was concerned about his sudden velocity decrease.

“It’s not hard to know this is a worry,” Estrada said to reporters. “It’s kind of a bit of a shock.”

Estrada doesn't know the reason for his dip in velocity. His grandma, however, has a theory.

“My grandma freaking said that I look too skinny,” Estrada said. “So she’s bringing me tamales tomorrow.”

Estrada hasn't allowed an earned run since his 2026 debut, when he allowed four runs against the Detroit Tigers and blew a game the Padres should have won. Overall, he's pitched seven innings, sporting a 5.14 ERA with eight strikeouts to five walks.

“We’ll dissect it,” Estrada said of his velocity decrease. “We have the best pitching staff in baseball. All it takes is just go back into the office and look back at what’s going on. I’m trying my hardest to say I’m not worried about it. But I am not. This game is about taking time and patience.

"You’ve got to figure it out quick, though, it’s the big leagues.”

The Padres do have the luxury of taking some time with Estrada, as they have a dominant bullpen top to bottom and have another All-Star reliever set to join the mix.

Jason Adam, who opened the season on the injured list as he recovered from his ruptured quad tendon, is back with the team and likely to be activated on Friday or Saturday.

While the Padres would have a difficult decision to make regarding who would get optioned or designated for assignment, the team could place Estrada on the injured list if they want to take a little more time to look into his velocity troubles. It remains to be seen if that's something the team is considering.

“I don’t want to say that I’m worried,” Estrada said, “because it’s lingering in my head a little bit that I’m worried.”

Estrada has been a dominant mainstay in the Padres bullpen ever since joining the team from the Chicago Cubs after the 2023 season

In 2024, he had a 2.95 ERA with 94 strikeouts across 61 innings pitched. In 2025, he had a 3.45 ERA with 108 strikeouts across 73 innings pitched.

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