Pavin Smith’s Recent Slump Highlights Concerns About Bat

The Diamondbacks find themselves in an interesting situation with Pavin Smith. Smith has been their primary designated hitter option against right-handed pitchers in 2025.

At the surface level, it appears Smith is making the most of his new role. In 62 games, he's hitting .277 with five home runs and a .852 OPS. FanGraphs' wRC+ metric, which accounts for league and park factors, estimates his offense to be 40% better than the average hitter with a 140 wRC+. That is the sixth-best mark among primary DHs.

That's production the Diamondbacks will certainly take if that's where his full-season numbers ultimately end up. However, some underlying concerns threaten to undermine the rest of his season.

The first is his .277 average is propped up by a .402 average on balls put into play. That high a BABIP is such an outlier, not only compared to his career mark of .296, but has only been done seven times since 2000 (min. 400 plate appearances). As the season continues, that number is expected to regress toward his career norms.

The painful part about a potential BABIP regression is that Smith carries a very high strikeout rate. His 29.8% strikeout rate ranks in the fifth percentile among major league hitters. That's a lot of outs where he doesn't put the bat on the ball, which, combined with likely BABIP regression, could tank both his average and slugging percentage.

While it hasn't shown up on his actual results, his extremely high strikeout rate has heavily influenced his expected stats. Even taking into account his quality of contact, his 2025 expected batting average and slugging are at .225 and .406. Those metrics rank in the 12th and 35th percentiles among major league hitters.

There are some positives in Smith's batting profile, as he is a very selective hitter. His 21.2% chase rate and 16.4% walk rate sit at the 87th and 99th percentiles. For the most part, he makes pitchers throw strikes to get him out. He has overall solid batted ball metrics, as his hard-hit rate and barrel rate are both above the 50th percentile.

For Smith's season not to unravel as a result of BABIP regression and hurt his chances of keeping a consistent role, he's going to have to cut down on the strikeouts and find more power. His home run against the Mariners on Wednesday was his first in 40 games.

In that stretch, his BABIP dropped to a .324 rate. However, due to a strikeout rate over 30%, he hit just .213 with a .632 OPS. He still drew enough walks to prevent the OPS from completely tanking, maintaining a .336 on-base percentage. His wRC+ has nosedived to 83, 17% below league average, over his last 128 plate appearances.

The combination of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. getting hot and Smith cooling off has resulted in a change in the lineup. After batting in the top third of the lineup most of the year, he's dropped more toward the bottom of the lineup. Smith has batted in the sixth or lower in 15 of his last 19 starts. That's an area in the lineup where his elite on-base skills, but declining contact quality, can still be effective.

Looking at the projections for the remainder of the 2025 season, FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Smith to be a .249 hitter with a .751 OPS. That adds up to a 111 wRC+, which is still above average but perhaps not the impact bat he was in the first month of the season.

It's worth noting that the projection has a .307 BABIP and a 23.2% strikeout rate. It may be taking into account his 20.5% career strikeout rate entering the 2025 season as much as his 2025 rate. Smith has not shown any signs of his strikeout rate dropping this season, as his whiff rate remains well above 30%.

The Diamondbacks will be hoping to be in a position to buy when the trade deadline comes in six weeks. Smith's performance at the plate will likely play a role in not only if they'll buy, but if they look to upgrade the DH position for the stretch run and optimize their lineup's run production.

The Orioles' Ryan O'Hearn comes to mind as a potential trade candidate. He's sporting a 151 wRC+ in 56 games with Baltimore this season. As a rental, he would not come at too significant a cost than some of the other big bats that could become available.

However, that means taking on just under $3 million in salary, which could be better spent to fortify a bullpen desperate for quality arms.