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As the July 31 MLB trade deadline approaches, questions abound regarding whether the Arizona Diamondbacks will buy, sell, or take a more nuanced tack by attempting to do both at the same time. Of course it all depends on where the team goes from here in the standings. On Thursday we took stock of the team's current situation in the standings, on the field, and in the trainer's room.
Related Content: Taking Stock of Diamondbacks at the Halfway Point in the Season
One area that needs to be revisited is the team's current and future payroll situation. There are numerous moving parts that could influence certain decisions. As we dive into all the possibilities in the coming days, it will be useful to have an understanding of where the team stands with regard to payroll.
For example, questions abound regarding the qualifying offer, and whether the D-backs should make one to Zac Gallen, or perhaps a number of other players. That number was $21.05 million for 2025, and could go up to $22 million for 2026.
What about contract extensions for players such as Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, or Merrill Kelly? If unable or unwilling to extend in-season, could any of these players be brought back after the season is over on free agent deals?
Arizona Diamondbacks Current and Future Payroll Commit
The 2025 opening day payroll was estimated to be approximately $187 million by Cots Baseball Contracts. Roster Resources at FanGraphs estimates the current 2025 payroll to be $196 million. That's a wide range of course, but it's notable that whichever number is closer to reality, it blew by 2024's franchise-record $173 million.
Looking ahead to 2026, the D-backs have a large number of free agents coming off the books. That number adds up to be approximately $75 million. That number is offset however by escalating dollars for players on guaranteed contracts and arbitration-eligible players. By the time we take out the free agents, but add back in the escalating dollars, we are left with a payroll budget number that is already up to $143 million.
Note: See tables below for detailed breakdowns of the four categories above.
Replacing Free Agents and Injured Players
The list of free agents and injured players that need to be replaced is very long, but based on the numbers above, the team has approximately $50 million to spend before they reach 2025's already-record spending levels.
Corbin Burnes will be out for virtually all of 2026 due to Tommy John surgery. Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk are likely out until at least the All-Star break next year.
In addition there are no fewer than eight free agents on the current active roster and two more on the injured list. Of those, Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Josh Naylor, Zac Gallen are players of importance in terms of their role on the team and the playing time they receive.
Some of these player may possibly be replaced by internal, low-cost players. But the combination of injuries to key prospects at the minor league level, and lack of high-end pitcher development could leave the team in a tight spot to replace so many players.
SUMMARY
With $50 million to spend next year, give or take, that might limit the risks the team is willing to take now. For example if a player such as Gallen or Kelly is given a qualifying offer and accepts it, the team would be on the hook for $22 million and then only have $38 million left to address up to 10 more roster vacancies, most of them by impact starting players.
We don't know how much owner Ken Kendrick may allow Mike Hazen to increase payroll, either at the trade deadline, or heading into 2026. While Kendrick certainly has a good idea of what he can provide to Hazen for budget in the coming month, 2026 may depend on whether or not the team stays in the race and gets back to the Postseason.
Year over year attendance through 38 home games is up almost 3,000 per game, growing from 28,626 in 2024 to 31,420 so far in 2025. The team is loath to sell at the deadline, not only because of their competitive nature, but also because of the negative impacts that would have on attendance and revenue going forward.
On the other hand, should the team pull off a near-miracle and overcome all their injuries and setbacks this year to make the Postseason, the good will and excitement that would create might serve to push the team's attendance and finances to even greater heights.
Another factor to consider is that the team just won a long-fought battle to get public funding for the Chase Field. That may free Kendrick to increase the payroll even further, or at the very least maintain these levels.
NOTE: The state funds do not go into the team's coffers, but stability in the stadium situation can only help to deepen the resolve of ownership to bring home a winner.
Related Content: Chase Field Funding Bill HB2704 Passes Vote, Governor Hobbs to Sign
Hopefully this article has helped to serve provide a clearer foundation for the payroll parameters Mike Hazen is working under when making decisions. Stay tuned to Arizona Diamondbacks On SI as we continue to analyze and track the trade deadline happenings and possibilities.
Arizona Diamondbacks On SI
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