Phillies To Activate Jesús Luzardo

The Phillies are planning to activate Jesús Luzardo off the 15-day injured list tomorrow, according to interim manager Don Mattingly (via Matt Gelb of The Athletic). Luzardo will be available out of the bullpen for Game 162. The Phillies lost a 12-1 blowout against the Rays today, so they’ll try to lock down the final NL Wild Card spot in the last game of the regular season. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes that right-hander Zack Wheeler will draw the start. That will leave him unavailable until Game 3 of a potential Wild Card Series on short rest.

Luzardo has thrown 178 2/3 innings over 29 starts this season. His 30.4% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, 2.87 earned run average, and 48.3% ground ball rate are all career bests in a full season. FanGraphs values him at 5.5 wins above replacement, and Luzardo ranks fourth-best among qualified National League starters in that regard (his teammate Cristopher Sánchez ranking second with 6.2 fWAR). He’s been on the IL since September 12th with left shoulder inflammation but will now return after a minimum absence.

The Diamondbacks just lost 10-7 to the Padres, so they’ll enter tomorrow with an 86-75 record, with the Phillies at 87-74. If the Phillies win tomorrow, Arizona will be eliminated, but if the Phillies lose and the D-backs win, the Phillies would be eliminated as the D-backs have a better divisional record and thus hold the tiebreaker advantage.

Philadelphia has now lost four straight games, and they’ve had to get creative with their rotation with the season on the line. Aaron Nola started tonight on two days’ rest. He only lasted one inning and gave up three earned runs on four hits, including a home run by the Rays’ Junior Caminero. They surely would have liked to save Wheeler for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, but they’ll now be forced to burn him in the regular season finale.

If the Phillies hold on for the Wild Card, their playoff rotation will have to be sorted out as well. Sánchez threw 100 pitches yesterday and would be on normal rest for Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, or Game 1 on short rest. The latter might be a more appealing option than Andrew Painter on normal rest, as Painter has struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 126 2/3 innings this year. Theoretically, Wheeler could pitch well tomorrow and Luzardo won’t be needed in relief, leaving him free for Game 1. There’s a certain amount of risk there as well, as Luzardo hasn’t pitched since September 7th and could be rusty after that layoff.