Pirates listening on star but a deal is seen as unlikely

Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz is thought to be available on the trade market, though a deal seems to be a long shot. Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the club is not shopping him but has received plenty of calls and is willing to listen to offers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com frames the situation similarly, saying that the Bucs would have to be bowled over by an offer in order to pull the trigger. Jeff Passan of ESPN is even more emphatic, saying that Cruz isn’t going anywhere.

The possibility of a Cruz trade first seemed to open about a month ago, when it was reported that the Pirates had very few untouchable players ahead of this year’s deadline. Apart from Paul Skenes and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen, it seemed everyone else was on the table.

A lot of the club’s focus seems to be on players they signed to long-term deals who are no longer in their plans. That would be Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller. Both Hayes and Reynolds have had disappointing results lately and their contracts are seen as underwater. Keller has been pitching well but he may be expendable since the club has so many younger and cheaper pitchers who could replace him.

Cruz would be a different situation. He is still young and cheaply affordable. He can be retained for three seasons beyond this one. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time at the end of this season.

His performance on the field has not been perfect but he is clearly talented and valuable. He has some of the top raw abilities in the majors, frequently topping Statcast leaderboards with his exit velocity, speed and arm strength. On the other hand, he strikes out a lot and his defense is wobbly. By the eye test, he takes some awkward routes but he can make up for those sometimes with his excellent speed.

He has been punched out in 31.9% of his plate appearances this year but he’s also drawn walks at a 12.5% clip and hit 16 home runs. The result is a .219/.319/.419 batting line and 102 wRC+. He has 33 steals in 37 attempts. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -7 this year but Outs Above Average has him at +2. Put it all together and it’s still a strong player. FanGraphs credited him with 3.5 wins above replacement last year and he’s on a similar pace this year, currently at 2.0 fWAR.

Teams will naturally be attracted to that, especially those with notable budgetary concerns. However, from Pittsburgh’s perspective, it’s understandable that they would set a high asking price. They have developed a huge pool of pitching talent but have struggled to do the same with their position players. Players like Hayes, Henry Davis, Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo and others have not turned out as hoped.

Cruz, on the other hand, is the club’s best position player. He’s the only one on the team to have produced more than 1.1 fWAR this year. Last year, he was the only guy to get beyond 2.1 fWAR. In other words, trading him would blow a huge hole in the lineup. And the lineup already has a few of those.

The Pirates aren’t contending this year but presumably want to get over the hump soon. They haven’t been in the playoffs since 2015. They have an exciting group of young pitchers, headlined by Skenes, and surely want to build a winning club around them. They’re already having a hard time doing that with Cruz on the roster. Unless they get offered something too good to refuse, it seems he is likely staying in Pittsburgh.

Teams like the Royals, Guardians, Mets, Phillies, Tigers and Angels could be looking for center field help, though they may have a better chance at getting guys like Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins, Harrison Bader or Alek Thomas. The Pirates will listen to Cruz offers but will likely spend more time talking about Keller, Reynolds, Hayes and others in the next week.