Pirates' Paul Skenes Unlikely to Sign Extension

PITTSBURGH — Pittsburgh Pirates right-handed starting pitcher Paul Skenes is already one of the best players in baseball and one of the most valuable players in the game.

The Pirates currently have five years — including the 2025 season — of club control over Skenes before he hits free agency and likely commands one of the biggest, if not the biggest, contracts in MLB history.

This includes the first three years, 2024-26, of pre-arbitration, where he will make around the MLB minimum, which is $760,000 for the 2025 season. He currently makes more than that MLB minimum, with an $875,000 salary for this campaign.

It also includes three more years of salary arbitration, 2027-29, if the Pirates don't have a contract with Skenes for each of those seasons.

Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said on 93.7 The Fan that the Pirates have a 'one percent' chance of signing Skenes to an extension.

He argued that even outside of salary demands, they haven't put a competitive team around Skenes and that until they do that, he won't have much interest in sticking around, especially if they decide and trade him.

"I get that the argument that, 'Oh, they'd have more money to extend him,' but you can't force someone to sign a contract extension and if they don't have any success in his first three seasons in Pittsburgh, assuming they don't make the playoffs next year, then why would he want to sign an extension here, when he knows he's probably getting moved in the next couple of years anyway and especially if he knows that 2027 very well could be a shortened season due to the lockout," Hiles said.

"That means that they're going into that 2027 season with his name being at the height of trade rumors pretty much until it happens. It could be that year or moving forward."

"So I don't see it impacting it a ton. If anything, maybe a shortened season gives the Pirates a really good chance to catch lightning in a bottle and if it's only a 100-game season, maybe they play well in that first half and they get to the postseason and that could change."

"I mean, if they start winning, the whole conversation about Skenes' future here changes. If they win some division titles and get to the playoffs and have some postseason success, maybe there is a formula to keep him here. Maybe he's interested in sticking around. Maybe they do have some money to spend on him then."

"But right now, it's hard to picture this team being super-competitive in the immediate future and it's hard imagining Skenes wanting to stick around for a team that hasn't really supplied him with a lot of other talent."

Pirates general manager Ben Cherington shut down trade rumors surrounding Skenes back in late May.

Hiles doesn't think that Skenes will demand a trade, especially not right now, citing his character, but that future years of futility with the Pirates might see him change his mind down the road.

"I don't think he'll demand a trade," Hiles said. "I think that, one, Paul's just not that type of guy. I think he'll maybe get to a point where he voices some frustration about the team not being successful. I think it's too early to see him do that, but as he continues to develop as a leader here, I think we're going to see his voice come out a little bit more in the next couple of years and you'll see him start sharing his opinion a little bit more on certain things."

"I don't ever see him demanding a trade, but I don't know if he has to. I think if they keep playing poorly and he keeps doing what he does, they're going to have to put themselves in a situation where it might be best for the organization to move him."

"I'm not saying this year. I'm saying years down the road."

Skenes has just a 4-8 record in 20 outings this season, but the Pirates offense has scored more than five runs in just four of his starts.

He ranks amongst the best pitchers in baseball in 2025, including first in ERA (2.01), tied for third in opposing batting average (.189), tied for fifth in WHIP (0.93) and innings pitched (121.0), plus eighth in strikeouts (131).

Skenes also started for the National League in the 2025 All-Star Game at Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves, on July 15. He became the first pitcher ever that started consecutive All-Star games in the first two seasons of their career.