The Pirates announced that right-hander JT Brubaker underwent surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, also known as Tommy John surgery. They project that he can return in 14-16 months.
As frustrating as this news is for Brubaker and the Pirates, it doesn’t come as a shock. Brubaker landed on the 15-day injured list at the start of the season with elbow discomfort and was transferred to the 60-day injured list a few days later. It was reported over a week ago that Tommy John surgery was on the table and then reported just Tuesday that Brubaker was seeking a second opinion on his elbow. It seems that his fate could be avoided no longer, and he finally underwent the procedure today.
This will now wipe out the entirety of his 2023 season and at least a portion of his 2024 campaign as well. It’s a frustrating setback as Brubaker was looking to build off a strong 2022 campaign. He made 28 starts for the Bucs last year with a 4.69 ERA that probably doesn’t do him justice. He struck out 22.8% of batters faced while walking just 8.4% of them and getting grounders at a 44% clip. His .334 batting average on balls in play and 66.8% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of league average, which is why his 3.92 FIP and 3.97 SIERA came in well below his ERA.
He’ll now have to go through an extensive rehab process before getting the chance to take a step forward. He finished last year with exactly three years of MLB service time, allowing him to qualify for arbitration for the first time. He and the club agreed to a $2.275M salary for 2023, and he’ll likely be looking at a similar rate for next year. The arbitration system works to push salaries up year over year, and players usually wind up at the same price point after missing an entire season. Brubaker is currently slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after the 2025 season.
The Pirates will now navigate the rest of the year without Brubaker in their rotation mix. That leaves them with Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez, Roansy Contreras and Johan Oviedo for now, though Hill and Velasquez are both one one-year deals. Assuming the Bucs don’t stay in the playoff race all summer, they would each be logical trade candidates, which could open opportunities for younger arms like Luis Ortiz or Quinn Priester.
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