Pictured: Mitch Keller (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Pirates vs. Blue Jays pick: MLB odds, predictions for Sat. 6/1

Originally posted on Action Network | By D.J. James | Last updated Jun 1, 2024 2:26 AM ET

Yusei Kikuchi has been good this year with strong expected metrics, but in May, he's started to look like the spotty version we've seen in the past. He and the Toronto Blue Jays take on Mitch Keller and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays have a more potent lineup than the Pirates at the top. For much of the season, the Blue Jays have been subpar, but in May, they fared well against righties.

In relief, these teams are comparable, but since these starters and hitters are also comparable, the Pirates hold value.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays odds have the Blue Jays as -154 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 8 (-108o/ -112u). Find my Pirates vs Blue Jays prediction on the moneyline below.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds

Saturday, June 1, 3:07 p.m. ET, SportsNet PT

Pirates Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -176	8 -108o / -112u	+130

Blue Jays Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +146	8 -108o / -112u	-154

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Keller has a 3.59 ERA and a 4.64 xERA on the bump this year. Regression is in the cards because of his Average Exit Velocity (89.6 mph) and Hard-Hit Rate (17th percentile). One saving grace has been walk rate, which is well above average. He can also get hitters to chase. The Jays are pretty disciplined, but Keller may be able to cut into that.

Offensively, the Pirates had a 90 wRC+ with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate in May off of lefties. Andrew McCutchen and the top of the order has done well against lefties in general. Although the bottom drops off, they should be able to get by Kikuchi.

The Pirates have a 4.43 xFIP in the bullpen and four relievers with an xFIP under 4.00.

Toronto Blue Jays

Now, Kikuchi has been better than Keller this year, but Keller has had the superior May. The veteran lefty owns a 3.25 ERA against a 3.16 xERA.

His Average Exit Velocity is 90-plus mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 23rd percentile. His ground-ball rate is slightly above average. He rarely walks many hitters, but in two of his last three starts, he has failed to make it through five innings. This is his biggest concern.

Toronto's lineup has had better numbers against righties in May. Collectively, the Jays have a sub-18% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate, paired with a 110 wRC+.

That said, their lineup is top heavy as Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are carrying the brunt of the load against righties.