Pitchers Who Have Been Shockingly Excellent to Start 2025

In terms of quality of contact, Canning has been nothing special, as while he keeps the ball on the ground at a strong 54.3% rate, the amount of hard contact he surrenders is not good. His 48.3% hard-hit rate places him in the 10th percentile of league arms, while his AVG exit velocity of 91.9 mph sits all the way down in the sixth percentile.

He also holds a below average walk rate, ranking in the 40th percentile, indicating why his WHIP might be higher than one would expect from a pitcher with a sub-2.50 ERA.

That being said, while it may not at groundbreaking margin, Canning is striking hitters out at respectable and above average rate, sitting in the 62nd percentile in K-rate, 61st in chase rate, and the 60th percentile in whiff rate.

It’s been a good ride so far, and while a 2.36 ERA may be wishful thinking to assume he’ll maintain. With solid K-rates and a strong performing four seam fastball (.189 BA, .164 xBA, .378 SLG, .281 xSLG) though, perhaps a season like his 3.53 xERA projects he’ll have is in order.

Casey Mize, DET

Now we move to Detroit, where Casey Mize is finally looking like the pitcher Tigers fans have been long waiting to see since he was drafted first overall in the 2018 MLB Draft.

It’s been a major league road marred by injury and mediocrity, but 2025 has been kind to the righty.

Mize took his 1.89 ERA form from spring training and has turned it into a 2.53 ERA start in his first seven outings of the 2025 regular season. He pairs that with a shimmering 1.01 WHIP and .215 BAA.

Now like Canning, Mize doesn’t blow anyone away in many underlying metrics. But unlike Canning, he doesn’t do anything particularly poorly.

His quality of contact might be the worst thing about his game this year, but only just sits right around average in terms of hard-hit rate (52nd percentile) and AVG exit velocity (43rdpercentile). That being said he’s keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 63rd percentile rate.

He may only be getting hitters strikeout at a 44th percentile clip, but he’s inducing a 28.3% whiff rate, placing him in the 70th percentile of league arms, and he walks hitters at just a 5.4% clip, landing him in the 84th percentile.

All of this has led to some impressive expected metrics for the 28-year-old righty, as a 2.68 xERA and .208 xBA indicates that this Mize is likely going nowhere.

Kris Bubic, KCR

Kris Bubic might be one of the best stories in baseball, having rebounded from Tommy John in 2024 to rejoining the rotation and thriving in it in 2025.

And thriving is not an overstatement in the slightest, as through nine starts Bubic holds a 1.66 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 1.10 WHIP and .223 BAA. This is in large part due to the fact that five of his nine starts have seen him throw to 5.0+ innings without allowing an earned run.

His strikeout, whiff and walk rate all rank above the 70th percentile and he’s getting hitters to chase at an 84th percentile.

He’s only surrendering hard contact at 37.7% clip and limits hitters to a very strong 86.9 mph AVG exit velocity.

Similar to Canning, there’s reason to believe that Bubic’s Cy Young worthy numbers are due for a bit of reality check. However, the Royals would likely be ecstatic if they were to get the type of pitcher that his expected metrics predict he can be, with 3.16 xERA and .236 xBA, especially considering he’s less than a year removed from being an bullpen arm on the mend.

Shane Smith, CWS

Every so often a Rule 5 Draft pick comes along and finds a way to seamlessly fit in with his new organization, and that’s the case of last winter’s first overall selection in Shane Smith.

At 14-30 the White Sox haven’t done a ton right this season, but one major positive that they have had is the strength of their rotation. With a 3.78 team ERA, the White Sox rank 12th among MLB staffs and big reason for this has been Smith’s lights out performance on the mound.

Through eight starts, Smith has thrown to a 2.08 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.08 WHIP and .204 BAA.

While he may not be anything to write home in terms of his strikeout ability, with a 7.89 K/9, he’s managed to post above average quality of contact metrics. His 39.5% hard-hit rate ranks in the league’s 58th percentile, his AVG exit velocity of 88.7% sits in the 64th percentile and most impressively, his 4.2% barrel rate ranks in the 89th percentile.

He also manages to have hitters whiff at his stuff at a 70th percentile clip of 28.5% and when hitters do happen to make contact, he’s managed to keep that contact on the ground with a 69th percentile margin of 47.1%.

Even if he does drop down towards a his 3.34 xERA and .234 xBA, then he’d still be a bright spot on this White Sox roster that seldom shines.

Tyler Mahle, TEX

Similar to Bubic, Tyler Mahle has taken the league by storm in 2025 in his rebound from Tommy John.

Mahle’s 1.47 ERA and .179 BAA both sit fourth amongst qualified MLB starters and his 0.96 WHIP sits ninth. This earned him honorable mention recognition in Just Baseball’s Pitchers of the Month list for April.

The Rangers’ righty also happens to be one of the best arms in MLB for limiting quality contact, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and AVG exit velocity.

The downside of Mahle’s performance that leads him to the discrepancies in his expected metrics (3.34 xERA and .244 xBA) is his relatively poor strikeout metrics and average walk rate. He sits between the 30th and 36th percentile in K-rate, whiff rate and chase rate and in just the 50th percentile in BB%.

Considering it’s not always guaranteed how someone returns form Tommy John, the fact that Mahle has found a way to thrive, even if he does regress to his expected metrics it would still rank amongst his best seasons as a big league starter.

Matthew Liberatore, STL

Speaking of feel good stories, after parts of three major league seasons of mediocrity, with the most notable being his 4.40 ERA season in 2024 which was spent primarily out of the bullpen, Matthew Liberatore has been a pleasant surprise in 2025.

Through eight starts so far, the 25-year-old southpaw has thrown to a 3.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .226 BAA.

He’s been one of the best pitchers in the league when it comes to avoiding issuing the free pass (95th percentile walk rate of 3.8%) and getting them to chase outside the zone (86th percentile chase rate of 33.3%).

Now, he does surrender a significant amount hard-contact, with a 16th percentile hard-hit rate and 29th percentile AVG exit velocity. That being said though, he does keep the ball on the ground at a respectable rate though to mitigate the risk of his poor quality of contact metrics, with a 46.7% groundball rate ranking in the 68th percentile.

All of this has reflected very well in Liberatore’s expected metrics, as the numbers actually anticipate he’ll perform better than how his strong start already looks with a sub-3.00 xERA of 2.93.

So get excited Cardinals fans, Liberatore is finally looking like the talent that warranted him being a first round draft pick back in 2018.

Tomoyuki Sugano, BAL

Finally we have Tomoyuki Sugano, one of the more notable signings by Mike Elias this winter for the rotation.

Now, the rotation has failed to really provide much in terms of good results this season, as their staff sits 28th in baseball in both ERA and WHIP (5.66 and 1.44, respectively), 29th in BAA (.275) and 30th in FIP (5.41), but that’s not been to the fault of Sugano.

The 35-year-old rookie has done his part to weather the storm of this starting group as he’s made the transition from NPB to MLB look seamless.

Through nine starts, he’s sporting a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .228 BAA.

Sugano has done his due diligence of avoiding issuing walks (93rd percentile 4.3% walk rate), getting hitters to chase (79th percentile 31.5% chase rate) and limiting hard contact while keeping the ball on the ground (71st percentile 36.9% hard-hit and 65th percentile 45.8% groundball rate).

That being said he only manages to strike hitters out at fifth percentile rate, induce whiffs at a ninth percentile clip.

And his expected metrics tend to lean more towards his rough swing and miss metrics as opposed to his average looking walk, chase and ground ball rates. His xERA is at pretty rough looking 4.53 and his xBA is equally as poor at .273 mark.

While expected metrics only carry so much weight, as the game is played on the field, that being said Orioles fans should keep their excitement tempered with Sugano and enjoy the start he’s had while it lasts.