Predicting the 2026 World Baseball Classic Tournament

The 2026 World Baseball Classic will mark the sixth installment of the international tournament, and the fifth since the first one 20 years ago. Twenty teams across four pools and two continents will fight for the WBC title — but only one will win. With the event set to begin on March 4, we attempt to project the events of the tournament, starting with which teams come out of group play.

Group Play

First, let’s start with who we predict makes it to the quarterfinals:

Pool A

• Puerto Rico (1)
• Canada (2)

Even though Puerto Rico doesn’t have many of the country’s top superstars, including Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa, this group — which also includes Colombia, Cuba, and Panama — is weak enough that the PR can make it through.

Their offense should have enough, while the pitching staff, led by Seth Lugo and Edwin Diaz, is very strong.

As for Canada, Michael Soroka, Cal Quantrill, and Jameson Taillon headline an MLB-heavy rotation. Canada’s outfield is one of the best in the tournament, headlined by a plus-plus defender in Denzel Clarke, with Owen Caissie and Tyler O’Neill in the corners.

If that bunch, as well as an infield that’ll include Josh Naylor, can produce, the Canadians can make it through to the next round.

Pool B

• United States (1)
• Mexico (2)

Pool B will be an adventure, as Italy and Great Britain are significantly better now compared to 2023. For Italy, a better pitching staff and a mature lineup, headlined by Vinnie Pasquantino, there’s a lot to like there. And for Great Britain, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will dress this time.

However, the United States and Mexico should move on.

The US should have no problems getting through to the quarterfinals. Logan Webb will start the first game, followed by Tarik Skubal in his lone WBC start, followed by Paul Skenes. Three aces to match up against Brazil, Great Britain, and Mexico, respectively.

Mexico will have its hands full with Skenes on March 9. Still, with a strong overall lineup led by Randy Arozarena and an unheralded pitching staff, expect Mexico to handle the group stage well.

However, don’t be surprised if Italy or Great Britain make it close.

Pool C

• Japan (1)
• Korea (2)

Japan had a tough team dealing with NPB powerhouse Orix in an exhibition game before the tournament. But that doesn’t mean anything in the wide view.

Samurai Japan’s 2026 roster is incredibly deep. Their pitching staff includes multiple aces, headlined by Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And the offense, led by Shohei Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki, and Kazuma Okamoto, among others, will give the rest of the pool fits in Tokyo.

Korea, meanwhile, will look to get out of the group stage, something the country could not do in 2023.

The environment is more favorable for Korea to do that in 2026. Czechia remains a significant underdog, while Chinese Taipei‘s pitching staff will have to carry the country. Australia, led by Travis Bazzana, is light on impact arms.

Pool D

• Dominican Republic (1)
• Venezuela (2)

Pool D could be considered the “Group of Death,” to use a soccer/football term.

Israel has an under-the-radar team, led by a plethora of Major Leaguers and prospects. The Netherlands has the bats to make life difficult for teams. Nicaragua is the heavy favorite to finish last in Pool D.

For the Dominican Republic, this is a revenge year. Puerto Rico stonewalled the DR in the final game of the group stage in Miami, locking the country out of a quarterfinal berth. It was a big disappointment for a stacked roster. With an even better team in 2026, expectations will be very high.

Venezuela, led by Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jackson Chourio, is a baseball powerhouse. Their roster is heavy on high-end Major League talent.

Quarterfinals

• USA (B1) def. Canada (A2)
• Dominican Republic (D1) def. Korea (C2)
• Mexico (B2) def. Puerto Rico (A1)
• Japan (C1) def. Venezuela (D2)

Even though this is a different sport, wouldn’t it be fun to see the United States and Canada square off on the diamond just two weeks after the men’s and women’s gold medal hockey games?

Given how the format works in the WBC, that matchup is inherently possible.

This track should, tentatively, set up well for the Dominican Republic and Mexico. The quarterfinals may also feature a finals-worthy matchup between Venezuela and Japan.

Semifinals

• Japan def. Mexico
• Dominican Republic def. United States

If this track were to hold, we would see a rematch of the 2023 WBC semifinals between Japan and Mexico. And if that were to happen, Samurai Japan would have a good advantage, even though Mexico pushed the country to the brink three years ago with a similar roster.

After that, it would be the Dominican Republic and the U.S. For as good as the United States’ roster is in 2026, there are really only two countries that have a grade-A chance to win against the Americans: the Dominican Republic and Japan.

Unfortunately, the U.S. may not be able to avoid either of those countries until the final.

Final

• Dominican Republic def. Japan

We predict the Dominican Republic to win the 2026 World Baseball Classic.