Predicting the winner of the dangerously close AL West division race

With just over a month to go in the regular season, the Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and Houston Astros are all separated by just one game at the top of the AL West. 

The stakes are high to win the division and avoid fighting it out for a wild card spot. The winner of the division is almost guaranteed a bye into the division series as a top-two seed in the American League, and, even though the Mariners and Astros currently hold the final two Wild Card positions, the Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 GB) and Boston Red Sox (3.5 GB) are still very much in contention. 

Let's take a quick look at all three teams:

Texas Rangers (72-55)

The Rangers have led the AL West for a majority of the season and, before their current losing streak, looked like one of the best teams in baseball. They have an elite offense led by shortstop Corey Seager, second baseman Marcus Semien, and outfielder Adolis García. The Rangers also boast one of the deepest starting rotations in the league, especially after acquiring Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline. Additionally, Nathan Eovaldi, who hasn't pitched since July 18, is expected to return soon. He was garnering Cy Young consideration before hitting the IL due to "forearm soreness," and will give the Rangers even more rotation depth. 

Despite their dominant offense and rotation, the bullpen has been letting the Rangers down, especially during their seven-game skid. In that span, the Rangers bullpen has allowed 21 earned runs and has blown four save opportunities. Texas must find a way to hold leads—whether that means removing Will Smith from the closer role, giving more high-pressure situations to veteran reliever Aroldis Chapman, or moving one of their starters into the bullpen, what they're doing right now is not working.

Seattle Mariners (71-56, 1 GB)

As cold as the Rangers have been lately, the Mariners have been red-hot, winning eight games in a row before finally losing on Wednesday. They've been fueled by outfielder Julio Rodriguez's bat, who has looked like the best player in baseball for the past month. In August, Rodriguez is slashing .405/.448/.640 with four home runs, 23 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. He also broke an MLB record with 17 hits over a four-game span, and tied another record with four straight games with at least four hits.

While Rodriguez's run of form at the plate has been the biggest story out of Seattle, their pitching has also been impressive. Starting pitchers Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller all have sub-four ERAs, and, despite trading away former closer Paul Sewald to the Arizona Diamondbacks, the rest of the Mariners bullpen, headlined by Andrés Muñoz, has banded together to fill the void.

Houston Astros (72-57, 1 GB)

The Astros have been the class of the American League since 2017, making it at least as far as the ALCS each season and winning two World Series. This year, however, has been one of Houston's weaker performances. They've dealt with consistent injuries to both their starting lineup and rotation, and their marquee offseason addition, first basemen and former MVP José Abreu, has largely disappointed. Despite that, their familiar core of second baseman Jose Altuve, third baseman Alex Bregman, and recently reacquired starting pitcher Justin Verlander make them as dangerous as ever come October.

Perhaps the most impressive part of this Astros team is the effectiveness of their young rotation. Other than the 40-year-old Verlander, every single game has been started by someone under the age of 30. Rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France have stepped up, along with the more established Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier.

Prediction:

The Rangers will win the division. They have too much talent up and down their roster for their poor run of form to continue, and, if anyone can push the right buttons to figure out how to best manage their bullpen, it's their manager, three-time World Series champion Bruce Bochy.