Previewing The Upcoming Starting Pitching Class

With the regular season in the books, MLBTR is taking a position-by-position look at the 2026-27 free agent market. Next up is the lengthiest entry: the starting pitching market. There’s one clear top name — and top free agent — this winter. Entering the season, the class looked solid, but many of the top names struggled through poor seasons and/or injuries. There’s still a decent collection of mid-rotation and back-end veterans who can be had on one- or two-year deals, though, and the number of impending free agents who had down seasons creates ample opportunity for some short-term upside plays.

Player ages are for the 2027 season, and names within each tier are listed alphabetically, not “ranked.” Only players who appeared in MLB (or on major league 60-day injured lists) this year are included, with the exception of a pair of high-profile NPB stars who could be posted for major league teams. Also note that players with mutual options are treated as pure free agents, given the extreme rarity with which both ends of a mutual option are exercised (which last happened in 2014).

Previous entries in this series: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Center Field, Corner Outfield, Designated Hitter

A Tier Unto Himself

Tarik Skubal, LHP (30)

There’s no surprise here. Skubal isn’t just the top starter on this year’s market — he’s the top free agent overall and one of the most desirable free agents to ever reach the market. The two-time American League Cy Young winner won’t turn 30 until November. He won Cy Young honors in 2024 and 2025, pitching to a combined 2.30 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate across 387 1/3 innings. There was some concern earlier in the season when Skubal required surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow, but he underwent an innovative “NanoNeedle” surgery to remove that bone chip and was back on a big league mound within 43 days.

Some early rust after the injury quickly gave way to the same level of dominance we’ve come to expect from the powerhouse lefty. Skubal’s final 16 regular-season starts were a near-mirror image of his 2024-25 Cy Young form: 2.36 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate — all while averaging nearly 6 1/3 frames per appearance. He kept it rolling in his first playoff start, firing six innings of one-run ball to best the Braves.

Skubal has been the most consistently dominant pitcher on the planet for three years now. A qualifying offer wouldn’t curb interest in him anyhow, but it can only help that his midseason trade to the Dodgers will render him ineligible to receive that QO. He’s likely to top either the AAV record for non-Ohtani pitchers (currently Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer’s previous $43.33MM) or the largest overall guarantee for a non-Ohtani pitcher (Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM) — and possibly both in one fell swoop.

Playoff Caliber Starters in Position for Long-Term Deals

Freddy Peralta (31)

“Long-term” deal is a relative term, but Peralta has gone from looking like he’d need to sign a rebound deal while struggling with the Mets to looking much more like the prior version of himself with the Rays. His strikeout rate hasn’t bounced back, granted, but including last night’s playoff start, Peralta has a 2.24 ERA in his past 56 1/3 innings. If you want to cherry-pick a bit further, he’s allowed only four runs in his past 38 2/3 innings.

Peralta started decently with the Mets before hitting an early summer swoon. The Rays picked him up at the deadline anyhow, and he’s played a big role in positioning Tampa Bay in its current place on the cusp of the ALCS.

Prior to his struggles in Queens, Peralta was one of the game’s steadiest and most consistent starters in Milwaukee. From 2021-25, he pitched 738 1/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA. He averaged 28 starts per year, and his ERA resided between 2.70 and 3.86 in all five of those season. His strikeout rate sat between 27.1% and 33.6%. His walk rate checked into an even narrower window, between 7.9% and 9.4%.

Detractors could look at Peralta and say his struggles with the Mets are a bad omen, whereas an optimist would say that was really about six weeks of struggles in the middle of a run of six otherwise very strong and steady seasons. Peralta can’t receive a qualifying offer by virtue of that trade. He could go the opt-out route and try for a short-term deal that allows him to reenter free agency, but he valued long-term security earlier in his career. A deep postseason run would only further strengthen his case, but Peralta still has a chance at cracking nine figures if he strings together a few more playoff starts of note and rides his Rays momentum into the offseason.

Trevor Rogers (29)

Rogers’ time with the Orioles started poorly enough that he was optioned not long after being acquired in a 2024 trade, but over the past two seasons he’s been everything Baltimore wanted. The former first-rounder and NL Rookie of the Year runner-up finished the current season with a 4.03 ERA, an average strikeout rate and a plus walk rate. Add that into last year’s resurgence, and Rogers touts a 3.16 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 41.1% ground-ball rate in a total of 279 1/3 innings.

While Rogers lacks the consistency we saw from Ranger Suarez in the years leading up to his $130MM deal with the Red Sox, the results are comparable. Plus, Rogers throws a bit harder and is reaching free agency ahead of his age-29 season, whereas Suarez got there a year older.

That’s not to say Rogers will necessarily match Suarez’s $130MM — but it’s worth pointing out that a mid-rotation lefty of this nature can still command a weighty five-year deal. Rogers is a slam-dunk to receive and reject a qualifying offer. He’s a comparable and very arguably better pitcher than Eduardo Rodriguez was when he landed four years and $80MM with Arizona, and he’ll be two years younger than E-Rod was for that deal, too.

Effective Late-Career Veterans

Chris Bassitt (38)

The ultra-durable Bassitt ran into some health troubles this season, making only 18 starts (and two relief appearances) due to a June procedure that removed a bone spur from the lumbar region of his lower back. A slow start dragged down his numbers, but Bassitt turned a corner in late April and notched a sharp 3.74 ERA in eight starts post-surgery. He still finished with a 4.59 ERA and abnormally low 16.1% strikeout rate, but his post-injury strikeout rate was just shy of 19%. He maintained a solid 8.3% walk rate.

Bassitt made 30+ starts with between 170-200 innings, a 22-23% strikeout rate and an ERA between 3.42 and 4.16 every season from 2022-25. His post-surgery form looked closer to that 2022-25 level of performance (albeit still a bit shy). Bassitt said at season’s end that whether he continues pitching will be a family decision — he’s married with a seven-year-old and three-year-old — but voiced confidence that he can continue performing at a high level with the back issue behind him. He’s probably limited to one-year deals from here on out, but that may be preferable for a pitcher in his late 30s with a young family at home. If he wants to keep going, he’d probably have a dozen or more suitors looking for a stable veteran arm on a short-term commitment.

Kevin Gausman (36)

Gausman’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays spanned the 2022-26 seasons and has been one of the best free agent investments in recent memory. He made 31 or 32 starts and totaled at least 174 innings in all five years of the contract. He posted a strong walk rate each season and delivered a sub-4.00 ERA and above-average strikeout rate in four of the five. His ERA spiked to 4.51 this season, but Gausman’s strikeout rate (24.5%), walk rate (6.3%) and ground-ball rate (40.1%) all remained near or better than league average. The primary culprit for Gausman was a jump to a 12.7% homer-to-flyball rate and a corresponding dip in strand rate. Metrics like SIERA (3.67) and xFIP (3.58) don’t feel he was materially different than in the preceding four seasons.

As with Bassitt, Gausman has a young family and spoke openly late in the season about how that will impact his plans moving forward. The right-hander also made clear upon being traded away from the Jays that leaving Toronto was an extremely bittersweet experience; Gausman explained that while he relished the opportunity to return to the postseason, Toronto was where he’d raised his daughters and the city had come to feel like home. He even spoke of wanting to take his girls to Jays games as a fan and show them around the rest of Canada in his post-playing days. A return to the Jays shouldn’t be a surprise, but Gausman will have a healthy market of interested bidders if he continues pitching.

Sonny Gray (37) – $30MM mutual option with a $10MM buyout

Gray dialed back the clock in his age-36 season, logging his best season since his 2023 American League Cy Young runner-up campaign. He tossed 169 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 46% grounder rate. His velocity is below average (91.5 mph average four-seamer, 92 mph average sinker), but Gray has never been a flamethrower and has long relied on precision and a deep arsenal that features a pair of plus breaking balls (slider and curve). He’s now started 145 games, pitched 819 2/3 innings and logged a 3.36 ERA over his past five big league seasons.

Following Boston’s quick exit from the postseason, Gray voiced frustration and disappointment about being lifted in the fifth inning. He’d previously voiced an affinity for Boston, but upon being asked if he’d be back with the Red Sox in the aftermath of that quick hook from manager Chad Tracy, he told the Sox beat simply: “I don’t know.” We shouldn’t read too much into some frustration and disappointment from a veteran whose season just ended, but Gray has also spoken of possible retirement and has long preferred to pitch as close to his home in Nashville as possible, so that he can maximize his time with his family.

If Gray wants to commit to pitching multiple years he’ll have no shortage of hefty two-year offers this winter. If he prefers to go year to year, he can command an even larger salary on a short-term deal while maintaining some flexibility. Two years with an opt-out could give him the best of both worlds. Whatever form the contract takes, Gray is going to be coveted by most contenders and playoff hopefuls. He has a mutual option, but it’s not going to come into play.

Intriguing NPB Arms

Note: Pitch-level data here comes via Yuri Kawasara’s indispensable Yakyu Cosmpolitan.

Hiromi Itoh, LHP (29)

Itoh is putting the finishing touches on a season that’s seen him post a 3.23 ERA in 172 2/3 innings. He’s pitched six seasons for the Nippon-Ham Fighters, starting at least 23 games per year — NPB has a 144-game schedule and frequently uses six-man rotations — with innings totals between 146 (as a rookie) and 196 2/3. His ERA has never climbed higher than 3.46 and has been below 3.00 on four occasions. Itoh fanned a pedestrian 21.8% of his opponents this season but delivered a stout 4.7% walk rate.

The track record is good, but there are red flags. Itoh is listed at just 5’9″ and 180 pounds, making him undersized to an extreme level by MLB standards. He hasn’t missed bats at a plus level and sits 92.1 mph on his four-seamer. Itoh’s 10.7% swinging-strike rate in Japan is roughly in line with the major league average, but he’d be facing better hitters in MLB. That’s largely true of his opponents’ 85.3% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone.

Itoh is a solid starter in Japan, ranking second in NPB in innings pitched and middle-of-the-pack in terms of earned run average. He’s probably going to be viewed more as a durable back-of-the-rotation arm by major league clubs — perhaps even a swingman or reliever. His track record should still get him some real interest, but he’s not going to break the bank — if the Fighters even post him at all. They’re reportedly “expected” to do so, but nothing’s official yet.

Kaima Taira, RHP (27)

On the other end of the velocity spectrum is the 26-year-old Taira (27 in November). He posted a sensational 1.36 earned run average in 2026 — his third straight season with a sub-2.00 ERA and his fourth in the past five years. The notable caveat there, however, is that Taira spent three of those five seasons working out of the bullpen. This year’s 146 innings are the second-most of his career, trailing 2023’s 150 frames.

Taira sits 95.7 mph on his four-seamer — tops among qualified NPB arms — and can climb to 99 or even scrape 100 mph. His 13.6% swinging-strike rate is NPB’s second-best mark, and his 24.8% strikeout rate ranks fourth. Taira has shown the best command of his career this season, walking only 7.9% of his opponents, and has age on his side, still sitting firmly in his mid-20s.

It’s a near-perfect package for an overseas star who’s hoping to be posted for his club — save for one thing. Taira is listed at 5’8″ and 209 pounds. He’d be the shortest starting pitcher in MLB by a mile. Teams tend to be wary of “undersized” players at any position, and while there are of course prominent outlier examples (e.g. Jose Altuve, Caleb Durbin), it’s also true that there’s little to no track record of a pitcher with this height and build succeeding in the majors. That doesn’t mean Taira can’t break the mold, but he’ll be dealing with his share of skeptics in negotiations (Personally, I’m all for an Alejandro Kirk build ripping 98 mph fastballs off the mound, but I’m not the one investing tens of millions of dollars and hoping it pans out.)

“Undersized” pitchers of this nature have had more success in short relief roles, and Taira certainly has the velocity to make that work. It’s fair to expect his velocity to sit in the upper 90s and more regularly reach triple digits in that role, but it’s possible he’ll prioritize an opportunity that gives him the chance to start. There’s nothing official on his posting yet — only that, like Itoh, it’s “expected” — so it’s hard to say what his priorities will be with any real certainty.

Mid-Rotation Arms

Matthew Boyd (36) – $15MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Boyd didn’t reach 100 innings in a season from 2020-24, but he’s started 53 games with a 3.50 ERA over what’s turned out to be a bargain two-year, $29MM deal with the Cubs. He’s not going to challenge for a Cy Young Award in 2027, but Boyd can reasonably be expected to contribute 140-ish innings with a below-average strikeout rate but good command and plenty of weak contact. There aren’t too many multi-year deals for free agent starters aged 36 and up in recent seasons, but he has a chance to add his name to the list this winter and, if not, he ought to command a pretty nice one-year salary. Boyd is a borderline QO candidate, given the Cubs’ deep pockets, their strong preference for short-term pitching deals, and the fact that they’re losing an entire rotation’s worth of arms to free agency.

Foster Griffin (31)

Griffin’s return from a stellar three-year run in Japan started brilliantly but faded late. The former first-round pick pitched to a 3.06 ERA in 22 starts with the Nationals but logged a 5.19 ERA in nine starts with the Guardians following a deadline swap. Granted, most of the damage against Griffin was confined to an eight-run drubbing at the hands of the Orioles, so perhaps some of the concern with that split is unwarranted. Griffin still piled up 172 2/3 innings with a 3.60 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 44.7% grounder rate. Those stats are all average or better.

Modern MLB front offices are velocity-crazed and thus might be put off by Griffin’s four-seamer and sinker, which respectively sat 91.5 mph and 91.4 mph this season, but Griffin has an incredibly deep, seven-pitch repertoire to try to keep hitters off balance. He should get a multi-year deal this time around, particularly since the trade left him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

Shota Imanaga (33)

Imanaga’s terrific “rookie” season in 2024 increasingly looks like it might be a peak, as the left-hander’s penchant for serving up home runs has reached critical levels in recent seasons. On the one hand, he’s still sporting a 3.75 ERA in 319 innings across the 2025-26 seasons. On the other, Imanaga (1.86) narrowly trails countryman Tomoyuki Sugano and big league veteran Zack Littell (tied at 1.91 apiece) for the worst HR/9 mark among the 82 pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched since 2025.

For now, Imanaga is getting by with the barrage of round-trippers because he’s sporting elite command (4.9% walk rate) and generating strikeouts at a solid level (22.9%). But his homer woes spiked late in ’25 and looked to be doing so again in August before he righted the ship in September. Maybe a move to a larger park can help him stave off some of the big flies that tend to be his undoing. There’s little doubting that Imanaga can miss enough bats and limit enough walks to pitch in the middle of a big league rotation — the only question is whether he can keep the ball in the park enough to do so. He accepted a qualifying offer last winter and thus can’t receive one this offseason.

Tyler Mahle (32)

Mahle’s time with the Giants was forgettable, but the Braves made him their latest rags-to-riches deadline pickup when they bought low and aggressively ramped up the usage of his splitter. The veteran righty’s average fastball velocity also ticked up 0.6 mph in Atlanta (from 92.6 to 93.2), and Mahle cruised to a 1.99 ERA down the stretch before firing seven innings of one-run ball against the Phillies in the Wild Card round of postseason play.

Mahle posted a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts with the Rangers in 2025, but that looked to be largely smoke and mirrors; his strikeout rate was poor, his walk rate was average, and he benefited from an 85% strand rate and minuscule 4.9% homer-to-flyball rate. With the Giants, it looked like expected regression had caught up to Mahle. With the Braves, he looks like another pitcher entirely, missing bats at an above-average level with plus command and sensational results on the revamped splitter/four-seamer pairing.

The manner in which Mahle’s season has played out is a good reminder for how quickly a free agent’s outlook can change. He’s gone from looking like another one-year deal candidate — probably at less than this year’s $10MM — to a two- or even three-year deal from a team that buys into the Atlanta tweaks.

Nick Martinez (36) – $20MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

MLB’s consummate swingman is a swingman no longer. Martinez has spent his entire return from Japan oscillating between the rotation and bullpen in San Diego and Cincinnati, willingly providing length and solid, if unspectacular results in either role as he piles up innings in droves. The Rays might have had designs on a similar role in 2026, but early injuries — including season-ending hip surgery for Ryan Pepiot — thrust Martinez into the rotation and he’s never looked back.

MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern took an excellent look at Martinez’s bizarre career arc as he finally reached 30 starts for the first time in his career — at the tail end of his age-35 season. Martinez can’t receive a qualifying offer because the Reds previously made him one. No team will expect him to sustain a 3.10 ERA when he’s sitting on a 15.1% strikeout rate, but Martinez’s blend of premium command (3.6% walk rate) and awful opponents’ contact (87 mph exit velocity, 33% hard-hit rate) should combine with his durability and versatility to get him multi-year offers this winter. He’s not all that dissimilar to Merrill Kelly, who landed two years and $40MM last offseason when he was a year older.

Dustin May (29) – $20MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

May’s youth and velocity continue to tantalize teams. The oft-injured former top prospect posted a combined 191 2/3 innings from 2019-24 but has now topped 100 innings in each of the past two seasons. He’s sporting an ugly 4.82 ERA in that time (4.70 this season) but has regained some of the velocity he lost following a series of injuries. May is averaging 96.9 mph on his four-seamer and has fanned a solid 23.5% of his opponents this year with an 8.1% walk rate. His ERA is up following a trade from St. Louis to Milwaukee, but his rate stats have greatly improved. May allowed only seven homers in 109 innings as a Cardinal before yielding that same number in just 36 2/3 innings as a Brewer.

Pedigree, velocity, youth and improved durability will give May some earning power this winter. He already commanded a $12.5MM deal coming off a near-5.00 ERA in a season he finished on the injured list. He should out-earn that this time around despite the lackluster results, as some team will buy into the idea that May is only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a high-end starter.

Casey Mize (30)

Mize, a former No. 1 overall pick, was well on his way to a career year before a pair of adductor strains shortened his season’s first half. The 29-year-old (30 in May) was still excellent with the Tigers, pitching to a 2.70 ERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate in 16 starts before being traded to San Diego … where the wheels promptly came off. With the Padres, Mize’s fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all went significantly in the wrong direction. He posted a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts.

While it’s not the ending to the season he envisioned, Mize is now ineligible for a qualifying offer after being traded. He’s also sporting a solid 4.08 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate across the past two seasons, even with that brutal finish in the Gaslamp District.

Robbie Ray (35)

Like Mize, Ray was traded to the Padres at the deadline. And, like Mize, his results went the wrong direction. The former AL Cy Young winner had posted a fluky looking 3.08 ERA with the Giants, skating by despite worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates (plus a decent, albeit not egregious number of home runs). His velocity slipped nominally in San Diego, but his already problematic 11% walk rate spiked to 14.2% as his strikeout rate fell to just 17.4%. Ray’s homer troubles worsened with the Friars, too.

It’s the second straight season that Ray has enjoyed a nice first half but wilted as the summer has worn on. Perhaps that’s not too surprising for a pitcher in his mid-30s who missed the bulk of the 2023-24 campaigns recovering from Tommy John surgery, but it’s not an encouraging trend.

Ray is still a big name with a big pedigree who can’t receive a qualifying offer. He’s not going to fetch more than two years and may only command a pricey one-year deal, but he shouldn’t be hurting for interested suitors.

Michael Soroka (29) – $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

A glute strain and forearm inflammation limited Soroka to 116 2/3 innings with the D-backs this year, but that’s actually the second-highest career total for the talented-but-oft-injured righty. Soroka was terrific when healthy — as is often the case. He looked like a star early in his big league career with the Braves before a series of brutal injuries — including consecutive seasons lost to separate Achilles tears — derailed his trajectory.

With the Snakes, Soroka notched a sharp 3.41 ERA with a hearty 24.1% strikeout rate and just a 6.1% walk rate. He had some strong outings with the Nats in 2025 and went on a monster run as a reliever in 2024 after getting bounced from the White Sox’ rotation. Those stretches, paired with a nice 2026 season, should get Soroka a multi-year deal despite his lack of durability. Soroka, who won’t turn 30 until next August, is a long-shot QO candidate. The D-backs would surely love to have him back, but an estimated $23.1MM offer to someone with his lack of innings is a risk for a team that’s looking to scale back payroll.

Back-End Starters and Innings Eaters

Walker Buehler (32)

Buehler’s days as a fledgling ace are a distant memory, but his 2026 season with the Padres showed he can still be a serviceable source of back-end innings. He’s stayed healthy the past two seasons now and delivered a mid-4.00s ERA with middling strikeout and walk rates but plenty of grounders. The current package doesn’t align with the name value, but a team could do much worse than Buehler as its fourth or fifth starter.

Erick Fedde (34)

Fedde hasn’t been able to sustain the strong results he posted in 2023’s return from the KBO. He did post a 3.83 ERA in 141 innings this season, but his strikeout rate was poor, his walk rate about average and his home run rate through the roof. A team with a big home park and a need for cheap back-end innings should give him a modest one-year deal.

Kyle Freeland (34)

Freeland posted a 4.43 ERA in 366 innings for his hometown Rockies from 2020-22, but their decision to extend him didn’t pay off. From 2023-26, he’s pitched 567 innings with a 5.44 ERA. Freeland doesn’t throw hard, miss bats or induce grounders at a strong rate. He has good command, but he’s far too hittable — hence the whopping 1.62 homers per nine frames he’s averaged dating back to 2023. He might just re-sign with the Rockies at a lesser rate, but perhaps the career-long Rockie is ready to see what a change of scenery might entail.

Miles Mikolas (38)

Mikolas was rocked for an 8.23 ERA through his first 27 1/3 innings with the Nats. He settled in as a decent innings eater in May and June before stumbling again in July and being released in August. Mikolas reached ten years of big league service just before his DFA. If he’s going to keep pitching, it’ll very likely have to be on a minor league deal.

Martín Pérez (36)

Every time Pérez’s career looks to be on its last legs, he seems to bounce back with a surprising comeback effort. That was the case again in 2026, when he took a minor league contract after an injury-shortened 2025 season with the White Sox. Pérez was signed as depth but thrust into the rotation early after injuries ravaged Atlanta’s staff. He didn’t just step in and eat up some boring innings, but rather fired 142 frames with a scintillating 3.04 ERA. Pérez’s 17% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate were markedly worse than average, but he induced grounders at a strong 45.7% clip and notched his best average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in a half decade. His nearly 80% strand rate and .253 BABIP are both primed for some regression, but Pérez once again looks like a credible fourth starter and should get a major league contract after missing out on one last offseason.

David Peterson (31)

Peterson gave the Mets four seasons of mostly good work from 2022-25 before completely collapsing in 2026. The Mets shipped him to the Cubs after Peterson flopped with a 6.08 ERA through his first 16 appearances (eight starts). He was absolutely shelled for 10 runs in his second outing as a Cub … and then promptly snapped back to his typical form. Over his final 71 innings, he logged a 2.66 ERA. That mark was propped up by an 84% strand rate, but Peterson had an average strikeout rate and excellent 53.3% grounder rate in that hot streak down the stretch. Even with his ugly start to 2026, he now has a 4.18 ERA in 654 2/3 innings dating back to 2022.

Brady Singer (30)

The Reds got the better end of the swap that sent Jonathan India to Kansas City in exchange for Singer, but only because of the latter’s strong 2025 season. The 2026 campaign was a bust for Singer, who started poorly, had a nice hot streak in June and July, and then quickly crumbled thereafter. The end result is a 5.85 ERA in 157 innings, spurred by career-worst average sinker velocity (91.1 mph), a career-low 17.4% strikeout rate and a career-high 1.83 HR/9. The Reds bizarrely hung onto Singer at the trade deadline when he’d rattled off 10 starts with a 3.34 ERA and (at the time) improved rate stats. The plan, reportedly, was to make him a qualifying offer. I don’t know how they could justify that at this point, but Singer’s camp is surely hoping they stick to the plan.

Tomoyuki Sugano (37)

A star with the Yomiuri Giants for much of his career in Japan, Sugano drew MLB interest in his prime but opted to stay in Tokyo on a pricey four-year deal that paid him more than $40MM. He finally opted to sign in North America ahead of the 2025 season with the Orioles, then signed with the Rockies for the ’26 campaign. We’re two years into Sugano’s MLB run now, and he’s proven to be a homer-prone innings eater who fits best on a rebuilding club needing innings and/or a team in a spacious home park. He has a flat 5.00 ERA in 311 MLB frames, including a 5.37 mark with the Rox this past season, when he averaged 1.92 homers per nine innings pitched.

Veteran Swingmen

Paul Blackburn (33)

Blackburn, a former starter, topped out at three innings (just once) as a multi-inning reliever for the Yankees this season. The move to shorter stints brought about a velocity spike, and he produced a career-best 1.69 ERA in 85 innings. The pinpoint command he showed earlier in his career has given way to a higher-than-average walk rate, but he’s missing bats at a near-average level with a borderline-elite ground-ball rate (54.7%). He should sign a big league deal this winter.

Aaron Civale (32)

Civale has gone from a dependable fourth starter to a fifth starter/long relief swingman who’s split his time between the rotation and bullpen for four different teams in the past two seasons.

Zack Littell (31)

Released by both the Nationals and D-backs in 2026, Littell was an innings-eating third/fourth starter with the Rays in 2023-25 and will look for a rebound opportunity in 2027.

Jordan Montgomery (34)

Montgomery missed 2025 recovering from 2024 Tommy John surgery — the second of his career. He returned with 26 innings, a 4.15 ERA, and a fastball that averaged only 90.4 mph — down three miles per hour from the 2023 season in which his heroics helped fuel the Rangers’ World Series win. It’s reasonable to expect that some velo might return, but Montgomery turns 34 in December and is a ways removed from the 30-start workhorse he was from 2021-23.

Cal Quantrill (32)

Expectations were low for the former No. 8 overall pick after he posted a combined 5.39 ERA for four teams from 2023-25, but Quantrill made good on a $1.2MM minor league deal and gave the Rangers 110 frames of 2.86 ERA ball between the rotation and bullpen. There’s plenty of smoke and mirrors at play — he fanned only 18.3% of opponents and enjoyed a .239 BABIP and 77.6% strand rate — but Quantrill tweaked his repertoire to include a few more splitters and a lot more four-seamers (at the expense of his sinker, changeup, slider and curveball). He might’ve earned another rotation look somewhere, and he should command a big league deal this time around.

Rebound Hopefuls

Shane Bieber (32)

Bieber’s shocking decision to exercise a $16MM player option — a net $12MM move, given the option’s $4MM buyout — at the end of the 2025 makes more sense now that we’ve seen how his ’26 season played out. The right-hander returned from Tommy John surgery and worked 79 innings between rehab, the regular season and the playoffs in ’25. The results were good, but Bieber wasn’t ready for the start of 2026. He didn’t take the mound until late June, and his results for most of the season were grisly. At a couple points, he looked to be rounding into form, but he mixed in multiple clunkers and ended his season with a late-August trip to the IL due to shoulder (teres major) injury. We all know how good a healthy Bieber can be, but he’s made just 20 regular season starts since 2024 and 41 dating back to 2023.

Kris Bubic (29)

Bubic has high-end results and low-end durability. The former first-rounder and top prospect broke out with a 2.58 ERA in 146 2/3 frames from 2024-25, but he missed the final two months of 2025 due to a strained rotator cuff and was out for several months this year due to both elbow and shoulder pain. Someone’s going to give Bubic a big league deal, but there will probably be plenty of incentives and a short (possibly one-year) term.

Griffin Canning (31) – $5MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

Canning was good with the Mets in 2025 before tearing his Achilles and poor with the Padres in 88 2/3 innings during his comeback from the resulting surgery. He did have a solid finish in long relief, posting a 2.70 ERA and decent rate stats in his final 26 2/3 innings. Canning is a former second-round pick and top prospect who’s previously shown some flashes of mid-rotation potential. The Padres aren’t locking him in for $5MM, though. His encouraging finish might land him another cheap big league deal, but there’s a real chance he has to take a minor league pact this time around.

Zach Eflin (33) – $25MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Eflin posted an ERA near 6.00 in 14 starts in 2025 while dealing with back troubles. He re-signed a one-year deal with Baltimore and required Tommy John surgery after just one start. From 2023-24, he logged 353 innings with a 3.54 ERA, but he’s a pure rebound candidate right now and won’t be game-ready until next summer.

Jack Flaherty (31)

Forearm troubles limited Flaherty to only 88 1/3 innings this season. When healthy, he continued to show strong strikeout numbers (26%) but did so with sub-par command (10.6% walk rate) and, for a second straight season, too much hard contact. When he’s healthy, Flaherty misses bats at a plus clip and typically has good command, 2026 notwithstanding. He’s struggled with injuries and home runs at times, but he won’t be 31 until November. As far as this “rebound” group goes, he’s among the more interesting names for teams to consider. As recently as 2024, he gave the Tigers and Dodgers a combined 162 innings of 3.14 ERA ball with excellent rate stats.

Zac Gallen (31)

One of the game’s most consistent pitchers from 2022-24, Gallen has quickly fallen from perennially being on the Cy Young periphery to one of the least-effective starters in baseball. He posted a nice ERA down the stretch in 2025 but did so with similar rate stats to when he was struggling. The improved results emboldened him to reject a qualifying offer, but he returned to Arizona on a deferred one-year deal roughly matching that QO’s base value late in the offseason. Gallen’s hopes for a rebound didn’t pan out, and he’s now posted a 5.27 ERA over his past 297 1/3 frames. His strikeout rate cratered to 13.6% this year — one of the worst marks in baseball — and he’s averaged 1.51 homers per nine innings over the past two seasons.

Lucas Giolito (32) – $8MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout

Giolito ended the 2025 season on the injured list due to elbow troubles and didn’t find a deal to his liking over the winter. He signed a one-year, $3MM deal (plus $5MM of incentives) with the Padres after the season began but pitched only 29 2/3 innings with career-worst velocity and a 5.16 ERA before further elbow issues ended his season.

Jose Quintana (38)

An elbow sprain limited Quintana to only 11 starts and 48 innings with the Rockies. He returned from a monthslong stay on the 60-day IL to pitch seven innings across two starts in late September. Quintana’s age, 5.44 ERA and career-worst 11.8% strikeout rate are working against him, but he rattled off four straight seasons of a sub-4.00 ERA from 2022-25, including 131 2/3 innings of 3.96 ERA ball for the ’25 Brewers.

Patrick Sandoval (29)

The two-year, $18.25MM deal the Red Sox gave to Sandoval didn’t pan out. Boston knew he’d miss much of 2025 recovering from his 2024 UCL surgery, but Sandoval didn’t make it onto the field at all in ’25 and was on the shelf until July 9 of the 2026 season. Upon returning, he pitched to a 5.12 ERA while averaging just shy of five innings per start. He’s two years removed from surgery now but hasn’t pitched a full season.

Max Scherzer (42)

The future Hall of Famer has now posted ERAs north of 5.00 in a pair of partial seasons at ages 40 and 41, due largely to a thumb/nerve injury that has wreaked havoc up and down his arm and caused numbness in his pitching hand. You could argue that Scherzer looks at the end of his rope … but he logged a 3.86 ERA and quality strikeout rate over his final seven starts (39 2/3 innings) and a 4.20 ERA, 20.2 K% and 8.5% in 60 innings dating back to the trade deadline. He finished the year with seven innings of one-run ball. Scherzer has played it coy with whether he’ll continue on for another season, but that late surge showed he still has the stuff to hang with big league lineups when he’s healthy.

Jameson Taillon (35)

Taillon’s first three seasons with the Cubs yielded mid-rotation results, but he was rocked for a 5.92 ERA in 15 starts and missed time due to hamstring strain before being designated for assignment by a pitching-starved Chicago team. The Jays scooped him up, but elbow and forearm injuries limited him to 10 innings there. He recently underwent flexor surgery and could miss the entire 2027 campaign. He wants to keep pitching after his recovery but he can’t provide any near-term help.

Brandon Woodruff (33)

Woodruff has ace-level talent but has been dogged by shoulder injuries for years. He pitched only 45 1/3 innings in 2026 — his third straight season with 67 or fewer frames — with a career-worst 91.8 mph average four-seamer. Even with diminished stuff, however, Woodruff logged a 2.98 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. Woodruff has a career 3.10 ERA in 790 1/3 innings, and a 2.82 mark dating back to 2020. This is one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy … but that’s unfortunately an absolutely colossal caveat; he’s only reached 100 innings in a season three times.

Minor League Depth Options

• Carlos Carrasco (40), Patrick Corbin (37), Bailey Falter (30), Michael Lorenzen (35), German Marquez (32), Lance McCullers Jr. (33), Frankie Montas (34), Chris Paddack (31), Taijuan Walker (34), Trevor Williams (35)

Club/Player Option Decisions

Sandy Alcantara (31) – $21MM club option with a $2MM buyout

There are no trade rumblings this time around. The Marlins have no plans to move Alcantara this winter. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll be Miami’s Opening Day starter in 2027, leading a talented rotation trio that also includes Eury Pérez and Max Meyer. If anything, Alcantara — who once again led the majors in innings pitched — is an extension candidate this winter. His presence here is largely a formality.

José Berríos (33) – can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM

As with Alcantara, there’s no mystery here. Berríos can opt out of the two years and $48MM left on his deal but isn’t going to consider doing so when he’s out until late next summer due to this year’s Tommy John surgery. He went under the knife in late May, so he should have time to return late in the ’27 season.

Corbin Burnes (32) – can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM

A healthy Burnes would’ve been a decent bet to opt out here, even with four years and a $35MM AAV left on his contract. But Burnes required Tommy John surgery after just 11 starts with the D-backs. He made it back to the mound late this year but only tossed 10 1/3 innings, allowing eight runs in the process, before being shut down with some shoulder troubles. Imaging didn’t reveal a major injury, and Burnes attributed the shoulder discomfort to fatigue from the 14-month rehab process. He won’t require shoulder surgery and is expected to be ready for 2027, but it’d be a shock to see him walk away from this type of commitment, even though $44MM of the remaining salary is deferred.

Tony Gonsolin (33) – $2.5MM club option

Gonsolin wrapped up his rehab from his second UCL surgery in three years this summer and signed a big league deal with the Royals, paying him a prorated $1MM in 2026 with a cheap club option for 2027. He allowed five runs through 2 2/3 innings in his lone Royals appearance but held opponents to eight runs on 14 hits and four walks with 11 strikeouts in 16 1/3 Triple-A frames (4.41 ERA). The Royals are in desperate need of pitching, and Gonsolin was high-quality starter for the Dodgers prior to his injury troubles. This seems likely to be picked up.

Kyle Hart (34) – $2.5MM club option with $200K buyout

Hart has earned $1MM and $1.2MM in each of the past two seasons with San Diego while compiling a 5.30 ERA in a swing role. The Friars have shuttled him between Triple-A and the majors, but he burned his final minor league option year in 2026. San Diego may want him back, but probably on a minor league deal as opposed to a guaranteed $2.5MM. The buyout seems likely.

Clay Holmes (34) – can opt out of remaining one year, $12MM

It’s be shocking if Holmes picked up his end of this contract. Granted, a fractured fibula suffered on a comeback liner sent him to the shelf for about half the 2026 season, and he wasn’t as sharp upon returning as he was prior to the injury. Holmes still finished with a 3.29 ERA overall though, bringing him to 267 innings of 3.44 ERA ball in the first two seasons of his three-year, $38MM deal. The return to a starting role has worked out, and Holmes ought to have multi-year offers promising him a higher salary than the $12MM he’d make by exercising his option. He’s a particularly good fit for a team with a plus infield defense, as Holmes is one of the game’s top ground-ball arms (60.7% in 2026; 62.3% career).

Tatsuya Imai (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM

Imai’s first year as a major league starter went about as poorly as possible. He pitched 58 2/3 innings out of the Houston rotation but was torched for a 5.83 ERA while walking more than 15% of his opponents. Imai missed bats at a nice clip (27.2% strikeout rate), however, and he showed some promise in a relief role down the stretch: 18 innings, 2.00 ERA, 34.2% strikeout rate. His 15.1% walk rate from the ‘pen matched his walk rate as a starter, but Imai did a much better job missing bats and limiting hard contact when working out of the ‘pen (83.8 mph average exit velocity, 37.8% hard-hit rate). He’s not going to walk away from the remaining $36MM here, especially when he can opt out again next season, but considering many major league scouts thought he was better suited for a bullpen role anyhow, that late run in relief at least creates some room for cautious optimism.

Michael King (32) – can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout

The buyout here means King is deciding between another trip to the open market and a net $53MM. He made $75MM last winter when he had a QO hanging over him and was coming off an injury-shortened, 15-start 2025 season. This time around, he’s fresh off a career-high 185 innings with a 3.21 ERA. King’s strikeout and walk rates were both slightly worse than average, but he’s steadily posted some of the best quality-of-contact metrics in the game over the past few seasons. Opponents averaged only 87 mph off the bat this year with an awful 32.6% hard-hit rate. King generates plenty of grounders and is adept at working up-and-in to induce plenty of harmless infield flies.

Were it not for this option, King would feature prominently above in the “playoff-caliber starters positioned for long-term deals” group. The fact that he’s entering his age-32 season almost certainly caps him at four years, and he may well end up “settling” for another pricey three-year contract. If King secured $75MM with a QO and a 15-start platform last winter, he’ll have no trouble topping the net $53MM he’d decline by reentering free agency. He’s one of the best starters on this year’s market and will be compensated accordingly.

Nick Pivetta (34) – $14MM club option

King’s likely exit will only further thin out a Padres rotation that was spread thin throughout the season. Pivetta missed much of the year due to injury, but he was healthy down the stretch and has been dominant since signing with the Friars. Barring a nightmare scenario where he incurs an injury in the playoffs, this is a slam-dunk to be picked up.

Drew Rasmussen (31) – $20MM club option with a $500K buyout

Rasmussen is going to be — or should be — a top-five finisher in Cy Young balloting this year after making 30 starts (172 innings) with a 2.67 ERA, 26% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate. His $20MM price tag might be too steep for the frugal Rays, but they can exercise that option with full confidence that there’d be a dozen or more trade partners who’d happily surrender some notable prospects or a young big leaguer to add a year of Rasmussen at a relative discount rate. This will be picked up.

Colin Rea (36) – $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout

A 2021-22 run with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball has given Rea’s big league career a nice second act. Since signing with the Brewers ahead of the 2023 season, he’s pitched 588 2/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA while splitting time between the rotations and long relief roles in Milwaukee and, more recently, with the Cubs. The Cubs’ rotation outlook is dire, and locking in Rea at a net $6.5MM price to again fill a valuable swing role makes good sense. The Cubs bought out a similarly priced option last winter but quickly reworked a new deal that gave Rea a slight raise for 2026 in exchange for this 2027 club option. They could try a similar tactic this winter or just pick it up to keep him. Even if it’s bought out, Rea should find another deal in this general price range.

Jeffrey Springs (34) – $15MM club option with a $750K buyout

Springs was a quality innings eater for the 2025 A’s (171 frames, 4.11 ERA) but was blown up for a 6.18 ERA in 142 2/3 innings in 2026. Home runs — most of them surrendered while pitching at the Athletics’ hitter-friendly makeshift home(s) — were the veteran lefty’s primary downfall. Springs danced around myriad injuries but pitched like a clear mid-rotation arm with the Rays and A’s from ’21-’25. Given how hard it is to convince free agents to sign on to pitch in that home setting, it wouldn’t be a total shock for the A’s to overlook 2026’s poor results and pick up the option. If nothing else, Springs has given them reason to believe he can soak up 150-ish innings, and if he can bounce back to his 2021-25 form he’d be a clear bargain.

Luis Severino (33) – $22MM player option

Shoulder problems limited Severino to just 62 2/3 innings this year. He’s logged a 4.43 ERA in 225 1/3 innings since signing with the A’s in free agency two offseasons ago. Severino isn’t going to find a $22MM-per-year deal in a return to free agency, but it’s at least feasible that he could land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lesser AAV. He has been vocal about his dissatisfaction with the conditions at West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, which has played like an absolute launching pad and (as he knew before signing there) lacks the polish and amenities of a major league facility.

Severino has a 3.14 ERA and 0.61 HR/9 on the road dating back to Opening Day 2025 but a terrible 5.85 ERA and 1.42 HR/9 when pitching at home. His shoulder rehab is largely complete, and he’s expected to have a normal offseason. Would he consider opting out to secure a change of scenery? It’s not the best financial choice for 2027, but it’s possible he could set himself up for better long-term earnings if he goes that route.

Ryan Weiss (30) – $5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Weiss was outstanding in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024-25 but struggled to a 7.62 ERA through the first 26 innings of his big league career this season after the Astros signed him to a major league deal last winter. Houston outrighted Weiss off the 40-man roster earlier this summer, and his struggles persisted in Triple-A (5.42 ERA). They’ll pay the buyout and move on.