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Projection Model Has Boston Red Sox Finishing Last in AL East

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By TJ French | Last updated Feb 4, 2025 4:31 PM ET

The Boston Red Sox have made several notable moves to improve their pitching staff during the offseason, but without any big splashes on the offensive side, the team is projected to be far below where they'd like.

On Monday, Baseball Prospectus released their predicted standings for the 2025 season. They projected the Red Sox would finish last in the AL East with a projected win total of 78.7.

BP uses a projection model that utilizes player data, local trends, and advanced mathematics.

The team's outlook for the 2025 season is well below standards and follows the recent trend of the team's lack of success.

Boston has finished last in the AL East in three of the last five seasons and hasn't made the playoffs since the 2021 campaign.

The projection could be due to the team not acquiring a big-time bat in free agency and the departure of Tyler O'Neill, who led the ball club in home runs in 2024.

Defense was also a significant issue for the Red Sox last season, as their 115 errors ranked second-worst in Major League Baseball, just behind the Miami Marlins.

Boston has been willing to add this offseason, but just on the pitching side. The defense and getting a potent bat for the middle of the order is still a massive need.

Even the Red Sox ownership has been adamant about adding much-needed pieces to the roster this year. Currently, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso are the most prominent names out there if they are willing to make a splash.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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