Ranking MLB’s 2025 Opening Day Pitching Matchups

Unfortunately, one of the 15 games on this year’s Opening Day slate has to be last, and due to unfortunate circumstances, it has to be this one. This matchup was originally the long-awaited return to the mound for Rays ace Shane McClanahan. However, he was removed from his last spring training start with triceps nerve inflammation.

Kyle Freeland will make his fourth career Opening Day start with the Rockies. His most recent Opening Day outing came last season, when he allowed 10 earned runs in 2.1 innings against the Diamondbacks.

Freeland’s game score of -2 last year was the second lowest for any pitcher to make an Opening Day start since 1901. He surpassed only Vern Kennedy, who allowed 11 earned runs in the season opener for the 1937 Chicago White Sox.

Due to the unforeseen circumstances, Pepiot will start the Rays’ first home game at George M. Steinbrenner Field. In 130 innings last year, Pepiot posted a 3.60 ERA and 3.95 FIP. Among all pitchers to throw at least 130 innings last year, he ranked tied for 42nd in ERA and 52nd in FIP.

Pepiot is a good pitcher but doesn’t quite move the needle when comparing him to the others starting on Opening Day.

#14 – Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs Sean Burke (CHW)

Sure, there are reasons to be intrigued about this matchup. Kikuchi will be making his Angels debut after signing a three-year, $63 million contract last offseason. On the other hand, Burke will take the mound after one of the most unlikely rises to Opening Day starter in recent history.

Kikuchi will make his first Opening Day start this year in Chicago. Over the last three seasons, he ranks eighth among the 106 qualifying starters in K/9 (10.36). However, he also owns the highest HR/FB on the same list, tied with one other (16.3%).

White Sox hitters will likely get a heavy dose of Kikuchi’s four-seam fastball on Thursday, the pitch he has thrown 47.1% of the time since 2022. During that span, opponents have hit .268 and slugged .471 against Kikuchi’s four-seamer with a 27.2% whiff rate.

Burke’s Opening Day start will be just his fifth career game in the majors. He will become the first pitcher with fewer than five career appearances to start a game on Opening Day since 1945, and only the eighth pitcher to do so in the live ball era (since 1920).

In his 19 innings pitched for the White Sox last season, he posted a 1.42 ERA and 3.32 FIP with a 10.4 K/9. He became the only pitcher in White Sox history to record an ERA below 1.50 with 20+ strikeouts in their first four career games.

#13 – Zach Eflin (BAL) vs José Berríos (TOR)

For this matchup, we head north of the border to find a rematch of an Opening Day matchup from last year. In 2024, José Berríos and the Blue Jays began their season by traveling to St. Pete to face Zach Eflin and the Rays. Eflin, now a member of the Orioles, will once again square off with Berríos in the season opener, this time on Berríos’ home turf.

Fans in Toronto can expect a lot of strikes from Eflin in his start. Since 2023, 52.4% of all pitches thrown by Eflin have been in the strike zone, the sixth highest rate among the 39 pitchers with at least 5,000 total pitches thrown over the last two years.

Blue Jays fans may also be excited to see Eflin on the mound, given his track record at the Rogers Centre. Throughout his career, Eflin has pitched to an 8.79 ERA in 14.1 innings at the Blue Jays’ home field, the fourth highest among all active pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched in that ballpark.

Berríos will be starting his fifth career Opening Day game and third for the Blue Jays. He is set to join Roy Halladay, Dave Stieb and Jimmy Key as the only Blue Jays to make at least three starts on Opening Day.

Berríos has pitched against the Orioles 16 times throughout his career. In those 16 games, he has posted a 2.95 ERA in 103.2 innings. It is the lowest ERA Berríos has posted against any opponent with at least 25 innings pitched.

#12 – Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs Carlos Rodón (NYY)

The Brewers will head to the Bronx to play their seventh, eighth and ninth consecutive games against New York teams dating back to the 2024 regular season. With Gerrit Cole headed to the IL after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Carlos Rodón will get the nod for the Yankees, while Freddy Peralta will take the mound for Milwaukee.

Peralta will make his second straight Opening Day start in New York. He pitched six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts against the Mets at Citi Field in 2024.

Since 2021, Peralta has been one of the premiere strikeout artists in MLB. Over the last four seasons, he ranks ninth among the 156 qualifying pitchers in K/9 (11.7). He also ranks tied for sixth in whiff rate among the 155 pitchers with at least 5,000 total pitches thrown since 2021.

Rodón is still looking to get on the right foot with the Yankee faithful as he goes into the third season of his six-year deal worth $162 million. He has pitched to a 4.74 ERA and 4.77 FIP in 239.1 innings pitched throughout his Yankees tenure.

Although Rodón has struggled overall, his high volume of strikeouts has remained. His 9.74 K/9 since 2023 ranks 25th highest among the 112 pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched since 2023.

#11 – Luis Severino (ATH) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)

The A’s embark on a new era for the franchise as they play their first season away from Oakland since 1967. After signing Luis Severino to a franchise-record three-year, $67 million deal this offseason, they will give the former Cy Young candidate the ball on Opening Day. The Mariners, a team with an embarrassment of riches in their rotation, will turn to Logan Gilbert to begin their 2025 campaign.

Severino is coming off a season where his 182 innings pitched were by far the most he’s recorded in a season since 2018. In doing so, he logged a 3.91 ERA and 4.21 FIP.

Last season, Severino brought two new pitches to the core of his arsenal: a sinker and a sweeper. The sinker, a pitch Severino had only thrown 80 times before last year, was used 711 times in 2024 with a Run Value of +6. The sweeper went from 1% usage to 17.2% usage between 2023 and 2024. Opponents hit .139 against it last year with an 81.6 mph average exit velocity.

Gilbert, the major league innings leader from last year, will get his first career Opening Day start. He has risen to ace status with 190+ innings pitched and a K/BB above 5.20 in each of the last two seasons.

His 21.4% K-BB% since 2023 ranks third highest among the 46 qualifiers in that span. This has been no different against the A’s, a team Gilbert has a 3.09 ERA against in 70 innings pitched throughout his career.

#10 – Justin Steele (CHC) vs Zac Gallen (ARI)

For the second year in a row, Justin Steele will be making an Opening Day start for the Chicago Cubs. He will do so against Zac Gallen, who is making his third Opening Day start for Arizona. It will be the start of a season for two teams looking to get back to the postseason.

Steele is defined most by having one of the most unique four-seam fastballs in baseball, one that relies less on “rise” and more on drop. Steele’s four-seamer has averaged 20.6 inches of drop since 2023, the most among the 49 pitches with at least 1,750 four-seamers thrown in that time.

Over that span, Steele’s four-seamer has produced a 46% ground ball rate, the fifth highest among the 97 pitchers with at least 200 batted balls against four-seamers.

Gallen will get the start over his new teammate, Corbin Burnes. In doing so, he will get to face a Cubs team he has been successful against throughout his career.

Gallen has a 2.60 ERA in 34.2 career innings against the Cubs across six starts. Over the last three seasons, Gallen has pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 542 innings. His 12.2 fWAR over that span ranked seventh among all qualifying pitchers.

#9 – Clay Holmes (NYM) vs Framber Valdez (HOU)

Less than six months ago, Clay Holmes was coming out of the bullpen to pitch high-leverage innings in the World Series for the New York Yankees. One offseason later, he’s not only making the transition back to starter, but he’s getting the ball on Opening Day for the team across town.

Holmes will matchup against Framber Valdez and the Astros. Since 2018, Holmes (66.7%) and Valdez (63.1%) have the first and fourth highest ground ball rates among the 332 pitchers with at least 750 batted balls.

Spring training stats don’t matter, but Holmes has put up a 0.93 ERA, 2.60 FIP and 10.71 K/9 in 19.1 innings pitched in his five starts this March. A lot of the Mets’ upcoming season hinges on Holmes’ ability to succeed in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation.

Although not everything in spring training is tracked by Statcast, Holmes has thrown 307 tracked pitches this spring, and has a 33.1% whiff rate, the 19th highest among the pitchers with at least 300 tracked pitches.

According to FanGraphs, Valdez led all qualifying starters in ground ball rate at 60.6% in 2024. According to Statcast, his ground ball rate has remained above 55% in every season he’s pitched in the major leagues.

The left-hander will be making his fourth Opening Day start as a member of the Astros. He will become just the sixth Astros starter to make at least four Opening Day starts, surpassing pitchers like Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel and Nolan Ryan.

#8 – Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Cole Ragans (KC)

This AL Central showdown between two reigning playoff teams will feature two young pitchers with only a few years of major league experience. It is set to become the ninth Opening Day matchup since 1970 to feature two starting pitchers with 70 or fewer career games pitched.

Tanner Bibee will get his first Opening Day nod as Shane Bieber continues to recover from Tommy John surgery. Since his major league debut in late April of 2023, he’s posted a 3.25 ERA with 9.4 K/9 in 315.2 innings.

Bibee joins Herb Score in 1955-1956 as the only pitchers in Cleveland baseball history to post an ERA below 3.30 with at least 325 strikeouts in the first 56 games of their major league careers. Bibee’s 3.69 K/9 since 2023 also ranks 18th among qualified starters.

Since Cole Ragans first appeared with the Royals in July of 2023, he has been nothing short of dazzling for Kansas City. From July 15, 2023 through the end of the 2024 season, Ragans ranks third among all pitchers in fWAR (7.3) and second in FIP (2.85).

Since 1901, he is one of just 23 pitchers to post an ERA at or below 3.00 with at least 300 strikeouts in their first 44 games with any team, and the only Royals player to do so.

#7 – Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs MacKenzie Gore (WSH)

Thursday will mark the 18th time Zack Wheeler has faced the Nationals since becoming a Phillie. It is the second most starts any pitcher has made against any particular opponent since 2020. Wheeler is 9-5 with a 3.87 against his most common foe in that time.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore will face the Philadelphia lineup for the eighth time since he first suited up for the Nats in 2023. After Opening Day, it will tie him for the most starts made against a certain team by any pitcher since 2023.

With 11.4 fWAR over the last two seasons, Wheeler leads all pitchers in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement since 2023. He also leads all pitchers in fWAR since 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018.

Since 2020, he has posted three qualifying seasons with a 150 ERA+ or higher. He is the only pitcher in the majors to do so in three of the last five seasons. Although the Cy Young Award has somehow evaded him in this time, he has remained a consistent top pitcher in baseball for half a decade.

Phillies hitters should get ready to sit fastball against Gore on Thursday. After all, his 57.8% four-seam rate is the fourth highest among the 102 pitchers with at least 5,000 total pitches thrown since his debut season in 2022.

In 2024, the Phillies produced a net 0 Run Value against four-seamers, down considerably from their +80 Run Value against all other pitchers last year. Gore had a 3.42 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia last season.

#6 – Logan Webb (SFG) vs Hunter Greene (CIN)

The city of Cincinnati celebrates Opening Day like no other. With an annual home game and parade at GABP, there are lots of reasons to be in Southwest Ohio for the season opener. This year, a matchup featuring two of the league’s most exciting pitchers is another incentive to check out the Reds’ home opener.

Webb is entering his fifth full season as a big leaguer and getting his fourth career Opening Day start. He is set to become the fifth Giants pitcher to start in four consecutive season openers.

In that time, he has been more successful against the Reds than any other team in the National League. In the six games Webb has tossed against Cincinnati in his career, he has accumulated a 1.64 ERA in 33 innings pitched. It’s the lowest ERA Webb owns against any team in the NL.

#5 – Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)

If Jacob deGrom had started this game for the Rangers, this matchup would have probably found its way towards the very top of the list. While Nathan Eovaldi is also a strong option, he doesn’t quite draw eyes to the screen the same way his teammate would. Still, we get Garrett Crochet making his Red Sox debut against Nathan Eovaldi, who is facing his former team.

Crochet came out of nowhere to start on Opening Day for last season’s White Sox. He went from never being a primary starter at the major league, minor league or college level to getting the ball for the first pitch of the season.

What followed was the prelude to one of the most unlikely elite starting pitcher seasons in recent history. Six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts to begin last season was Crochet’s introduction for a season where he was tied for the sixth highest fWAR among all pitchers despite ranking 76th in innings pitched.

Eovaldi will start his second consecutive Opening Day with Texas, ending the franchise’s 16-year streak without a repeat Opening Day starter. Since joining the Rangers rotation in 2023, Eovaldi has upped the usage of his splitter from 9.9% to 29.3%. In that time, opponents have hit .198 and slugged .299 against his splitter. The pitch also produced a 36.2% whiff rate and 1.4 RV/100 in two seasons.

#4 – Pablo López (MIN) vs Sonny Gray (STL)

Pablo López is entering his third season with the Twins and will make his third straight Opening Day start. Gray is going into the second year of his Cardinals contract and will make his Opening Day debut in St. Louis. Gray will also face his former team for the second time since signing his contract with the Cardinals.

López is set to become the fifth Twins pitcher to start three straight games on Opening Day. On Thursday, he will look to continue the success he has had in his career against the Cardinals.

In six career starts against St. Louis, López has posted a 2.33 ERA in 38.2 innings. It’s the lowest ERA he owns against any team with at least 35 innings pitched. López has also tallied 39 strikeouts to five walks against the Cardinals.

Gray will look to continue his legacy as one of the best Opening Day starters of all time. In three career Opening Day starts between Oakland and Cincinnati, Gray has thrown 20 innings and posted a 0.45 ERA. It stands as the 10th lowest ERA among the 291 pitchers in baseball history to log at least 20 innings in Opening Day games. Gray’s 10.98 K/9 in 2024 was the second highest among all qualifying pitchers.

#3 – Chris Sale (ATL) vs Michael King (SD)

It’s the matchup we could have gotten to begin last year’s playoffs. Although we weren’t able to watch this matchup to start October, we now get it to start the 2025 season.

Chris Sale will make his sixth career Opening Day start, the most of anyone on the mound for game one this year. Michael King, only in his second full year as a starter, will make his Opening Day debut.

Sale, at long last, won his first career Cy Young Award last season. He did so by posting his most innings since 2017, his lowest ERA since 2018 and his highest K/9 since 2019.

For the just the second time in his career, Sale used his world-class slider as his primary pitch in 2024. Naturally, opponents hit .157 and slugged .236 against his famous weapon. Opponents also whiffed on 42.7% of swings against Sale’s slider and posted an average exit velocity of 82.4 mph.

King will begin his season by facing a Braves lineup he is quite familiar with. In the first game of last year’s Wild Card Series, King was stellar to begin his team’s postseason run.

Facing Atlanta’s fierce but injured lineup, King delivered seven scoreless innings with no walks and 12 strikeouts. It was the first game in postseason history where a pitcher tallied no earned runs allowed, no walks, no hit by pitches and 12 strikeouts. He also helped his team become the first with no walks, no runs allowed and 15+ strikeouts in a postseason game.

#2 – Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)

For the names alone, this has a case to be the matchup of the day. Paul Skenes has taken the baseball world by storm over the last year. Accomplishing things like starting the All-Star Game, winning Rookie of the Year and being a finalist for NL Cy Young all in his first professional season.

On the home side, Sandy Alcantara will make his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner will take the mound for the first time in 571 days.

To start his major league career, Paul Skenes posted a 1.96 ERA in 133 innings. It was the lowest ERA among all qualifying pitchers from the date he made his debut through the end of the season.

With 170 strikeouts, his 11.5 K/9 ranked third highest among all seasons age 22 or younger with at least 100 innings pitched. At 22 years and 302 days old, Skenes will become the youngest Pirates pitcher to start a game on Opening Day.

Alcantara will be starting his fifth Opening Day game, adding to his already-owned Marlins franchise record. Through the years, Alcantara has logged 23.1 innings in Opening Day games and has produced a 2.31 ERA.

Despite missing the entire 2024 season, Alcantara’s 10 complete games over the last five seasons lead all pitchers since 2020. No other pitcher has thrown more than seven complete games in that span.

#1 – Tarik Skubal (DET) vs Blake Snell (LAD)

The best showdown on the mound to start the season will take place in Chavez Ravine. The 2024 AL Cy Young and 2023 NL Cy Young will face off in a battle between last year’s surprise playoff team and the defending World Series champions.

Over the last two seasons, Skubal (2.51) and Snell (2.57) have the lowest and second lowest ERAs among the 79 pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched.

Skubal will get his second consecutive Opening Day start after winning the AL pitching Triple Crown in 2024. Last season, he kicked off his Cy Young campaign by hurling six scoreless innings with six strikeouts against the White Sox.

Opening Day will mark Skubal’s second career start against the Dodgers. In July of 2024, he pitched six innings, allowed two runs and struck out eight against LA’s talented lineup.

While this game will not be the Dodgers season opener, it will be Snell’s third time pitching on Opening Day, and the third team he’s done it for.

Snell will make his fourth career start against Detroit, a team that has historically had his number. Throughout his career, Snell has posted a 6.06 ERA against the Tigers in 16.1 innings. However, he has not faced Detroit since 2019, and no one from the June 4th lineup that year remains in the organization.