Ranking the top 25 MLB free agents

Ohtani underwent elbow surgery, and is likely to only be an option as a DH in 2024. We'll never really know how the injury truly impacts his free agency, but there's little doubt he's set to receive a record-breaking contract. Likely to win his second MVP this year, Ohtani led the AL in home runs, on-base, and slugging percentage while also being a Cy Young candidate before getting injured. Add in the marketing opportunities that come with rostering the most popular baseball player in the world, and anything short of a $500 million contract would be a surprise.

Snell had the second-best season of his career at just the right time. The lefty won the AL Cy Young with the Rays in 2018, and returned to that form in 2023 as an almost unhittable force with a sub-6.0 H/9 for the second time in his career. There are multiple reasons for teams to be wary, as Snell has thrown 130 innings only twice in MLB and his control has never been worse. Still, starting pitching is at a premium, and there isn't a pitcher better at missing bats on the market.

Gray is coming off two brilliant seasons in Minnesota as he enters free agency. More recently, the drawback for Gray has been health, but he answered those questions by making 30-plus starts in 2023 for the fourth time in his career. There is a warning for teams paying for his Cy Young-level season, with a low home run rate that's likely to regress, but Gray has proven that he's a 3.00 ERA pitcher when he's not in a hitter's park.

Teams looking for reliable innings can't do better in this market than Nola. His recent durability has been as great as any pitcher in recent memory, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five full seasons. However, his performance on the field has been a bit of an enigma, posting a worse-than-league-average ERA for the second time in three seasons despite excellent command. Optimistic teams will likely point to his hitter's atmosphere in Philly for an excuse as to why Nola can be fixed, and his track record with two top-five Cy Young finishes shows the upside. With Nola's durability, it wouldn't be a shock to see him lead all starting pitchers not named Ohtani in contract value.

The start to Bellinger's career in LA was historic with the NL Rookie of the Year in 2017 and MVP in 2019, but his production has been in a freefall since then. A change of scenery was the answer, as Bellinger bounced back to go 20/20 with an OPS near .900 for the Cubs in 2023. The rebound comes at just the right time as Bellinger enters free agency, and his ability to play multiple positions well adds to the attractiveness. Bellinger is likely the top non-Ohtani hitter on the market but not without risk given his past struggles.

There's always romance in bringing in a player from Japan with Earth-shattering numbers, as Yamamoto has certainly shown. The 25-year-old right-hander has an unbelievable 1.75 ERA in seven seasons, with one of the best streaks of performance in Japanese League history. He's not only shown elite control, with a 1.5 BB/9 this season, but also shows upper-90's velocity. His dominance at the World Baseball Classic this year just adds fuel to the fire.

Chapman is a bit of an enigma. There are few better defensive players or batters who hit the ball harder, yet the talent hasn't shown in his all-round offensive production. Chapman has been just around league average as a hitter in two of the last three seasons, and failed to come close to 20 home runs in 2023. He's hit as many as 36 home runs in a single season and still plays Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, so suitors will likely line up for his services and overlook the blemishes.

Montgomery enters free agency on a high note, coming off a career year between St. Louis and Texas. The left-hander has blossomed into a super-reliable pitcher, making at least 30 starts in three consecutive seasons after returning from Tommy John surgery. There are more dominant pitchers, but Montgomery's control is among the best in baseball and he's shown improvement keeping the ball in the park. Montgomery is inching closer to 200 innings, an upswing that should make him very attractive.

Stroman is likely to be a free agent this offseason, as he has a player option. While Stroman was solid in two seasons with the Cubs, durability was an issue in both seasons coming short of 150 innings. That's a red flag for a pitcher who had made durability one of his calling cards before arriving on the North Side. However, Stroman still brings a high floor as a groundball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park and generally throws strikes.

ERod had a disappointing first season in Detroit as he dealt with off-field issues, but he successfully rebounded in 2023. The lefty missed time with a finger injury but posted a sub-4.00 ERA for the fourth time in his career, doing a great job keeping the ball down while fanning nearly one batter per inning. It's not a sure thing that Rodriguez will opt out of his contract given that he seems happy in Detroit and vetoed a deal to L.A. at the trade deadline, but he'd likely be able to earn more money by at least renegotiating his deal.

Hader got back on track after a befuddling run last season, posting an ERA near 1.00 for the second time in three years. The left-hander still brings high-90s gas and corrected the home run issues that ailed him in 2022. Control remains an issue for Hader that makes him a risk on a long-term deal as his stuff likely starts to deteriorate in his 30s, but he's at the high-end of closer talent and track record.

Chapman revived his career this season at age 35, averaging better than 99 mph on his fastball again after losing some oomph last year. His low save total in 2023 doesn't reflect what he showed on the mound, tallying his fifth 100-strikeout season with a ridiculous strikeout rate even better than his career average. Handing a long-term deal to a mid-30s reliever whose game is dependent on velocity would be a risky move, but Chapman has the best overall track record of any closer in baseball.

Lugo has a player option he's likely to decline after a tremendous transition to the starting rotation for the Padres. The curveball wizard hadn't been a regular MLB starter since 2017, but he's a very reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm with a sub-4.00 ERA and elite control. There are questions about Lugo's innings ceiling, but his elite control and curveball should play. Lugo enters his age 34 season deserving of a lucrative, long-term deal.

Kershaw's body has been breaking down for several years, and the last time he made 25 starts was all the way back in 2019. That said, the future Hall of Famer has somehow continued to pitch like a Cy Young winner when on the mound, posting, an ERA well south of 3.00 in 2023 like he did in 2022. A shoulder injury sapped his velocity late this season and is a major red flag, but Kershaw's secondary repertoire was enough to overcome the issues. If he opts to continue his career, it would be a surprise if Kershaw pitches anywhere other than the Dodgers.

The streaky Soler struggled in the first season of his two-year deal in 2022 but turned on the power this season as he neared 40 home runs. Primarily a DH these days, Soler doesn't offer much beyond pure power, but there aren't many hitters capable of launching 40 home runs in a season. If he opts out of his current contract, Soler has an opportunity for another lucrative, long-term deal.

Giolito's decline over the last two seasons has been discouraging, posting an ERA well above 4.00 after struggling down the stretch with the Angels and Guardians. To be fair to Giolito, he had a 3.79 ERA in 21 starts in Chicago before getting traded in July, and did see a bit of a velocity rebound after his huge decline in 2022. Keeping the ball down will obvious be key to Giolito's future success, but there's a lot to work with with a K/9 that's hovered around 10.0 recently.

With a successful return from Tommy John surgery during the second half of 2023, Ryu enters the free agent market with momentum. The veteran lefty is now one of the softest throwers in baseball, averaging just 88 mph on his fastball upon his return, but that didn't reflect in his ERA. This could be a buyer-beware situation with Ryu's FIP above 5.0 and poor strikeout rate after returning, but his wide pitch repertoire and elite control does raise his floor.

Wacha was quite a bargain for the Padres after signing late, proving last year's sub-4.00 ERA wasn't a fluke. He isn't the power pitcher we saw early in his career with the Cardinals, but Wacha has found a recipe for success. Slipping velocity and continued durability issues do stand as a red flag, but Wacha's recent success should earn him consideration for a long-term deal.

Getting out of Toronto, Hernandez got off to a very slow start in 2023 but eventually returned to the power numbers we've grown accustomed to seeing from him. Hernandez his hit at least 25 home runs in each of the last four full seasons, though his 30% strikeout rate and so-so defense hurt his overall value.

Hoskins suffered a torn ACL at the worst possible time, entering his contract year. He put enough on paper to earn a big contract in spite of the year off, hitting 148 home runs over his first six MLB seasons. Between the injury and age (31), there will likely be some nervousness about giving Hoskins a long-term deal this offseason, but he has the ability to positively impact an offense immediately.

Coming back from a terrible 2022 season, Candelario had his best full season offensively and outshined fellow third-base free agent Matt Chapman. It's not a stretch to expect an OPS near .800 in the near future given that Candelario has been around the number or better in three of the last four seasons, and he remains adequate defensively at the hot corner.

Maeda's return from Tommy John surgery was an adventure, barely exceeding 100 innings due to various injuries. Long balls remained an issue that plagued Maeda, but he finished with an ERA near 4.00 and more than one strikeout per inning, as usual. Maeda enters his age-36 season next year but should have a lot left as long as his team doesn't count on a huge innings total.

Martinez's bat got back on track with the move west to L.A. and help of hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc. While Martinez's walk rate declined, he hit more than 30 home runs for the first time since 2019 as a premier power bat once again. He's stuck at DH these days and has some durability concerns, but offered enough reason in 2023 for teams to pay up on a short-term deal.

Mahle's stay in Minnesota over the last two years was a bummer, suffering a shoulder injury late in 2022 following by Tommy John surgery in May. The surgery will likely keep Mahle out until the middle of 2024, but the upside has earned him a big contract. The right-hander has a cumulative 3.90 ERA in 374 innings since 2020, and has done most of his work in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

The oft-injured Paxton got his MLB career on the right track in 2023 after making a total of six starts in the previous three seasons. The lefty showed signs of his old ability with more than one strikeout per inning with the return of his mid-90s fastball, though the final ERA of 4.50 was a bit of a disappointment. It's difficult to imagine Paxton earning more than one year on a new contract given his recent injuries, but the upside is there for him to see eight figures.