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Rays Ace Shane McClanahan Receives Unsurprising Arbitration Projection

Originally posted on Tampa Bay Rays on SI
By Kenneth Teape | Last updated Oct 7, 2025 1:10 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be incredibly busy this offseason when it comes to potential arbitration cases with players on their roster. They have 17 eligible players, which is the most for a single team heading into the winter.

One of the players whom the Rays will be looking to negotiate with is their ace, Shane McClanahan. A first-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft out of South Florida, he has certainly lived up to the billing when he has been on the mound.

Alas, staying on the mound has been an insurmountable challenge for him over the last few years. He unfortunately hasn’t pitched for Tampa Bay since Aug. 2, 2023. After injuring his elbow, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery, missing the 2024 campaign.

McClanahan was in line to return to the rotation in 2025, but he suffered another setback. This time, it was with his left triceps, where he was dealing with a nerve issue in his pitching arm.

He would get back on the mound for the first time on July 8, making an appearance in the Florida Complex League. His rehab was then moved to Triple-A Durham, where he made two short appearances.

That would be the last time he took the mound in 2025. In August, he underwent a procedure to fix the issue and was ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.

How much will Shane McClanahan get in arbitration from Rays?

Having not pitched since 2023 and recovering from a second surgery, it comes as no surprise that arbitration projections aren’t very high for McClanahan. As shared by MLB Trade Rumors, he is expected to receive $3.6 million for 4.158 years of service time.

That is the same amount of money that he earned in 2024 and 2025 after signing a two-year, $7.2 million contract. The deal bought out some years of arbitration, providing him with some security as he worked through his rehab.

It was a smart deal for both sides at the time, but unfortunately for the Rays, McClanahan was unable to get back on the mound in 2025 to provide the team with any value.

That could certainly change in 2026. The expectation is that the talented lefty will make a full recovery and be prepared to participate in spring training once it rolls around in February.

A two-time All-Star, if he can regain that form, Tampa Bay will be getting a steal on that arbitration number. McClanahan has all the talent of an ace, finishing sixth in the American League Cy Young Award voting in 2022.

If he gets close to that level of production, the Rays will be in great shape on the mound. Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and All-Star Drew Rasmussen are a strong trio to build around. Adding McClanahan raises their ceiling even more.