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Rays' fire sale is bad look for franchise
After rallying for a 2-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Rays improved their record to 54-52 and sit just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot in the American League. They might not be among the top World Series contenders in the league, and missing the playoffs might be more likely than making them, but they are still very much in it.
You would not know that by watching the actions of the front office at the trade deadline as they are in the process of gutting their Major League roster with one of the biggest pre-deadline fire sales in the league.
It continued on Sunday afternoon, just hours after their win, when they sent All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs for Christopher Morel and two prospects.
Paredes joins outfielder Randy Arozarena, starting pitcher Zach Eflin and relief pitcher Jason Adam as core players going away before Tuesday's deadline.
They might not be done as Yandy Diaz and more arms could also be sent out.
The primary return in all of those deals are prospects.
There is going to be a segment of the baseball-watching community — fans and media — that is going to celebrate this as a shrewd movement, good value and keep an eye on the future, especially when the next prospect rankings come out.
In some ways, it does make some degree of sense for the Rays to aggressively sell if the market is there. There are not many sellers at this year's deadline, and the Rays were happy to step into that void and get back good prospect value. ESPN's Jeff Passan argued on Sunday that the Rays might end up having one of the best farm systems in baseball when all of this is complete going into next season.
The Jason Adam deal, first reported by @ByRobertMurray, is the latest to deliver impact prospect to the Rays. Their decision to sell in a thin market has added immense talent to an already-good minor league group. They may well have the best farm system in baseball by July 31.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 28, 2024
There is value in that, and the Rays have done a mostly strong job over the past decade with five consecutive playoff appearances prior to this season.
But is this really something to be celebrating? And it is it wise to completely trust that same process?
For one, banking on young talent and prospects to this degree carries a lot of risk. No matter how good your scouting is, and no matter how good you think your player development is, there are a lot of variables that come with this approach. Players get injured, some players do not develop the way you hope, others are not as good as you think. It requires the team to thread an incredibly small needle and get everything right at the same time to have a chance.
Just because it worked once does not mean it will work again.
Even with that success there has also been a sense of disappointment given how many times they have lost earlier than expected in the playoffs, mainly due to a lack of a star power across the roster.
Beyond that, the Rays are in the process of finalizing a stadium deal that includes a fair amount of public money being invested into the construction and surrounding infrastructure. When the public is helping to foot the ball for your building, there should be an expectation that ownership invest heavily into the product. Selling off your roster when the playoffs are within striking distance probably is not the type of thing that will inspire much confidence.
More must-reads:
- Rays trade former All-Star infielder to surprising team
- Randy Arozarena watches Rays game from stands after being traded
- The '2018 first-time MLB All-Stars' quiz
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