Rays’ Solid Run Differential Didn’t Lead to the Postseason

Rays’ Healthy Run Differential Wasn’t Enough for October

The Rays are usually masters at run differential because of their stout pitching and defense. The run differential stat is probably the easiest to understand because it gives observers a sense of just how lucky/unlucky a baseball team is over the course of a 162-game regular season. The Rays’ run differential is much higher than that of the Houston Astros, who are floating around the outskirts of a postseason spot.

In the Rays’ case, the stat tells us just how unlucky they really were. According to the Tampa Bay Times‘ John Romano, since 1961, there have been 71 teams with a run differential between +45 and +55. Of those teams, 96 percent had winning records! Add it all up, and the Rays will finish with their second straight losing season. That is extremely disappointing and leaves fans in an angry mood. Scanning the game logs in the month of July demonstrates all the tumult the club experienced. That 7-18 month in which the pitching staff became extremely shaky offers clues as to why they find themselves in the current predicament.

Momentum as Good as Next Day’s Starting Pitcher

Rays pitchers have posted a 3.87 ERA this season, which ranks just outside the top ten in the majors. One game in July brings to mind how the ball just wasn’t bouncing the Rays’ way. Zack Littell started the opener of a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds, a team he would eventually be traded to, and his final line was a little deceiving based on the way he pitched. Littell pitches to contact, and he yielded 10 hits in the outing. After a single by Austin Hays in the fourth inning, the next ball was put in play, and Hays angled himself to get in the way of the throw by running so close to the grass. The throw hit Hays, and everyone was safe. A bunt single followed, and the Reds had the bases loaded. The Reds would eventually grab a lead they would never relinquish.

The ball literally left the infield twice, and yet the Reds scored the go-ahead runs. That sequence shows how things can get out of control. Does anyone think the Rays playing 81 home games at Steinbrenner Field didn’t have something to do with the ultimate results? Players occasionally mentioned the direction of the wind when catching fly balls in the outfield. That stuff can cause the game to go in a number of directions.

The Last Word

The journey back to postseason relevance for the Rays is not an impossible mountain to climb. They had plenty of health in their starting rotation this season. They made smart trades with those pitchers. The lineup is anchored by a handful of young and dynamic talents. Baseball is a game where the ball may not bounce in your direction for an extended period of time. Then the ball will bounce your way all of a sudden. Hopefully, the Rays can put this season in the rear-view mirror and embark on a new campaign in which they won’t be on the opposite end of so many unlucky bounces.