Red Sox interested in Mitch Keller

The Red Sox are among a number of teams with interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, according to a report from Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Hiles mentions the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs as being among the other teams that have reached out to the Pirates about Keller, though each of those clubs has previously been connected to the righty this summer.

It should be of little surprise that Boston would have interest in Keller’s services. The 2023 All-Star is in the midst of a career season with the Pirates. He’s posted a 3.69 ERA in 22 starts with a 3.44 FIP. Keller’s strikeout rate (18.8%) is down substantial from previous seasons, which could be a cause for concern, but his 6.6% barrel rate is the lowest of his career and he’s limited his walks to a tidy 6.2%, also a career low. More advanced metrics are skeptical of Keller’s ability to continue producing at this rate with such a low strikeout rate, however; the right-hander’s 4.21 SIERA is the 18th-weakest figure among the league’s 59 qualified starters this year. That suggests he may profile more as a back-of-the-rotation starter than the playoff-caliber #2 his surface-level numbers this year might otherwise make him out to be.

Despite those concerns, Keller remains an attractive trade target. He’s been fairly durable in recent years, with the league’s 12th-highest innings total since 2022, and at just 29 years old he’ll remain in his prime for a few more seasons. With three more years of team control after this one after he signed an extension with the Pirates last year, Keller would be a fixture of an acquiring club’s rotation for years to come. That should be especially attractive to the Red Sox, who figure to lose both Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler to free agency this winter and will need reliable arms to fill out the remainder of their rotation alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. He should be attractive to a number of other teams as well; in addition to the clubs mentioned above, Keller has also been connected to the Blue Jays.

Despite that solid base of teams Keller is drawing interest from, however, Hiles emphasizes that there’s no guarantee he’ll actually be traded this summer. Hiles reports that the Pirates are “comfortable” holding onto Keller if their “steep” asking price isn’t met, and Hiles adds that Pittsburgh could revisit dealing Keller in the offseason, when it could be easier to pry a hitter already in the majors away from interested clubs. That seems likely to be true of the Red Sox, at least. Boston outfielder Jarren Duran has been the frequent subject of trade speculation in recent weeks due to the club’s logjam of talent in the outfield, but the latest signals point to the club holding onto him this summer and re-evaluating over the winter.

Duran, an above-average everyday player controlled through the end of the 2028 season, is the exact sort of player the Pirates are surely dreaming of acquiring. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Pirates are holding out for a controllable hitter of that caliber and ultimately decide to keep Keller in the fold in order to try again this winter if that asking price isn’t met. Of course, that strategy would run the risk of interested clubs pivoting elsewhere once free agency opens up additional options. With roughly $56MM left on his deal after the 2025 season, Keller is more expensive financially than the typical trade target. That could leave his market to be more impacted by free agency than the average trade piece, at least during the offseason. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Woodruff are among the many intriguing starting pitchers who figure to be available this winter, and some teams would likely prefer to pay for one of those arms rather than surrendering both budget space and talent to land Keller in the winter.