Red Sox interested in this trio of starting pitchers

The Red Sox are known to be on the lookout for starting pitching, having already been connected to arms like Mitch Keller and Dylan Cease. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that they have also shown interested in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR adds that the Sox have been monitoring Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins.

All three pitchers are seen as likely candidates to be traded before the deadline. The Diamondbacks have already started selling players approaching free agency. They flipped first baseman Josh Naylor to the Mariners and outfielder Randal Grichuk to the Royals. They will likely trade third baseman Eugenio Suárez as well.

Like all of those players, Gallen and Kelly are impending free agents and both should have value. With Gallen, 29, the question will be how much other clubs put stock into this year’s struggles versus his better numbers in the past. He came into this season with 815 1/3 career innings, having allowed 3.29 earned runs per nine. He had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 43.8% ground ball rate.

This year, however, his strikeout rate has fallen to 22.1%. That has been part of the reason his ERA has climbed to 5.60. There’s also a bit of bad luck in there, as his 64% strand rate is to the unfortunate side, as is his 16.3% home run to fly ball rate. His 4.75 FIP and 4.14 SIERA are a bit more optimistic than his ERA but still point to him not quite being the same pitcher this year.

Still, there’s a lack of clear ace types on the trade market this year. There have been some rumors surrounding pitchers like MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan. However, a trade of either of those guys still seems like a long shot. Perhaps there are clubs out there who see a way to get Gallen back on track. He is making $13.5M this year, which is notable but still below market for a solid starter. He’s already been connected to the Blue Jays and now Red Sox but his market surely extends to plenty of other clubs.

Kelly doesn’t have ace upside but his profile is more steady and he’s having a better year. The 36-year-old has a 3.74 ERA in his career, along with a 22.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate. He had a 3.37 ERA in 2022 and a 3.29 mark the year after. His ERA spiked a bit last year as he battled injuries settling at 4.03. This year, he’s back down to 3.22. His 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate this season are all better than average. He’s only making $7M this year, basically half of Gallen.

Alcantara, like Gallen, would be more of a bet on past performance. Alcantara won a Cy Young award in 2022 but missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his return from that procedure has not been smooth. In 109 innings this year, he has a 6.36 earned run average. His 45.6% ground ball rate is still above league average but he was regularly above 50% in previous seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a huge drop, as he was in the 22-24% range in his best years.

It’s a tricky spot for the Marlins to be in. They are rebuilding and surely want to cash in Alcantara for young talent. However, given his performance, they might not get their asking price and could decide to hold. Alcantara is under contract for next year with a $17M salary, then there’s a $21M club option with a $2M buyout for 2027. If Miami can’t find a deal to its liking, they could try in the offseason or at next year’s deadline. Though the current market conditions might prompt some club to take a chance on Sandy.

For the Red Sox, they have Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Dobbins all on the injured list. Their healthy rotation has Garrett Crochet at the front but then things get dicey after that. Walker Buehler has a 5.72 ERA. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 4.16 SIERA. Brayan Bello has a 3.32 ERA but a 4.26 FIP and 4.37 SIERA. There’s room to upgrade.

Payroll wise, Roster Resource has the Sox right up against the competitive balance tax. However, club decision makers expressed a willingness to pay the tax this year. In fact, their CBT number was over the line before they traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. That suggests they could have some ability to take on a bit of money in order to bolster their roster for the stretch run.