Red Sox vs. Reds odds, pick, prediction for 6/21: Can Boston stay red-hot?

Red Sox vs. Reds Odds

Friday, Jun 21, 7:10 p.m. ET, BSOH

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Boston Red Sox

In his third full season in the majors, Kutter Crawford has enjoyed a breakout campaign in his age-28 season. He has a 3.54 ERA, 3.81 xERA, and 1.7 WAR through 15 starts, and primarily relies on three pitches — a four-seam fastball, cutter, and sweeper. He has been able to generate a 33% Chase Rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile and led to an above average Strikeout Rate — 88 strikeouts in 86 and 1/3 innings.

While Crawford has done well on the mound, it hasn't resulted in many wins thus far. Boston is just 4-11 in Crawford's starts this season and he is 3-6 entering today's game. That may be starting to turn around. Against the Yankees, Crawford turned another quality start with nine strikeouts while allowing three earned runs on three hits.

Boston's offense has sparked its hot run as it has scored six or more runs in seven of its past 10 games; averaging 5.9 runs per game during that span. It has gotten contributions up-and-down the lineup as Ceddanne Rafaela has really emerged of late. Rafaela is hitting .609 with three doubles, a home run, four runs batted in, and a 1.495 OPS over the last week, mostly out of the nine hole.

Meanwhile, leadoff hitter Jarren Duran and catcher Connor Wong both enter tonight's game with 10-game hitting streaks. Tyler O'Neill and Rafael Devers lead the team with 15 and 14 home runs, respectively.

Cincinnati Reds

One positive development for the Reds this season has been the emergence of their trio of young starters — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott. Greene and Lodolo combined to allow one run while striking out 17 in 13 and 1/3 innings in the final two  games against Pittsburgh. They both typically find their success with a high volume of strikeouts, but Abbott finds success in his own right.

He is striking out just 6.8 batters per nine innings and has seen has his Strikeout Rate decrease by eight percent from his rookie season. However, he has also reduced his Hard Hit Rate by over 11%, ranking in the 91st percentile in the category and 70th percentile with a .228 xBA. One key for him tonight will be keeping the ball in the yard, as Abbott has allowed 13 home runs in 79 innings, including five at home.

That will certainly be important if his offense doesn't get going. In Pittsburgh, the Reds scored just three runs in three games. Additionally, they're averaging just 2.6 runs over their past 10 games and hitting .221 against right-handed pitching this season. Returning home may not help matters as the team is hitting a surprising .213 at Great American Ballpark.

The club could use a boost from Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting just .212 this month. Just getting on base creates a spark for the team as De La Cruz leads the MLB with 37 steals.

Red Sox vs. Reds

Betting Pick & Prediction

With Crawford opposing Abbott in this game, we have a fairly even starting pitching matchup along with rested bullpens. However, Boston's offense has performed much better of late, averaging three more runs per game over the last week and a half. They are also averaging five runs per game on the road where they are 22-15 this season.

Additionally, Crawford has a 2.62 ERA in six road starts. He should find a lot of success against a Reds lineup that is third in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching.

Considering these advantages, I have to back the Red Sox moneyline particularly at nearly even odds. You can also get plus odds by Kutter Crawford for five strikeouts with Red Sox moneyline as a player performance double at +142 on DraftKings.

Pick: Red Sox ML (-105, DraftKings)