Sep 19, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran (16) is congratulated after hitting a two-run home run during the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Red Sox's Magic Number Drops By One; Still Can't Shake Surging Guardians

Originally posted on Boston Red Sox on SI
By Jackson Roberts | Last updated Sep 20, 2025 7:30 AM ET

When things have looked bleak for the Boston Red Sox this season, there's often been a new hero waiting to deliver a timely hit.

On Friday night in Tampa, that hero was Jarren Duran. Facing a 3-2 deficit against a nasty lefty with a low-two ERA in the Tampa Bay Rays' Garrett Cleavinger, Duran launched a two-run home run and admired it as it came down on the roof of the right field pavilion. In the middle of a September slide and a tightening American League playoff race, Duran's swing jolted the Red Sox to life.

Unfortunately, rather than celebrating a true banner night, Boston simply had to be grateful they didn't lose more ground to the white-hot Cleveland Guardians.

Red Sox's updated magic number: 7

The 11-7 win boosted the Red Sox to 84-70, while also eliminating the Rays (75-79) from playoff contention. However, the Guardians (82-71) pulled out a late win of their own, downing the Minnesota Twins by a score of 6-2 after scoring four runs in the game's final two innings.

Because Boston owns the tiebreaker over Cleveland, the magic number to break the Sox's playoff drought is down to seven. In other words, a combination of seven Red Sox wins and Guardians losses sends Boston back to the postseason.

There were other results around the American League with critical implications on the Red Sox's chances as well.

The Seattle Mariners (85-69) downed the Houston Astros (84-70) in the first face-off of a three-game set that could very well determine the AL West title. That means the Red Sox enter play Saturday tied with the Astros for the second wild card, and Boston owns the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series.

Boston and Houston aren't the only teams feeling the heat from Cleveland. The suddenly floundering Detroit Tigers (85-69) got blown out at home by the Atlanta Braves, and after leading the Guardians by as many as 15 1/2 games this summer, their lead in the AL Central is down to 2 1/2. The two teams will play another three-game series from Monday to Wednesday.

The New York Yankees also lost, so the Red Sox are only two games back of the first wild card spot and the chance to host a first-round playoff series.

According to Fangraphs, the Red Sox's playoff odds entering Saturday stood at 87.8%, up 4.8% from the previous day. Cleveland is all the way up to 35.5%, and there are plenty of scenarios where the Guardians and Red Sox could both sneak in.

This article first appeared on Boston Red Sox on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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