Cincinnati Reds director of pitching Derek Johnson (36) talks with pitcher Chase Burns (26) during a warmup session at the Cincinnati Reds player development complex in Goodyear, Ariz., on Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026. Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Reds Beat Writer Makes Shocking Opening Day Roster Projection

Originally posted on Cincinnati Reds on SI
By Zach Pressnell | Last updated Mar 16, 2026 1:39 PM ET

The Cincinnati Reds were recently dealt some crushing news earlier this offseason when they found out Hunter Greene needed arthroscopic surgery. He will miss half the season and is hoping to return in July.

As a result, there's a lot of pressure on the young pitchers in Cincinnati, including Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns.

Reds beat writer C. Trent Rosecrans recently put together a roster prediction following Greene's injury. Rosecrans projected the starting rotation would include the three locks Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer. Rosecrans also predicted the Reds would use Lowder and Brandon Williamson to round out their roster, opting to send Burns to Triple-A.

"Burns threw just 24 pitches in his start Friday. The Reds didn’t like how Burns’ arm was moving and were addressing it right off the bat," Rosecrans wrote. "If Burns isn’t built up to where other starters are, it may be best to err on the side of caution with what could be a generational arm.

"Burns figures to be a large part of the Reds’ pitching staff this season, so slow-playing Burns’ contribution makes all the sense in the world, especially with how Williamson has comported himself this spring. That said, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the three break camp in the team’s rotation. By the end of the season, expect not just those three, but also Aguiar to contribute this season."

Chase Burns is a Lock for the Opening Day Roster

Rosecrans cited a recent "deload" outing from Burns as the reason why. But this situation is being blown way out of proportion.

Burns has worked up to 50 or so pitches this spring, but his most recent outing saw him throw two shutout innings. Following the game, the Reds said that Burns has been working very hard and needed a bit of a "deload" game to make sure his arm health is where they need it to be for opening day.

This isn't indicative of an injury. This isn't indicative that he's not ready to throw multiple innings for the Reds. This is simply Cincinnati's coaching staff being proactive with one of the team's most valuable arms.

Burns is seemingly a lock for the opening day roster. He has the potential to be one of the best young pitchers in the entire league. Leaving him off the opening day roster would be front office malpractice from the Reds, barring an injury or other setback for the righty.

While Williamson has been one of the better pitchers for the Reds this spring, he's likely going to be the first man off the roster. There's also a chance he could carve out a role as a reliever with the chance to turn into a spot starter, similar to the role Nick Martinez manned last year.

This article first appeared on Cincinnati Reds on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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