Reds vs. Dodgers: Wild Card Series Preview

Offense:	Reds	Dodgers
HR	165 (t21)	241 (2nd)
RBI	675 (15th)	785 (2nd)
AVG	.245 (18th)	.253 (6th)
OBP	.315 (15th)	.328 (5th)
SLG	.391 (22nd)	.440 (2nd)
OPS	.706 (19th)	.787 (2nd)
wRC+	92 (t23rd)	113 (t2nd)
fWAR	12.9 (24th)	28.7 (5th)
Pitching
ERA	3.86 (11th)	3.97 (17th)
FIP	4.10 (17th)	3.95 (8th)
K%	22.8% (12th)	24.7% (2nd)
BB%	8.1% (13th)	9.3% (28th)
fWAR	19.4 (3rd)	20.4 (2nd)

Starting Pitching Matchups

*Not official at time of publication

Game 1: Hunter Greene vs. Blake Snell

• Hunter Greene (CIN) : 19 GS, 107.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 31.4% K%, 6.2% BB%, 2.9 fWAR
  

• Blake Snell (LAD): 11 GS, 61.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 28.3% K%, 10.2% BB%, 1.9 fWAR

Hunter Greene has continued to develop into one of the premier pitchers in the National League. He’s not only improved his command and limited the previous home runs issue, he’s matured into a great all around pitcher who is the leader of this staff and ready for a big moment.

He pitched against the Dodgers, in LA, back in August allowing three runs across five innings while only striking out three, the second lowest total for his season. I think he’s ready for revenge and will have to come up big if the Reds have any chance to win this series.

Snell has once again dealt with injuries this season but has been effective when healthy. The lefty veteran has been dialed in over the past three outings each going at least six innings, allowing just one run, while striking out 28 batters.

As is usually the case with Snell, his command will determine how deep into the game he’ll go. Even if he has one of his five-inning outs, the Dodgers have enough options to still have the game plan advantage.

Game 2: Andrew Abbott vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

• Andrew Abbott (CIN): 29 GS, 166.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 21.8% K%, 6.3% BB%, 3.9 fWAR
  

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 30 GS, 173.2 IP, 2.49 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 29.4% K%, 8.6% BB%, 5.0 fWAR
  

Andrew Abbott emerging into the pitcher he has become is one of the primary reasons the Reds are in the playoffs. Abbott started the season in remarkable fashion and his since struggled to get through five innings, although not blowing up, over the past month.

Yamamoto should be excited to pitch in front of the Dodger faithful after starting 10 of his past 13 on the road. Although this is only year two, Yamamoto is already a star. He struggled in his first postseason appearance last season, allowing five runs, but finished much stronger.

I think the Reds will have an incredibly difficult time handling the amount of offerings Yamamoto has. Cincinnati’s offense is not built to capitalize on the one or two mistake pitches and drive them out of the ballpark, which makes it tough for the Reds to generate runs against pitchers of this caliber.

Game 3 (If Needed): Nick Lodolo vs. Shohei Ohtani

• Nick Lodolo (CIN): 28 GS, 155.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 24.6% K%, 4.6% BB%, 2.9 fWAR
  

• Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 14 GS, 47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.90 FIP, 33% K%, 4.8% BB%, 1.9 pitching fWAR
  

Nick Lodolo finally put together what I would consider a healthy season, making a career high in starts while also posting the best numbers of his career.

However, Lodolo can be susceptible to a blow up, like the one he had in LA back in August allowing four runs in less than five innings. Beware, Lodolo has been a reverse splits pitcher this year which should make the top four of the Dodgers lineup even more dangerous.

Do I really have to say much about Ohtani, the best player we have seen play the sport?

We know the talent and the only true concern would be how many innings he can give the Dodgers. He’s pitched over five three times this season, with his most recent being a six-inning shutout.

Key Storylines to Watch: Reds

Will Terry Francona Get Out of His Own Way?

I recognize the faux pas of criticizing a Hall of Fame manager, but costly mistakes should not be swept under the rug because of what a guy did years ago. Tito deserves a lot of credit for how he has managed the people in the clubhouse and how he’s been able to get these players to play as a team, but he’s been far from deserving additional praise.

Sal Stewart was called up to help lift this team and he did just that. Five home runs in 55 at-bats only to sit him far too often. Miguel Andujar has been one of, if not the best, hitter on the team and plays far less than he should. Tyler Stephenson’s off day coming against a lefty. Keeping pitchers in when they are clearly expired. The list goes on.

I hate to have a negative angle on what seems to be such a likeable guy, but we are talking about the playoffs. As a big underdog, on the road. The margins are razor thin for the Reds and any and every managerial mistake counts exponentially. Tito has won in this league and has hardware to back it up and I hope we see that winning manager this week.

Win Game One

Anytime Hunter Greene is on the mound you will have a damn good chance of winning that game. Of course, the Dodgers being in the other dugout lessens that chance, but the Reds cannot afford to drop the first game.

If Snell, a lefty, is the starter the Reds righty heavy lineup will have to take advantage. Yes, the Reds are statistically better against righties than lefties this season, but considering who the righties are in the Dodgers rotation, I’ll take my chances with Snell and hope you can draw enough walks and chase him early enough to give yourself a chance.

If they can get to Snell, the Dodgers bullpen will be tapped into, which might not mean much in a three game series, but it could. Like I said, the Reds must win in the margins to have a chance and any disadvantage, no matter how slight, matters.

Can Elly De La Cruz Have a Moment?

Look, Elly has not had the season we all imagined. He’s slashed .264/.337/.437 with 21 home runs and only a 108 wRC+. The power took a step back and so did his speed on the bases, stealing 30 less bags than last season. Sure, a new coaching staff plays into that, but the Reds need to see Elly’s full potential in this series.

I think we can all agree the Reds are going to need to generate runs with less opportunities than the Dodgers. In order to do so, you might have to take a risk and allow Elly to run. Defensively, Elly cannot afford to make some of the lackadaisical errors we have seen all year.

When the lights are the brightest, stars need to shine. Can Elly rescue what feels like a down year by having a memorable moment, or even series? Time will tell.

Key Storylines to Watch: Dodgers

Can the Bullpen Step Up?

The Dodgers biggest issue has been their bullpen. Pitching to a over a 4.00 ERA with 26 blown saves was not something we had expected prior to the season.

Offseason addition Tanner Scott has not been the shutdown closer the Dodgers thought they were getting, and a number of their other arms are far from threatening.

However, the Dodgers moving starters, such as Emmitt Sheehan, Roki Sasaki, and potentially others, to the bullpen gives them a facelift and new identity. On sheer talent, the Dodgers have enough arms. But, several of these pitchers are new to this role which could come with complications.

Losing a couple of key veteran arms from their bullpen has led to a musical chairs of sorts which makes their playoff bullpen interesting. If Tyler Glasnow does factor into the bullpen the Dodgers chances become that much better.

If Will Smith Cannot Go, What Happens at Catcher?

Will Smith’s injury could sideline him from the Wild Card round, which leave a massive hole behind the plate. The two options the Dodgers have are Ben Rortvedt, who has played 17 games, and rookie Dalton Rushing.

I doubt the Dodgers get much out of either at the plate, but I’m more concerned behind the plate. Rortvedt has not caught these pitchers or called many games which is always an underrated wrinkle that could bring about problems. I would think the Dodgers lean into the vet, and better defender, instead of the rookie.

Rushing oozes talent but is just not quite there offensively. Defensively, I’m not sure he has enough to stick at catcher long term, but that’s a different story for a different day. I don’t love using pitcher ERA by catcher due to sample size and other factors, but I will note all three projected starters have a lower ERA with Rortvedt behind the dish.

Which Mookie Betts Do We See?

Mookie Betts comes with a lot of postseason experience and several big moments. Although, his .762 postseason OPS is not exactly the star level performance you would expect from such a talented player. His early season struggles were well documented but Betts has turned his first half .696 OPS around to a .796 OPS in the second half.

Down the stretch, Betts has really turned it on slashing .312/.356/.581 with six home runs in September. Do we see that hot streak ride into the playoffs making the top third of the Dodgers lineup as lethal as we know it can be?

The Dodgers success is much different when Mookie is going well compared to when he isn’t. In wins, Mookie has slashed .291/.364/.475. In losses, only .218/.276/.319. If Mookie plays to his best self the Dodgers are going to be tough to beat, no matter who the opponent is.

Prediction

Dodgers in Three

The Reds have enough pitching and bullpen that has turned into a weapon which I think helps them steal a game, most likely game 1. However, the Dodgers are far too talented and experienced to let a middling team like the Reds sneak by them.

The Reds have to play perfect baseball to win this series, the Dodgers just have to be above average.