Report: Astros RHP may require season-ending surgery

The 29-year-old Urquidy has yet to pitch this season, opening the year on the injured list with a forearm strain. He went out on a minor league rehab assignment last month, but he was pulled from his latest appearance after experiencing renewed discomfort in his forearm area. Houston skipper Joe Espada said late last week that Urquidy and fellow right-hander Cristian Javier were seeking opinions from other doctors for their respective forearm issues — always an ominous development for a pitcher when dealing with a forearm/elbow injury.

This marks the third time in four seasons that Urquidy has spent time on the injured list, though this would obviously be the most significant injury of the bunch. Shoulder troubles limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings back in 2021, and he missed more than three months of the 2023 campaign with another shoulder injury.

When healthy, Urquidy is a solid big-league arm. He was tagged for a 5.29 ERA last year, perhaps due to that shoulder injury, but has otherwise posted a sub-4.00 ERA mark in every big league season he’s pitched. He’s totaled 405 MLB frames and logged a 3.98 ERA. Urquidy’s 19.6 percent strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of the league average, but he’s also posted an excellent 5.8 percent walk rate in the majors which has helped him to offset the relative lack of whiffs. He’s been prone to homers, as one might expect from an undersized right-hander with average fastball velocity, but his changeup has been an excellent pitch that’s helped him to hold left-handers to a woeful .203/.255/.364 slash in his career.

Urquidy is one of several Houston rotation options who’s missed time this year. Both Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez are healthy now but have had stays on the injured list. The aforementioned Javier just landed on the 15-day IL recently. The ’Stros have also been without righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all season, with the former recovering from Tommy John surgery performed last May and the latter on the mend from flexor surgery performed last June.

The litany of injuries, paired with major steps back for right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown, has left Houston in what’s been an unfamiliar position for them in recent years: one of possessing a clear deficiency in the starting rotation. Starting pitching has been a hallmark of recent Astros clubs, but Houston starters rank 26th in baseball with a 4.69 ERA in 2024.

Brown has begun to right the ship after incorporating a new two-seamer into his repertoire, but he opened the season with 26 runs in 23 innings, so he has a ways to go before his numbers look respectable once again. France posted an ERA north of 7.00 and was optioned to Triple-A, where he’s since gone on the injured list with a shoulder injury. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti has been knocked around for a 5.98 ERA in his first nine MLB starts.

The quartet of Verlander, Valdez, Javier and breakout righty Ronel Blanco has combined for strong results this season, but Javier’s outlook is up in the air at the moment. Brown is holding down a rotation spot and can hopefully continue his recent stretch of productivity, but the depth behind the current group is suspect. Expected returns of Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia have been viewed as critical to the Astros as the summer wears on, but it now seems there’s a real chance Urquidy won’t make it back to the mound at all in 2024. Lefty Eric Lauer recently inked a minor league deal with the Astros but was hit hard in his first Triple-A start with the organization.

If Urquidy does go under the knife for the second Tommy John surgery of his career, he’ll miss the remainder of the 2024 season and likely the majority of the 2025 campaign as well. It seems quite possible that a surgery would end his tenure in Houston. He entered the 2024 season with 4.049 years of MLB service and will be paid $3.75M this season, potentially spending the entire year on the injured list. He’d then be arbitration-eligible one final time this offseason before qualifying as a free agent post-2025. However, if Urquidy is going to miss the bulk of next season, the Astros would likely non-tender him rather than pay him what’d likely be a repeat of this year’s $3.75M salary just to pitch the final couple months of next season in a best-case scenario.