Resolving Diamondbacks Starting Pitching Glut No Easy Task

Throughout the 2024-25 offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks have given indications they are not only open to, but are actually seeking to trade a starting pitcher. Even prior to the Corbin Burnes signing, they seemingly had a logjam of starters with not enough starts to go around.

So much so in fact that General Manager Mike Hazen uttered the phrase "excess starting pitching" during the winter meetings and touted not only his front line starters, but also the depth behind them.

The D-backs indeed traded from that depth, sending Slade Cecconi to the Cleveland Guardians for first baseman Josh Naylor on December 21. Nine days later they shocked the baseball world when Burnes fell into their laps. That signing further complicated the log jam at the top.

With the Burnes acquisition, the Diamondbacks now are seven deep in the rotation. In addition to Burnes they have Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond them there is depth in Triple-A Reno with young pitchers such as Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry, and Yu-Min Lin.

Following the Burnes introductory press conference, Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick indicated that a move could be coming soon. "We probably have too many starting pitchers. We may do something about that. We'll see."

But over one month later, a trade has not transpired. It still could of course, after all there are just over seven weeks left to go before opening day on March 27. But what happens if they don't make a trade, and all seven front line starters make it to the end of spring training healthy? As unlikely as that may seem, it's worth contemplating that scenario.

Rotation Locks

If everyone is healthy, there are four locks for the rotation, being Burnes, Gallen, Kelly, and Rodriguez. That leaves three pitchers with just one open rotation spot.

Scenario 1

The team could opt to keep Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation as the fifth starter. In that case they could put both Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson in the bullpen. While less than ideal, this would give the D-backs both right and left handed long relief options in the early going while the other starters are still building up innings the first few weeks.

An offshoot of this scenario is the team sends Nelson to Triple-A Reno to stay stretched out as a starter. They do not have the ability to option Montgomery to Reno.

Scenario 2

The team could decide to keep Montgomery in the rotation as the fifth starter. In that case they would have to decide which of Nelson or Pfaadt goes to the bullpen, and which one goes to Triple-A Reno to stay stretched out as a starter.

As unthinkable as it may seem, in this scenario Pfaadt may be more likely to go to Reno and stay stretched out. Nelson's repertoire and fastball would seem to lend itself more towards relief work, while Pfaadt's repertoire is one that works best as a starter.

Summary

None of these scenarios are ideal. At the same time, the D-backs still have holes to fill in their bullpen and lineup, where they're in need of a right-hand bat. It was thought that Montgomery would be traded by now and the savings from moving his salary would facilitate filling those holes.

But the team's strategy appears to be to wait out the market, hoping to reap the highest possible salary relief for Montgomery as spring training starts and other teams face injuries. That waiting game has a downside, however, as many if not most of the best reliever free agent options are already off the board.

By the time they actually achieve the salary relief they need to move forward, will there be anyone of consequence and potential impact left to sign? Mike Hazen is a patient man, and has proven in the past his cautious approach can work, having made significant late offseason transactions before. It looks like he'll need to do so again.

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