Reviewing the Los Angeles Dodgers' record-breaking offseason

The Dodgers stole all the headlines this offseason, as they gave out multiple record-breaking deals, traded for an ace and did a bunch of other stuff as well.

Major league signings

• RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani: 10 years, $700M ($680M deferred)
• RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 12 years, $325M (plus $51M posting fee; deal includes two opt-outs)
• OF Teoscar Hernández: One year, $23.5M ($8.5M deferred)
• LHP Clayton Kershaw: Two years, $10M (can opt-out after 2024)
• OF Jason Heyward: One year, $9M
• RHP Ryan Brasier: Two years, $9M
• RHP Joe Kelly: One year, $8M
• LHP James Paxton: One year, $7M
• IF/OF Enrique Hernández: One year, $4M
• RHP Ricky Vanasco: One year, $900K

2024 spending: $162.9M (counting Ohtani’s salary as the league-adjusted $46M; doesn’t include posting fee for Yamamoto)
Total spending: $1.096 billion (adjusting Ohtani’s guarantee to present day value of $460M makes this number $756.4M)

Option decisions

• Team declined $18M option on RHP Lance Lynn in favor of $1M buyout
• Team declined $9.5M option on RHP Joe Kelly in favor of $1M buyout (later re-signed)
• Team declined $6.5M option on RHP Daniel Hudson (later re-signed)
• Team declined $3M option on RHP Alex Reyes in favor of $100K buyout
• Team exercised $1M option on RHP Blake Treinen

Trades and claims

• Traded LHP Victor González and IF Jorbit Vivas to Yankees for IF Trey Sweeney
• Acquired RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from Rays for RHP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny DeLuca
• Traded LHP Bryan Hudson to Brewers for LHP Justin Chambers
• Traded IF Michael Busch and RHP Yency Almonte to Cubs for LHP Jackson Ferris and OF Zyhir Hope
• Traded LHP Caleb Ferguson to Yankees for LHP Matt Gage and RHP Christian Zazueta
• Traded OF Manuel Margot, IF Rayne Doncon and cash to Twins for SS Noah Miller
• Acquired IF Andre Lipcius from Tigers for cash

Notable minor league signings

• Daniel Hudson (already selected to roster), Eduardo Salazar, Nabil Crismatt, Travis Swaggerty, Jonathan Araúz, Elieser Hernández, Brendon Davis, Chris Okey, Jesse Hahn, Stephen Gonsalves, T.J. McFarland, Kevin Padlo, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Owings,

Extensions

• RHP Tyler Glasnow: Four years, $111.6M (includes club/player option for 2028)
• IF Max Muncy: Two years, $24M (includes 2026 club option)

Notable losses

• J.D. Martinez, Julio Urías (still unsigned), Shelby Miller, Lynn, Amed Rosario, Jake Marisnick, David Peralta, Kolten Wong, Jimmy Nelson (still unsigned), Alex Reyes (still unsigned)

The Dodgers have already been a powerhouse team for a long time, having won the National League West in 10 of the past 11 seasons. The one exception was 2021, when they won 106 games but somehow were one shy of a surprising 107-win Giants club.

But they still came into this winter hungry for improvements. That 11-year stretch of playoff appearances led to only one World Series title, which was in the shortened 2020 season. The 2023 season ended unpleasantly, despite the club winning 100 games and earning another division title. Their rotation was largely decimated by injuries as the season wore on, and they were quickly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

With the club looking to make a bold splash and this winter featuring one of the most anticipated free agents of all time, there were many who expected a pairing between the Dodgers and Ohtani. In fact, it’s something that has been expected for even longer than that.

When Ohtani initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers weren’t a perfect fit since the National League did not yet have the designated hitter, which led Ohtani to pick the Angels. But the NL got the DH in 2022, which started a countdown for many people, just waiting for the two-way superstar’s free agency.

The Dodgers were obviously going to be interested but also made their intentions clear by deciding not to issue a qualifying offer to J.D. Martinez. Under normal circumstances, he would have warranted one, given his strong 33-homer campaign in 2023. But if he had accepted, it would have clogged up the designated hitter spot they wanted to put Ohtani into, so they didn’t risk it.

It probably shouldn’t have been surprising that a player as unique as Ohtani ended up having one of the most unique free agencies. From the outset, it was marked by a strange insistence on secrecy, to the point that clubs would reportedly hurt their chances of signing him if they acknowledged that they were trying to do so. Perhaps the most absurd example of this was when Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins missed the winter meetings and met with reporters via Zoom but wouldn’t tell them he was in Florida, showing Ohtani the club’s Dunedin complex.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts seemed to break protocol when he admitted that he and his club had recently met with Ohtani. Given the cloak-and-dagger nature of the Ohtani free agency and the lack of real information, it seemed genuinely possible that this would actually have a negative impact on the club’s chances of getting the deal done. There was even more worry when there were reports that Ohtani was on a plane to sign with the Blue Jays, but those eventually proved to be inaccurate. The long-awaited Ohtani-Dodgers pairing finally got done with a massive 10-year, $700M deal.

Or did it? The unicorn player with the bizarre free agency apparently couldn’t sign a normal contract. After news of the deal landed, reports quickly emerged that put the shocking numbers into more context. Despite the $700M price tag, there was some fine print.

Ohtani will actually only make $2M in each season of the deal and then get $68M annually, without interest, in the 10 years following the expiration of the deal. He will still get $700M, but over 20 years instead of 10. Deferred money reduces the present-day value of the deal to $46M annually in the eyes of the league and $43.8M from the perspective of the MLBPA. Even with those caveats, the approximate $460M guarantee is still the largest in MLB history. Even the lower of the two AAV numbers puts Ohtani ahead of Max Scherzer for the largest of all time.

This was perceived by many fans as a way for the club to “dodge” the luxury tax, but MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes argued otherwise at the time. The $46M competitive-balance tax hit the Dodgers will get for Ohtani was in line with most expectations coming into the winter. The $700M number isn’t truly real, but it’s helpful for the agents to describe it that way.

Regardless of the optics, Ohtani reportedly suggested the structure to multiple teams. The Giants and Blue Jays were willing to pay it, just like the Dodgers, but the Angels were not. The appeal from the player’s perspective is obvious. The $2M salary is obviously paltry by baseball standards, but Ohtani won’t be starving as he has millions coming in via endorsements every year. By kicking his payments down the road, he can ensure the club has more resources to put a winning team around him. And the contract reportedly has language that makes sure they use their savings toward making the club as competitive as possible.

They certainly held up their end of the bargain with the remainder of this offseason. As mentioned, the club’s rotation was snakebit last year. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin both had surgery last year and couldn’t be counted on to start 2024 healthy. Walker Buehler’s Tommy John was back in 2022, but he still missed all of 2023 and will be handled with care this year. Lance Lynn, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw all hit free agency after 2023, making starting pitching an obvious priority for the club.

Kershaw had hit free agency twice before and re-signed with the club, but the Dodgers couldn’t rely on the same thing playing out this winter. Kershaw announced in early November that he had undergone shoulder surgery and wouldn’t be able to return until some point this summer. Ohtani wasn’t going to help either, as he underwent some kind of UCL surgery in September and will be limited to hitting only in 2024.

Despite already giving out a record-setting deal, the Dodgers seemed prepared for more, casting a wide net in their search for starting pitching. Throughout the winter, they were connected to high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, mid-range guys like Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Jesús Luzardo.

Their first big rotation strike came via the trade market, as the Dodgers were able to land Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. With Tampa looking to cut payroll, the Dodgers took on both Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot, sending younger players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca the other way.

Glasnow has struggled to stay healthy in his career but has pitched at an ace level when healthy. He overcame a lengthy Tommy John absence in 2023, setting a new career high with 120 major league innings, putting up a 3.53 ERA in the process. The Dodgers were clearly not scared by the past health issues, as the deal they made with the Rays was conditional on getting an extension done with Glasnow, which they eventually did. The combination of this year’s salary and the four they added on means they are committed to him for five years and $136.5M.

But they weren’t done there. The market around Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to get hotter and hotter as the winter nights grew darker. That was a testament not only to his incredible skills but also his age. It’s hard to find an ace in free agency, but it’s almost unheard of to get a 25-year-old ace. He comes with no experience in the big leagues but a 1.82 ERA over his seven NPB seasons and little doubt about his ability to handle the show (rough debut notwithstanding).

Due to that rarity, multiple clubs were willing to go over the $300M mark to land Yamamoto, but the Dodgers ultimately sealed it with a 12-year, $325M deal. But since Yamamoto had been subject to the posting system, the Dodgers will also have to pay a fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball. Such fees are calculated as a percentage of the deal, so a massive deal means massive fees. This contract led to a $51M posting fee for the Buffaloes, meaning the Dodgers were effectively paying $376M to get Yamamoto. Factoring in the club’s luxury-tax status means the outlay is even higher. Even before that posting fee, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher not named Ohtani.

They had one more move to remake their rotation, but it was far more modest than the Glasnow or Yamamoto acquisitions. They signed lefty James Paxton to a one-year deal. It was initially reported an $11M guarantee but was later changed to $7M with incentives. The Dodgers apparently adjusted it down after Paxton’s physical, but they didn’t find anything to scuttle it entirely. Paxton has been oft-injured in recent years, hardly pitching at all from 2020 to 2022, but was able to make 19 starts for the Red Sox last year.

On the position player side of things, the most surprising developments surrounded Mookie Betts. Having spent the vast majority of his career in right field, the Dodgers moved him to the middle infield last year. He came up as a second baseman and had dabbled at that position earlier in his major league career, but the club was evidently impressed enough to make him their everyday guy at the keystone coming into 2024. More on that later.

With Betts moving to the infield, there was room for additions in the outfield. Jason Heyward was re-signed to a one-year deal, but he was effectively replacing himself. He had a nice bounce-back for the Dodgers in 2023, being limited to a strong-side platoon role. The Dodgers were frequently connected to Teoscar Hernandez and were able to get him to sign a one-year deal as well, adding yet another potent bat to their lineup.

With Hernandez and Heyward set to join an outfield mix with James Outman, Margot started to seem a bit unnecessary. He could platoon with Heyward, but they also had Chris Taylor on hand for that. They eventually decided to send Margot to the Twins and use the $4M they saved to sign Enrique Hernandez instead. He can also hit from the right side and play the outfield, but his ability to play the infield gave them a bit of extra cover for Betts and third baseman Max Muncy.

But the position player mix had one more twist to come in spring. The Dodgers planned on having Gavin Lux, who missed all of 2023 due to a knee injury, as their everyday shortstop. But he struggled with some consistency in his throws this spring, an issue he’s had in the past. The Dodgers quickly decided to flip Betts and Lux, a move that Roberts described as “permanent for now.”

This put the Dodgers in the wild position of having committed over a billion dollars this winter (kind of) but somehow ending up with a 31-year-old right fielder as their everyday shortstop. Betts briefly played the position last year, getting into 16 games. That’s already the most ever games at the position for a guy after winning multiple Gold Gloves in the outfield, per Sarah Langs of MLB, highlighting how unprecedented this experiment is.

Many fans grew tired of hearing about the Dodgers this winter, as the club was incredibly active while many others sat on their hands. But the fact is that they were doing so many interesting things that it was hard to look away. No one had ever given a free agent $500M before, let alone $600M or $700M. It turns out the Dodgers didn’t really do any of those either, but the bizarre deferral structure of Ohtani’s deal was itself interesting and unprecedented. They gave the largest guarantee ever to a pitcher that isn’t a two-way player. And they gave it to a guy with no major league experience. They put their MVP candidate right fielder at shortstop.

They did all of that and more, adding multiple bats and arms to a club that has already been a dominant force for over a decade. After getting Ohtani and making all of these other moves, the expectations will be even higher from now on. For the next 10 years, the club has Ohtani on the roster and is only paying him $2M per year, a pittance in this league. All the chips are on the table and anything short of a World Series in that time will be counted by many as a failure.