Royals Could Lose $45 Million All-Star A Year Early In Free Agency, Per Insider

Sometimes, a bargain in Major League Baseball can be almost too good to be true.

The Kansas City Royals signed free-agent starting pitcher Seth Lugo to a three-year, $45 million contract before the 2024 season. On the surface, it was a nice haul for a 34-year-old with only one full season of starting experience under his belt. But Lugo has blown that valuation out of the water with his play.

In 42 starts as a Royal, Lugo has gone 19-13 with a 3.01 ERA. He also leads the American League with 263 1/3 innings pitched over that time frame. He's currently on the injured list, but it's a finger sprain, which is certainly low on the list of long-term concerns when it comes to starting pitcher health.

All of this is shaping up for Lugo to make his exit from Kansas City a year early, unless the Royals are willing to pony up another sizeable contract to keep him around.

On Wednesday, insider Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote that he expects Lugo to exercise the opt-out in his contract and hit free agency this winter, barring a catastrophic finish to the season.

"Lugo spent most of his career as a reliever until 2023," Bowden wrote. "That year he went 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts before signing in free agency with the Royals. He proved it wasn’t a fluke as he made a league-leading 33 starts in 2024, going 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA.

"He won a Gold Glove Award, made his first All-Star team and finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting. He has a 3.02 ERA this season over nine starts. If all goes well, he’d decline his $15 million player option for 2026 and re-enter free agency."

The free-agent pitching market is fairly week this winter, with a pair of San Diego Padres (Dylan Cease and Michael King), Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros as the other headliners.

Though Lugo will be 36 in 2025, he's likely to get a bag from a team that believes it's only a starter or two away from contention. And the bad news for the small-market Royals is that in 2025, that list of teams is longer than ever.

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