Season-defining stretch approaching for the Yankees

Heading down the final stretch, the New York Yankees hold a 71-60 record with a four-and-a-half game cushion for a wild-card spot. 

Sitting in third place in the AL East, a half-game back from the Red Sox and 5.5 games behind the Blue Jays, can the Yankees not only secure a playoff spot, but make a push for the division crown?

Of the 31 games remaining for the Yankees, 19 are being played against teams with a record below .500, including the Washington Nationals (53-78), Minnesota Twins (59-72), Chicago White Sox (48-83) Baltimore Orioles (60-71). 

The Yankees are 41-28 (.594) against such teams so far in 2025. 

That certainly bodes well for the team, but it might be the other 12 remaining games that ultimately determine its fate. Not only are they against teams with a winning record, they're against teams that have dominated the Yankees this season.  

After wrapping up their current series with the Nationals and playing four against the White Sox, the Yankees play the remaining two games against Washington before playing four against the White Sox before embarking on their final, and perhaps decisive, test of the season.

A three-game set in Houston (72-59) kicks it off before the Yankees come home for six games, three against the Toronto Blue Jays (77-55) and three against the Detroit Tigers (78-55). The Yankees then head back on the road to take on the rival Red Sox (72-60). 

In four series, the Yankees play each of the three American League division leaders and all four teams that sit in front of them in the AL standings.

Despite being one of the better teams against opponents with losing records, the Yankees are 30-32 against teams with a winning record. 

If the Yankees make the playoffs, which they are expected to do (93.7 percent chance according to Baseball Reference), those are the teams they are going to face. Of the current teams in the AL Playoffs, the Yankees only have a winning record against the Seattle Mariners (5-1 this year). Against the other four teams, the Yankees are a combined 7-19 (2-8 against Boston, 3-7 against Toronto and 1-2 against both Detroit and Houston).

It's inconsistent play that's hurt them against those teams. In those 26 games, the Yankees have made 23 errors, including five games with multiple errors, and two games with four. Along with the shaky defense, the Yankees have been held to one run or less seven times. 

All season, the Yankees have struggled to find consistency against higher-level teams and in one-run games. Both of those factors are amplified in the playoffs, when every team is good and close games become more common. 

That 12-game stretch is going to be the Yankees' first taste of playoff baseball. They have struggled against these teams all year and it's their chance to right their wrongs before the postseason. 

After that tumultuous stretch, the Yankees finish off with 13 games against teams with a losing record, which should help push them secure a playoff spot. But it's the 12 games before that which will decide whether they enter the postseason as AL East champions or a wild-card team, and, perhaps more importantly, how confident they'll feel about whichever opponent awaits them.

These matchups against the playoff-caliber teams will be the most important of the season.