MLB Network hosts Greg Amsinger, Mark DeRosa and Sean Casey talk to Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson at the Hilton Anatole during the 2024 MLB Winter Meetings. Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Seattle Mariners Given Greater Than 50 Percent Chance to Make Playoffs in 2025, Per Projections

Originally posted on Seattle Mariners on SI
By Brady Farkas | Last updated Feb 3, 2025 12:15 PM ET

The Seattle Mariners have been given a 57.9 percent chance to make the playoffs in 2025, according to the latest projections from the PECOTA model (Baseball Prospectus).

One year after going 85-77 and missing the playoffs by one game, the M's are projected to win approximately 86 games this season. They've been given a 20.7 percent chance to win the division and a 37.2 percent chance to earn a wild card spot.

If Seattle is able to make the playoffs, it will be the first time since 2022. If they are to win the division, it would be the first time since 2001. That's also the last time they advanced past the ALDS.

PECOTA's newest projections for the AL West - a few notes:

- Seeing 'Sacramento'
- Rangers feel high given their bullpen
- #Mariners at 86 wins
- SEA with second lowest Runs Allowed (LAD at 625) pic.twitter.com/LicbnvCIe5
— Jage (@thejagepage) February 3, 2025

All in all, these projections feel reasonably fair for Seattle. The Mariners have done essentially nothing to improve from last season's roster and will be relying on good health and good faith to be better in 2025. Some players are likely to improve from last season, while others are likely to regress, meaning the M's could wind up in the exact same spot at the end of the year.

If the Mariners are going to have a special season, they'll need to get a big year from Julio Rodriguez, who had just 20 homers and 68 RBI in 2024. They'll also need a better year from Jorge Polanco, who hit just .213 as he battled through a knee injury.

Furthermore, they'll need to hope that a full season of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles pays dividends, all while hoping their world-class starting rotation stays healthy.

The Mariners report to spring training in just over one week.

This article first appeared on Seattle Mariners on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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