Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets predictions, picks and odds for 'Sunday Night Baseball'

Mets vs. Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers

Kenny Ducey’s 'Sunday Night Baseball' Preview

New York Mets Betting Preview: Time to Panic?

It seems as if any time the Mets lose consecutive games, fans of this team begin to panic given the trauma they've been through over the years. While we often scoff at the sight of panic, there's definitely some items to be concerned about given the recent play.

New York is now just 15th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and 23rd in the last seven days, and in both splits it is striking out more than 23% of the time in a big reversal of what we've been accustomed to seeing all season long. Its Isolated Power has dipped significantly as well, and walks continue to be hard to come by, though the Mets continue to at least hit above the league average. There's been little difference in terms of the batted ball profile with continued balance between ground balls and fly balls, so it's hard to really pinpoint a reason for this team's rut.

Speaking of slumps, Severino has begun to regress over his past two starts in allowing 10 earned runs across eight frames. The right-hander has had to work at two hitter-friendly parks in Minnesota and Colorado, however, with three home runs doing him in around the 14 hits he's yielded.

Severino continues to be a pitcher very much geared towards ground balls, but his rate of contact on the ground hit a season-low 40.7% in the month of July and continued to fall last go around at Coors Field. The expected stats didn't look all that bad against the Rockies, but he is coming off the worst month of his season in terms of Expected Batting Average (.272) and Expected Slugging (.454).

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Tough Matchup for Seattle's Offense

The song remains the same for the Mariners, who continue to punish the ball directly into the air despite playing at a home park where that's a very bad idea. They remain dead last in baseball with a 27.7% strikeout rate over the course of the season and have punched out in 27.1% of plate appearances in the past two weeks, hitting a measly .211 over that span with a mediocre .152 ISO.

Severino should prove to be a tough matchup for the Mariners, considering they rank 25th in OPS to ground-ball pitchers as opposed to 12th in the reverse split. They've hit roughly the same at .227 and .229, respectively, so it's not even as if we can expect hits to pile up while the power remains rather suppressed.

Castillo, meanwhile, continues to skate by despite diminished velocity on his fastball. After a brief recovery in June, his xBA on the pitch was back up to .219 in July, but the good news is that his strikeout rate came up a hair to 21.8% but remains on a downwards trajectory as he approaches the league average in that category.

That's a big deal when you consider Castillo had been up over 27% for the past two seasons, and has now gone backwards for a second straight year in the xBA category to bring him two points over the league average. Despite an uptick in ground balls this year, we've seen more expected damage on contact against the right-hander and those ground ball numbers have only climbed as the year has gone on.

Mets vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis: Both Teams in a Bad Spot

Neither team is in a particularly great spot on Sunday with the Mets trailing behind in OPS to ground-ball pitchers just as the Mariners do. They sit just 19th against pitchers who aim for contact on the ground versus eighth in the reverse split, hitting just .248. When you factor in some slight improvement in the strikeout department for Castillo and the Mets' issues in plate discipline, the right-hander should have a good opportunity to mow down this team.

I'm also not as concerned with Severino as many may be considering he's had some adverse conditions for pitching over the last couple of outings and had to encounter a red-hot Twins team on the road. The Mariners simply can't hurt Severino like these other teams, lacking that same kind of power and taking a terrible approach for their home park.

It's not exactly a novel concept to back the under at T-Mobile Park, but I'm not really seeing a clear edge for either offense here against two pitchers that, while flawed, have been effective and reliable overall this year.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)