Should Astros Consider Risky Trade for One of Marlins Starting Pitchers?

The Houston Astros have been exploring the starting pitching market with the trade deadline fast approaching. One of the more interesting potential partners is the Miami Marlins.

Even if the Astros were fully healthy, their rotation is lacking that third impact starter for the postseason behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. The rotation becomes even more questionable next year with Valdez heading to free agency.

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Houston should be open to finding an option that has multiple seasons of control remaining.

The Marlins have two specific players who would provide some longer-term term help, but they would also be risky to acquire.

RHP Sandy Alcantara

Entering the year, Alcantara was one of the more exciting trade options. He was finally healthy again after Tommy John surgery and he has the 2022 NL Cy Young Award to his name.

When he has been on, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The problem is that he just hasn't been on for most of this season. Through 20 starts, he has posted a 6.66 ERA with a 1.433 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and a 65 ERA+.

He still has a pretty sizeable market, though, because the stuff is still there and his FIP and expected numbers are much better than what is on paper.

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Perhaps a change of scenery and new pitching staff could help him get back on track.

There is a chance he doesn't return to an elite form, though, which is where the risk comes from. He would be a more expensive version of the solid backend rotation guy the Astros already have in the mix, so there is plenty that needs to be figured out if they want to go down this route.

The 29-year-old is due $17.3 million next season and has a club option for $21 million in 2027.

Given the price it would take to get him from Miami, the risk doesn't seem worth it for Houston.

RHP Edward Cabrera

Cabrera has been a breakout star this year.

He has posted a 3.48 ERA over 17 starts with a 1.239 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 124 ERA+.

The 27-year-old has found something that works with his slider and curveball mix, and the results have been fantastic.

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As of right now, he would be a great addition to the Astros rotation. The issue with him is that he does fit the profile for regression and has had some injury troubles in the past.

Cabrera averaged a 5.1 BB/9 over his first four MLB campaigns. His command is unpredictable, but he has been better this season. His FIP (3.56) and xERA (3.79) are also higher than his actual ERA, which points to him being a bit lucky so far in 2025.

The biggest worry, especially given Houston's injury troubles this year, is his durability. He has never thrown over 100 innings before in his career, but he should break that streak with 88 already thrown this season.

He is under team control through 2028, making him a much more affordable risk than Alcantara.

If the Astros want to target a Marlins starter, Cabrera seems like the option to go with.

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