Should Guardians be favored over Yankees in Game 5 of ALDS?

As of early Monday afternoon, FanDuel Sportsbook had the New York Yankees listed as the betting favorites at -154 to defeat the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium. 

However, Jon Greenberg and Nick Groke of The Athletic pointed out that different numbers suggest the visitors may possess a slight edge in the win-or-go-home contest. 

Per Greenberg and Groke, the road team has won 21 of 32 series-deciding Game 5s since the playoffs expanded in 1995 excluding when contests were played at a neutral site due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Most notably as it pertains to the two clubs battling on Monday evening, the Yankees defeated the then-Cleveland Indians 5-2 in a Game 5 that took place in Cleveland in the fall of 2017. 

"While the Yankees clobbered opposing pitchers at home during the season, they haven’t hit much there this series — small sample size alert — winning the opener 4-1 and, after a rainout in Game 2, losing 4-2 in 10 innings," Greenberg and Groke added. "Their 11 hits in those two games are the fewest for any playoff team that has played multiple home games." 

Both clubs will likely embrace bullpen games on Monday. The Athletic's Zack Meisel and Greg Joyce of the New York Post noted that Cleveland's Aaron Civale and New York's Jameson Taillon will start the pivotal matchup for their teams.

"I said, 'Man, you go pitch your heart out. Don’t you worry about when we take you out. Just keep pitching until we take you out,'" Guardians manager Terry Francona said about advice he offered Civale. "He seems like he’s in a good place." 

The winner of Monday's game will face the Houston Astros in the AL Championship Series set to begin at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday night.