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Should the Blue Jays make a change at closer?

Originally posted on Bluejaysnation | By Josh Goldberg | Last updated Aug 12, 2025 5:30 PM ET

Jeff Hoffman’s first season with the Toronto Blue Jays has certainly been eventful. The veteran right-hander has been brilliant at times and disastrous at others.

Hoffman is inside the top 10 among all MLB closers in saves but owns a 4.50 ERA with five blown saves. His most recent outing was a spectacular disaster, as he gave up the lead twice while walking five hitters against the Dodgers. It’s fair to wonder if seven days between appearances contributed to Hoffman’s struggles in Los Angeles.

Hoffman had been pitching relatively well before his blowup against Los Angeles, registering a 2.86 ERA with 11.45 K/9 and less than two walks per nine innings over his previous 24 appearances. The veteran right-hander is more than capable of getting the job done in big spots. He’s proven it. The Blue Jays just have to ask themselves how prepared they are to live with the possibility of a bump in the road at an inopportune moment down the stretch of the regular season or in the playoffs.

Hoffman’s 2024 postseason struggles as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies could also be a point of consideration if the Blue Jays ultimately decide to make a change to his role. He allowed six earned runs on three hits and two walks in just 1 1/3 innings in Philadelphia’s disappointing NLDS loss against the New York Mets.

Hoffman’s propensity to give up home runs has been a sore spot in 2025. The 32-year-old has allowed more home runs this year (10) than the previous two seasons combined (nine). His barrel rate allowed has nearly doubled from 7.6% in 2024 to 13.8% this season.

On performance alone, there’s certainly an argument to be made for bumping Hoffman out of the closer’s spot. The real issue is determining who the best alternative is. Realistically, there are probably two other options that Blue Jays manager John Schneider could turn to instead of Hoffman.

Seranthony Domínguez

With Yimi García still sidelined due to an elbow injury, Domínguez is the reliever with the most experience and has closed games in the past. The 30-year-old saved 16 games in 20 opportunities as a rookie with the Phillies in 2018. Overall, Domínguez has 40 saves over parts of seven seasons.

Seranthony Domínguez's 2Ks in the 8th pic.twitter.com/nPm89LKmTm

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 30, 2025

The biggest concern with the potential of turning the ninth inning over to Domínguez is his inconsistent ability to command the strike zone. Domínguez has walked 28 batters in just 46 1/3 innings this season. His career BB/9 is 3.95. Too many free passes are almost always the undoing of a closer’s ability to withstand the pressure of pitching with the game on the line in the ninth inning.

The biggest thing working in Domínguez’s favour is his ability to miss bats at a strong rate. He has fanned 61 batters in 2025 and owns a lifetime 10.63 K/9 rate. Domínguez has two pitches that could be used to finish hitters with two strikes. Both of his sweeper and split finger have a whiff rate above 50%. In terms of pure stuff, Domínguez has what it takes to succeed in the ninth inning. The Blue Jays would have to weigh whether his 20 career blown saves and inconsistent command would be worth making a move away from Hoffman.

Louis Varland

Varland is the popular choice to replace Hoffman among Blue Jays fans. The right-hander moved into a full-time relief role this season and has been excellent. Varland has a 1.98 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 8.73 K/9, and 2.47 BB/9 across 56 appearances and 54 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins. He’s increased his average fastball velocity almost two miles per hour and sits 19th among all MLB relievers with a 54.8% ground ball rate.

Louis Varland hits triple digits on the fastball to strike out Shohei Ohtani

: Blue Jays Dodgers on Sportsnet pic.twitter.com/NTzqaQgyIE

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 10, 2025

Varland has allowed just three home runs this season and has held opposing batters to a .212/.293/.258 slash line (.551 OPS) in 66 at-bats during high-leverage situations. On the surface, Varland looks more than capable of effectively transitioning to the demanding nature of pitching in the ninth inning.

However, there are some potential red flags when trying to forecast what Varland closing games might look like. First and foremost, he has zero career saves. Parachuting a first-year reliever who’s never nailed down a save into the ninth inning during the stretch run of a pennant race might be a lot to ask.

Varland’s modest strikeout rate could also be an issue. He’s fanned just under a batter per inning this season. Those numbers aren’t disastrous by any means, but the ability to rack up strikeouts in the ninth inning always makes a closer’s life easier. Relying on pitching to contact and inducing ground balls brings more potentially negative outcomes into play.

Sticking with Hoffman

This still feels like the most realistic outcome. Hoffman is far from a perfect closer, but has shown he’s capable of prolonged stretches of quality performance. If Hoffman can just find a way to keep the ball from going over the fence, the rest of his repertoire looks good enough to get the job done. Even if the Blue Jays ultimately decide against making a change, there’s no doubt Hoffman’s leash in the ninth inning has gotten shorter.

This article first appeared on Bluejaysnation and was syndicated with permission.

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