Should the Cubs Trade or Extend Nico Hoerner?

Lots of Hoerner’s success last season came with runners in scoring position. In 2024, the Cubs ranked just 21st in batting average with RISP, and Hoerner was a part of those struggles with a .245/.313/.364 line.

But in 2025, he transformed into the team’s most reliable option in clutch situations, posting a .371/.424/.457 slash line with runners on second or third. In large part as a result of this improvement, the Cubs’ offense moved to fifth in MLB with RISP.

So with how vital Hoerner was to the Cubbies’ success, why in the world would the Cubs want to consider trading him?

Unfortunately, what lies ahead for Major League Baseball greatly complicates his future.

The Looming 2026 Lockout

Hoerner is entering his contract year. He is currently signed to a three-year, $35 million deal, which is very good value for how good he has been. Under his current contract, he has compiled more fWAR than Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers and Manny Machado, who each have contracts worth over $300 million.

So, Hoerner is almost certainly due for a pay raise following 2026, where he is set to make $12 million. However, there is a looming threat that may impact his big payday.

The threat of a lockout in December 2026 impacting the 2027 season grows more likely as the days go by. MLB owners are expected to push hard for a salary cap to be implemented, and the MLB Players Association strongly opposes this.

As a result, teams are tentative to make any long-term commitments to players. The Cubs, for example, have no players signed to guaranteed contracts beyond the 2026 season besides Dansby Swanson and newly-acquired Phil Maton.

Because of the economic uncertainty of a possible salary cap, the Cubs may not want to sign anyone to a large contract and put themselves in a precarious money situation.

Hoerner’s Expected Contract

So, what kind of contract will Hoerner be looking for when he hits the open market?

Ketel Marte is pretty widely regarded as the best second baseman in MLB. In April 2025, he signed a six-year, $115 million contract through 2030 with a player option for 2031.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has one more year of arbitration before he hits free agency in 2027. Given that he’ll be 30 years old and considering the production he’s put together recently, it’s fair to assume he’ll warrant a multi-year deal worth upwards of $100 million when the time comes.

The difference between these two and Hoerner is they are both primarily offensive weapons. Marte has hit 89 home runs since 2023, and Chisholm has hit 74. In 2025, Marte had a 145 wRC+ and Chisholm had a 126 wRC+. For comparison, Hoerner only had a 109 wRC+. 

However, Hoerner makes up for his lack of pop with a high batting average, a low strikeout rate, the ability to steal bases, and fantastic fielding that has earned him two Gold Gloves. Neither Marte nor Chisholm even has one on their résumé.

For the sake of this argument, let’s say Hoerner will be recieving a contract comparable to those two players, somewhere in the five to seven-year range with an AAV of around $18-$20 million.

After 2025, his value is the highest that it has ever been. If the Cubs are not willing to pay Hoerner that price tag, especially with the CBA expiring and a lockout looming, the best course of action could be to trade him.

That said, this is a Cubs team that is looking to compete for a World Series title in 2026, and subtracting him from the equation — especially after the expected departure of superstar Kyle Tucker — would not bode well for their outlook ahead.

From a business perspective, it would make sense to capitalize while his stock is greatest this winter. But for a team gearing up to get back to the postseason, is that a move they can rationalize to the Cubs faithful? It would be a hard sell in what is going to be a very important offseason for the future of this team.

What Should They Do?

Hoerner is undoubtedly one of MLB’s best second basemen. Logic says that the Cubs should give him the money he deserves. He’s the second-longest tenured player on the North Side, and he is loved by the fans.

It is hard to imagine that the Cubs would trade a player that means as much to the organization as Hoerner. However, if they won’t pay him, letting him walk for nothing is not a smart move.

With the expiring CBA, a potential lockout looming over next offseason, and the possibility of the salary cap affecting how teams approach their payroll, the Cubs have an important decision to make with Hoerner. Whether the plan is to trade him, extend him, or simply let his contract run its course, this decision will impact the organization for years to come.