Should the Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

A Season of Consistency on a Struggling Team

Mitch Keller, the 29-year-old right-hander, took the mound 32 times for the Pirates in 2025, serving as a model of durability on a team that finished last in the National League Central with a 71-91 record. While his win-loss record of 6-15 reflects the team's overall offensive struggles, his underlying performance tells a more complex story of a reliable innings-eater.

Over 176 1/3 innings pitched, Keller posted a 4.19 ERA with 150 strikeouts and a 1.26 WHIP. His season was a tapestry of typical mid-rotation performance — lacking the dominance of an ace but providing a steadying presence every fifth day.

July was easily the best month of the season for Keller, pitching to a 2.93 ERA in five games started. After a miserable August (6.52 ERA), Keller finished strong, logging a 3.98 ERA over his last four starts of the season.

Mitch Keller's 2025 Month-by-Month Performance

Keller's true value, however, might be measured not in single-game stats but in his cumulative workload. Over the past three seasons, he has made 95 starts, tying him for the fifth-most in all of Major League Baseball during that span. In an era where pitching injuries are rampant and complete games are rare, his ability to consistently take the ball is a significant asset.

The Case for a Trade: Freeing Resources for a Weak Offense

The argument for trading Keller this winter is compelling and stems from a clear-eyed assessment of the Pirates' roster construction.

The Pirates' offense was not just bad in 2025; it was historically anemic. The team ranked last in the majors in runs scored (583), home runs (117), and slugging percentage. This created a glaring imbalance, as the pitching staff, particularly the young starters, emerged as a position of strength.

Keller is owed $16.5 million in 2026, with three years and $54.5 million total remaining on his contract. For a Pirates organization that carefully manages its payroll, that represents a substantial chunk of resources that could be reallocated. Trading him would free up capital to pursue multiple offensive upgrades through free agency, or allow the team to absorb the salary of a proven MLB bat in a separate trade.

Additonally, the free-agent market for starting pitchers this offseason is notably thin, with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez leading a limited class. This scarcity makes a controllable, proven innings-eater like Keller a valuable commodity. The Pirates could leverage this demand to acquire a much-needed impact hitter.

The Case to Stay: The Veteran Anchor for a Young Staff

Despite the logical arguments for a trade, there is an equally strong case for the Pirates to retain Keller, centered on stability and leadership.

The Pirates' young pitching corps is the envy of many teams, headlined by potential ace Paul Skenes and including promising arms like Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Johan Oviedo. However, this youth comes with uncertainty.

Jared Jones is returning from a significant elbow procedure, while Chandler and Ashcraft are still building up their innings limits after setting career highs in 2025. Keller’s 176+ innings in 2025 provide a reliable foundation that mitigates the inherent risks of relying on a young, developing rotation.

Beyond the statistics, Keller's role as a veteran leader is intangible yet critical. He is the second-longest-tenured player on the roster behind Bryan Reynolds and has been a part of the organization's fabric for years. For a young clubhouse, his work ethic and consistency set a daily example. This leadership factor is something the organization values highly as it tries to cultivate a winning culture.

Ultimately, the question is one of value. Is Keller more valuable to the 2026 Pirates as a known quantity providing 180+ steady innings, or as a trade chip that brings back the offensive firepower the team so desperately lacks? The Pirates were unwilling to deal him at the 2025 trade deadline because other teams did not meet their high asking price, signaling they will not part with him simply to shed salary.

As the offseason begins, Mitch Keller finds himself at the center of the Pirates' defining dilemma. His 2025 season proved his durability, and his contract makes him both a financial consideration for Pittsburgh and an attractive target for contenders. The path the Pirates choose next will send a clear signal about their strategy to end their playoff drought.