Sizing up the American League Contenders

Yes, the Mariners have stumbled on this long East Coast road trip, dropping a series to Baltimore and New York before running into Philadelphia. But zoom out, and Seattle looks like the most complete team in the American League.

The lineup has balance, depth and postseason experience. Julio Rodríguez hasn’t quite exploded offensively, but he’s a 5-WAR player who could reach his second 30/30 season in four years. Randy Arozarena (remember his 2020 October tear?) is also tracking toward 30/30 himself. Add in Cal Raleigh, who leads baseball in homers and is second in RBIs, plus steady veterans like J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suárez, and this group can score runs in a lot of different ways.

The rotation is elite. Bryan Woo just became the first pitcher since Clayton Kershaw in 2019 to open a season with 23 straight outings of six or more innings. Luis Castillo’s changeup remains filthy, Logan Gilbert is a horse, and George Kirby can paint the zone. Depth guys like Logan Evans, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock make this staff the envy of the league.

The bullpen is just as loaded: Andrés Muñoz is a shutdown closer, Eduard Bazardo and Carlos Vargas handle leverage, and Matt Brash’s return from injury adds another wipeout arm. Deadline pickup Caleb Ferguson gives manager Scott Servais a second reliable lefty alongside Gabe Speier.

This roster checks every box: stars, balance, depth, and October-tested arms. Seattle’s never been to the World Series. This might be the year that changes.

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees’ case is simple: they have Aaron Judge. That’s a massive head start on everyone else. Judge is running away with most statistical categories, and he’s surrounded by a mix of proven veterans and hungry young players.

Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. bring postseason pedigrees and star power. Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, and Ben Rice give this lineup youthful punch. Even the depth — Trent Grisham, Ryan McMahon, José Caballero — is battle-tested.

The staff is trickier. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón form a formidable 1-2 punch, but beyond them, it’s shaky. The bullpen has talent: Devin Williams, David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Mark Leiter Jr., but has lacked consistency. If they all click at the right time, this group could be devastating.

The Yankees boast the best run differential in the AL and the most raw talent. The big concern is the defense, which was quite evident in the deciding game of the 2024 World Series. Aside from the defensive woes and the pitching questions, the Yankees have the most dangerous lineup when hot.

They might not win their division, but they remain a threat to represent the league in the Fall Classic.

3. Detroit Tigers

Detroit was ahead of schedule last year, stealing a wild-card series in Houston before bowing out to Cleveland. That taste of October mattered. Now, this group feels poised for another step forward.

Tarik Skubal is a legitimate ace and is poised to make it two AL Cy Youngs in a row. Casey Mize has been steady, and Jack Flaherty brings championship experience from his Dodgers run. The bullpen is deep, and manager A.J. Hinch has proven he knows how to maximize matchups.

The question is the lineup. Kerry Carpenter is the best bat, but he only hits against right-handed pitching. Riley Greene is the most steady, but he’s still so young. Spencer Torkelson still swings and misses too much. Colt Keith, Wenceel Perez and vet Javier Báez will need to deliver in October.

The Tigers may still be one year away from a true World Series push, but they look like an ALCS-caliber team in 2025.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have the most playoff-tested rotation in the AL. Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber (if healthy), and Eric Lauer is a nasty October group. That alone makes them dangerous.

Offensively, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anchor the lineup, while a resurgent George Springer adds punch and playoff experience. But outside of that trio, there’s a lot of variance. Can Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider deliver big October hits? That remains a question.

The bullpen doesn’t inspire much trust either, ranking middle of the pack in ERA with few proven postseason arms. Toronto has the frontline starters to scare anyone in a short series, but the lack of depth and offensive thump keeps them behind Seattle, New York, and Detroit.

5. Boston Red Sox

Trading Rafael Devers looked like a white flag. Instead, Boston’s young core has surged. Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu have brought energy, while Alex Bregman has been the stud, and Trevor Story has been healthy, providing veteran steadiness.

The rotation is surprisingly strong: Garrett Crochet is the Cy Young-caliber ace, Brayan Bello has taken a step forward, and Lucas Giolito has been steady. Walker Buehler has struggled, but his October track record makes him a wild card worth betting on.

The problem? This offense may not slug enough to survive deep into October. The youth movement is exciting, but it feels a year early.

6. Houston Astros

For nearly a decade, the Astros were inevitable in October. Not anymore.

Yes, Carlos Correa’s return has sparked the lineup, and Yordan Álvarez is on the mend. But without Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman, the offense lacks consistent thunder. The rotation is shaky beyond Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. The bullpen has pieces, but Josh Hader will need to be healthy in October for it to shake out the right way.

The Astros still have Altuve, Correa, Jeremy Peña, and enough playoff scars to be dangerous in a series. But this roster feels thinner than in years past, and banking on Álvarez to be at peak form by October is risky.

All stats were taken prior to play on August 19.