Slumping D-backs Lineup Gets Another Tough Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals square off for game two of a three game series at Busch Stadium on Saturday. First pitch is 11:15 a.m. MST, 1:15 p.m. CST. Right-hander Merrill Kelly (5-2, 3.26 ERA) faces lefty Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 2.92 ERA) in what shapes up to be another low scoring affair. The Cardinals took game one by a score of 4-3 as Miles Mikolas bested Zac Gallen.

Professional athletes live in a "what have you done for me lately" kind of world. That seems to be especially true when it comes to discussing the D-backs offense. Over their last five games they've scored just 17 runs, an average of 3.4 per game. 14 of those 17 runs have scored via the home run, while the team has struggled with situational hitting outside of the homers. Nine of the 17 runs came in one game against the Dodgers, and they've scored just eight in the other five games.

When a good hitting team gets into a funk like this at the plate, whether it's of their own doing, or due to facing an inordinate amount of good pitching, it's easy to forget just how good the offense has been. Telescoping out to take a less narrow view of the offense reminds us this team can hit.

Through 51 games Arizona has averaged 5.08 runs per game. That's the fifth highest in MLB, and third best in the National League behind only the Cubs (6.0) and Dodgers (5.71). The team's .780 OPS and 115 OPS+ rank fourth best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks record is just 26-25 despite that offensive prowess, due mostly to the fact that the pitching staff has allowed nearly an equal number of runs. Arizona has given up 5.02 runs per game and has a 4.64 ERA, both of which rank 24th in MLB.

Some may feel the offense is too feast or famine, but compared to other major league offenses, that simply isn't true. For example Arizona has scored three runs or fewer 18 times. That's tied for the fourth fewest such games in MLB. Only the Yankees (16 times) Cubs (17 times) and Tigers (17 times) have fewer games scoring three runs or less.

But the Diamondbacks have a 4-14 record in those games, for a .222 win percentage. That win percentage in games with three runs or fewer is exactly league average and ranks 17 out of 30. This ties directly back to their pitching staff. The Phillies are 8-11 (.421) when scoring three or less and the Dodgers are 7-11 (.389).

Saturday's Pitching Matchup

Kelly has been one of the best pitchers in the National League in 2025. He had one bad outing his second start of the year against the Yankees in which he gave up nine runs. In his other nine starts he's thrown 54.1 innings and allowed only 12 earned runs, for a 1.99 ERA. He's 4-1 in his last eight starts, the only loss coming in a quality start. On May 18 he pitched seven shutout innings, striking out 11 Rockies in a 1-0 victory.

Liberatore has been on an equally impressive run. After giving up eight earned runs in his first two starts, he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his subsequent seven outings. He was a tough luck loser in his last start against the Royals, giving up one run in six excellent innings in a game St. Louis lost 2-1.

The lefty was converted to full time starting this year, and has seen a big change in his platoon splits. In his first three seasons in MLB right hand batters hit .292/.368/.510 against him. In 2025 however that has been completely turned around. They're hitting just .232/.252/.335

Liberatore is using a six-pitch mix, utilizing two fastballs, a slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. He gets most of his swings and misses with the slider and curveball, but the change has been extremely effective as well, as batters have just two hits in 21 at-bats (.095 average) off the pitch all year.

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