Yardbarker
x
Smoke and Mirrors of Astros Pitching Staff Starting To Get Exposed
Jul 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (19) looks on from the dugout during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

It's hard to say there was a more surprising result in the first half of the season than what the Houston Astros accomplished heading into the All-Star break.

Already doubted coming into the year based on who they lost in the offseason, an injury to Yordan Alvarez during the early part of the campaign would have been seen as a death sentence, let alone losing more pitchers to injuries.

Yet, they overcame that reality, even surviving an injury to Jeremy Pena in the midst of a resurgent year to enter the Midsummer Classic with a healthy lead in the AL West.

More News: Astros Place Isaac Paredes on Injured List, Bring Back Two Familiar Faces

How the Astros have been able to perform this way might be surprising, but it's no secret.

Houston is second in batting average and top 10 in wRC+, getting runners constantly on the base paths with the ability to drive them home. They combine that with two aces at the top of their starting rotation and a bullpen with the third-best ERA in baseball to rack up wins.

It's a formula the Astros have been doing for the better part of a decade.

However, there are some smoke and mirrors going on in Houston when it comes to their starting rotation, a magic trick that seems like it's on the verge of being figured out.

More News: Astros Star Luis Garcia Steady in Latest Injury Rehab Start in Minors

"Houston's run prevention machine has broken down in July ... Only 10 pitching staffs have a higher ERA this month than the Astros' 4.52 mark. Houston's starters have a 5.42 ERA in July. Only five rotations awoke Sunday with a higher one this month," wrote Chandler Rome of The Athletic (subscription required).

Much of that has to do with who's behind Brown and Valdez.

While those two each have fWAR marks at 3.0 or higher, the other three starters in the rotation -- Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter and Lance McCullers Jr. -- only have a combined fWAR of 1.0, with McCullers' figure being at minus-0.2.

As a result, the bullpen has been forced to be used more often when Brown and Valdez aren't starting.

While Walter has averaged just shy of six innings per outing in his eight starts, Gordan has barely gone over fiving innings per outing in his 10 starts with McCullers only reaching four innings per outing in his 11 starts.

That's a recipe for disaster, and the cracks in their foundation are starting to become apparent.

It's nobody's fault, either.

More News: Pair of Injured Astros Starters Shine in Rehab Starts in Minor Leagues

Gordon and Walter were relatively unknown coming into the season, and nobody expected them to be rotational pieces for the Astros this year. McCullers has made his way back to the Major League mound for the first time since the 2022 World Series, so there's plenty of rust to knock off. And the elbow injuries and subsequent surgeries to Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are just unfortunate, let alone the freak accident that broke the thumb of Spencer Arrighetti.

The fact Houston has won as much as they have is a testament to this organization and the players who are on the field, finding ways to win games no matter who is or isn't available.

But with the final stretch of the season on the horizon, it's clear the formula needs some finetuning.

Adding another starter would be ideal, giving the Astros an additional arm who can be a valuable piece of this rotation behind Brown and Valdez to save the bullpen as much as possible for when the games mean everything in October.

For more Astros news, head over to Astros On SI.


This article first appeared on Houston Astros on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!