Somehow Tarik Skubal Is Getting Even Better

How good has he been since then? He has only allowed 12 runs in his last nine starts — that’s a 1.86 ERA. He has held hitters to a .186 batting average over that span.

Now with 92 strikeouts on the season, in just 68 2/3 innings, Skubal’s 12.06 K/9 leads the AL and trails only the Washington Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore.

As if that’s not incredible enough, he isn’t walking anybody either, with just seven free passes for an almost invisible 0.92 BB/9. That easily leads all qualified MLB starters. So does his 13.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and by a lot (for reference, Minnesota’s Joe Ryan is second with 9.71 K/BB).

Tarik Skubal Just Cemented Himself as MLB’s Best Starter

His most recent start was the most impressive yet. His final pitch to record his 13th strikeout during his complete-game shutout against the Cleveland Guardians on May 25 wasn’t just any pitch. It was his 94th pitch of the day, and it was tracked at 102.6 mph.

No, don’t refresh your screen. Neither of those numbers are typos.

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, Skubal’s final pitch was the fastest strikeout pitch thrown by a MLB starter since pitch tracking began in 2008. It was also the fastest from a starting pitcher in the ninth inning or later.

Skubal’s dominance over the Guardians was utterly silly and resulted in a “Maddux.” Complete-game shutouts are a rare occurrence these days (there were 26 complete games and just 16 shutouts last season). Doing it in under 100 pitches? That sounds insane in this era of baseball.

With the quality of his stuff, it’s shocking that Skubal hadn’t thrown a complete game before this week. It certainly won’t be surprising to see him throw more this season and over the course of his career.

“When he’s got full intensity and full throttle, the sky’s the limit,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said after the game, per Beck.

And that’s where we are with Skubal now. He’s soaring.

So how has the former ninth-round draft pick improved on what was a fantastic 2024 season? Let’s break it down.

Skubal’s Already Good Stuff Has Gotten Even Better

Skubal’s Statcast sliders are an impressive sea of red. He ranks in the top five percent of the league in most pitching metrics.

As Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com points out, Skubal’s four-seamer is even nastier this season. In fact, he’s throwing both of his fastball offerings harder, and they’re generating more swing-and-miss. His whiff rate on the four-seamer has increased from 27.7% to 32% while his sinker has jumped from 16% to 25%.

He’s tossing — and I use that term loosely — both heaters at a career-high average of 97.7 mph.

Skubal is actually using his disgusting changeup more than his fastball, however. Up from 27.1% last year to 32.1% percent of the time this year, it’s his most used pitch. When you see it, it’s easy to understand why he likes it so much.

How is anyone supposed to hit that? Well, they don’t.

His 50% whiff rate with the changeup is the second-highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 200 of them this season. He’s barely behind teammate Reese Olson, who leads the way at a 50.5% clip. Skubal does lead the majors with a 47.7% strikeout rate on the off-speed offering.

What’s Next for Tarik Skubal?

Where does Skubal go from here after throwing the best game of his career? Now 11 starts in, the Tigers’ ace is already one third of the way through his season.

While his 2.52 xERA indicates that his 2.49 ERA is right about where he should be, he did outperform his expected ERA during last year’s Cy Young campaign (2.72 xERA/2.39 ERA). So you can definitely see Skubal gradually lowering that number.

Not to mention the more predictive xFIP and SIERA, which stand at 2.15 and 2.07 on the year, respectively. Lo and behold, those marks both lead the majors among qualified starters.

With roughly 21 starts remaining, barring injury, there’s every indication that this is the version of Skubal that we’ll see the rest of the way. Tigers fans, and baseball fans who appreciate watching the best-of-the-best dominate their craft, are in for a treat.