Statistics don't tell the whole story of Mike Trout's season

On the surface, Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is off to a disappointing start to the season.

Trout has produced an uncharacteristic .173/.261/.462 batting line in 119 plate appearances (PA) entering Wednesday, hitting nine homers. Moreover, he is striking out in 30.3% of his PAs, the worst mark of his major league career. Although Trout is just 33, his injury history appears to have taken its toll.

In Trout's case, his statistics do not tell the whole story. He is driving the ball when he makes contact with a 47.1% hard-hit rate and a 90.9 mph average exit velocity. He's also consistently barreling the ball, doing so 17.6% of the time he makes contact.

A look at Trout's Statcast page shows consistently above-average metrics regarding his contact and bat speed. He has an expected .252/.308/.594 batting line; while that performance would not match his peak, it would be commendable production in the Angels' lineup. Trout ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate (93rd percentile), sweet spot percentage (44.1% - 94th percentile) and expected slugging percentage (95th percentile).

The issue with Trout at the start of the season has been his plate discipline. He has a 25.5% chase rate and a 30.1% whiff rate (23rd percentile). While Trout has more swing and misses in his profile as he has gotten older, he has displayed excellent command of the strike zone. Trout had a 19.7% chase rate in 2023 (92nd percentile) and an 18.6% chase rate in 2024 (did not qualify but was comparable to Mets outfielder Juan Soto).

Every player goes through slumps, and Trout is no different. His current struggles are magnified due to the small sample size at the start of the year. Trout may not be the player he used to be, but he is still capable of carrying a lineup. It's only a matter of time before his performance catches up to his metrics.