Superstar Shortstop Projected As Baltimore Orioles Top Player for Upcoming Season

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson ascended to the MVP candidate tier of American League stars in 2024, and he looks poised to cement his status there in 2025.

According to Fangraphs data, including Steamer and ZiPs projection systems and a projection of playing time by their staff, Henderson is projected to put up 6.7 wins above replacement in this coming campaign.

"Building on his AL Rookie of the Year Award-winning season in 2023, Henderson made across-the-board improvements last year, slashing .281/.364/.529 with 37 homers, 21 steals, a 155 wRC+ and 8.0 WAR," Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com wrote. "Looking ahead to 2025, the 23-year-old has the third-highest projected WAR among position players behind Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., to go with 31 homers, 17 steals and a 147 wRC+."

Henderson's performance in 2024 would have been good enough to make him a surefire MVP winner in most seasons, but the American League was full of phenomenal individual performances. That left Henderson outside the MVP picture entirely, as he did not receive enough votes to be a finalist, with Judge, Witt. Jr. and Juan Soto going first, second and third.

This was despite Henderson finishing with considerably more WAR than Soto (9.1 to 7.9), according Baseball Reference's calculations of the metric.

While the Fangraphs projections represent a regression from last season, that is reflective of the conservative nature of any projection model. The important thing to note is that Henderson has compiled enough positive data to rank only behind Judge and Witt Jr. in the AL in projected WAR, meaning that he's locked in as one of the most elite players in the sport.

Among his peers at the position, Henderson is one of the most complete offensive threats in the game. Only Mookie Betts drew walks at a higher clip in 2024, and only Witt Jr. hit for a higher slugging percentage, with the Baltimore star beating out established dominant hitters like Corey Seager, Betts, Francisco Lindor, Willy Adames and Elly de la Cruz in the metric.

Henderson looks poised to serve in the leadoff role in a loaded Orioles lineup in 2025, and he'll look to set the table for the team's other dominant batters in Adley Rutschman and Ryan O'Hearn.

The performance and health of the 23-year-old shortstop are perhaps the most crucial factors in Baltimore's offensive outlook this year, as if he does regress or miss time, the club's lineup goes from a fearsome and deep group with an alpha at the top to a group of mostly solid-to-good hitters without a tone-setter to lead the way.

If the team hopes to improve upon its win-loss record and playoff results from a year ago, Henderson will need to at least live up to this projection, if not match last year's output.

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