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Sometimes help can arrive a little past when it is needed. That is more than likely the case taking place in Arlington with the Texas Rangers. The defending World Series champions have struggled all season but are set to get two of their top pitchers off the IL soon. Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom are chomping at the bit to get in the fight.
Heading into a key matchup against the Astros on Monday night, the Rangers found themselves 4.5 games behind Houston and 5.5 games behind the AL West leading Mariners. That doesn’t sound all that bad until a quick check of the calendar reveals that it is already the first part of August. Counting Monday’s contest, the Rangers only have 50 games remaining in the regular season.
In a piece that I put together here at Just Baseball before the season started, I took a look into the challenges of repeating as champions. Not only that, but how difficult it is for a team to even make the playoffs the year after winning it all.
This 2024 season has proven to be arduous thus far.
Tyler Mahle to Make Rangers Debut vs Astros
One bright spot is that Mahle is the probable starter for Tuesday night’s game versus the Astros. This will be his first start in a Rangers’ uniform. Mahle signed a two-year $22 million contract this past offseason.
The signing seemed like a brilliant move by GM Chris Young at the time. Mahle, who was already recovering from Tommy John surgery, was going to miss the first four or so months of the season. The idea was that he would be a “trade deadline acquisition” of sorts that wouldn’t cost the team any of their farm system.
Not only that, but he would also be part of the full rotation come 2025. While that was a great plan, the fact that the Rangers have struggled to win game this season makes Mahle’s return a little anticlimactic.
Not to mention the fact that Mahle isn’t an ace. He is a solid big-league pitcher, but not someone that a team can mark down a ‘W’ just about every time that they take the mound. In seven seasons he is 33-41, has a 4.30 ERA, a 4.27 FIP, and a 1.304 WHIP.
Jacob deGrom on Track for Early September Return
On Monday, Young on spoke on 105.3FM The Fan and discussed all things, Rangers. One topic that was talked about was the impending return of deGrom. Like Mahle, he has been rehabbing from his own Tommy John surgery.
deGrom’s return to big league action is a little behind that of Mahle’s but is right on track with what was expected. He has been throwing bullpens and looking great. This week sometime he is supposed to face hitters for the first time in a simulated game.
Pictured: Jacob deGrom throwing what is expected to be his last bullpen before he begins to face hitters.
— Shawn McFarland (@McFarland_Shawn) August 3, 2024
(video courtesy of the international space station) pic.twitter.com/wjX97UDbQw
And after some rehab starts, if everything goes well, deGrom should be back in Arlington with the Rangers at the very beginning of September. With him being signed to three more seasons (and a possible fourth because of a $20 million club option) after this one, the club will not risk rushing him back in any form or fashion.
Needle movers are hard to find in baseball, but deGrom is one of those guys. He can dominate a game as well as anyone. The question this year is, will he make any meaningful starts for the Rangers, or will they already be out of contention when he steps on the mound?
Grim Reality for Texas Rangers
Before my fellow Rangers fans yell at me about throwing in the towel, let’s take a look at the reality of the current situation. As stated earlier, after this weekend, the Rangers had 50 games left. Their current record is 54-59. Yes, that is five games under .500 and the team also has a depressing -19 run differential.
Last season with 50 games to go this Rangers team was 66-46 with a whopping +170 run differential. The 2023 Rangers struggled to finish strong by only going 24-26 down the stretch to finish the season as an AL wild card team.
Fangraphs has the Rangers playoff odds at 6.5%. Not great, but realistic. They actually predict that the team will end up with 79 wins which would mean that they had gone 26-24 over the final 50 games. They have both Seattle and Houston getting to 85 wins and give the Mariners a slight edge on winning the AL West.
Let’s just say that the Rangers did manage to get to the 85-win total. Is that even possible? It would take the team posting an obscene 32-18 record (.640 winning percentage) to finish out the 2024 season.
Heading into Monday’s play there was only one MLB team with a winning percentage over .600. That distinction belonged to the Cleveland Guardians at .604.
Slightest of Chances Remain
Mathematically the Texas Rangers are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. There is a chance, even though it feels very much like Dumb and Dumber odds. “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
Here is the skinny. Last season the Rangers started off 2023 with a 35-20 record in March, April, and May. That is a .636 winning percentage. If this 2024 version of the Rangers could replicate that percentage, with some rounding it would get them to 85 wins.
During that two-month period last year the Rangers won 13 series (three sweeps), lost four (swept once), and split a two gamer against the Diamondbacks. In order for Texas to have any chance at the postseason they have to pile up the wins and win series.
The longest winning streak (three times) and losing streak (once) was only four games. This team doesn’t have to go on a 10-game winning streak. Although it would surely help. But they will have to two step their way to finish line. Two steps forward and only one step back.
Texas wraps up their season series with the Astros this week. They still have seven games against Seattle slated for mid-September. The Ranges are getting Mahle and deGrom back. Now, whether it is too late or not is yet to be seen.
Rangers fans are going to get to watch some good baseball one way or the other. And if they do catch fire as a team and stay in the AL West race, it will make for an exciting end of the summer.
More must-reads:
- All signs point to Yankees moving on from Anthony Volpe
- Injured Phillies pitcher takes big step toward return
- The 'MLB mascot names' quiz
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TODAY'S BEST
Yankees manager provides major update on Aaron Judge's injury
New York Yankees star Aaron Judge missed Saturday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies with an elbow injury, and the slugger is now headed to the injured list. The Yankees fell 9-4 to the Phillies on Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., which marked their third consecutive loss. Judge played in Friday night's 12-5 loss to Philadelphia, but Aaron Boone announced before Saturday's game that Judge was dealing with an "elbow issue" and would sit out. Following his team's latest loss, Boone shared some new information about Judge's injury. Judge has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, but the Yankees believe he can return in less than two weeks. When Judge returns to the lineup, Boone said it will initially be as a designated hitter. Judge is having an outstanding season. He entered Saturday batting .342, which is the best mark in baseball. The reigning American League MVP has 37 home runs, 85 RBI and a 1.160 OPS. The Yankees are now six games behind the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays and fighting to remain atop the wild-card race. It goes without saying that they are hopeful Judge will be able to return as soon as possible.
Browns make curious decision with rookie QB Shedeur Sanders
The Cleveland Browns are giving Shedeur Sanders special treatment in training camp, but it's not the type of favoritism the fifth-round pick would necessarily want. Per Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN, Sanders is the only Browns quarterback who has not been taking reps with the first-team offense during OTAs or the first two practices of training camp. Former Pittsburgh Steelers first-round pick Kenny Pickett, veteran Joe Flacco and rookie Dillon Gabriel have all split reps with the first team. Despite being asked to throw passes to members of the equipment staff amid a shortage of professional pass-catchers for a four-quarterback roster, Sanders said he's thankful for the opportunity to show the Browns coaching staff his talents. "I feel like that it's not in my control, so I'm not going to think about that or even have that in my thought process of why it is," Sanders said to a question as to why he's not getting first-team reps. "There's a lot of people who want to have the opportunity to be at this level, and I'm here and I'm thankful to have the opportunity. So, whenever that is, that is." Sanders, 23, believes that he can contribute more to the Browns than what the coaching staff is asking of him. "It doesn't make me feel down or left out because I know who I am as a person," Sanders said. "I know who I am as an individual and I know what I could bring to this team. So, I can never feel less than any circumstance." The Browns selected Sanders with the No. 144 pick in April's draft. As a player whom many draft analysts thought was a first-round talent, Cleveland took what could be the steal of the draft in the fifth round. It's curious why the Browns aren't giving Sanders a shot with the first team early in training camp before the quarterback race becomes more serious. Cleveland should see what Sanders has to offer this summer. Flacco, 40, isn't a long-term solution at the position. Pickett failed in Pittsburgh. The Browns need to gauge what rookies Gabriel and Sanders can do with the first team. Having Sanders throw balls to the equipment staff is a waste of everyone's time. But then again, Cleveland has wasted plenty of quarterbacks.
Matthew Golden receives nickname and comparison from Packers assistant coach that will leave fans salivating to watch him play
The 4'2 40-yard dash and the speed Matthew Golden shows on tape were big motivators for the Green Bay Packers to finally select a wide receiver in the first round after 23 years. In the first week of training camp, his smoothness to run routes is evident, and his quickness to explode from the line of scrimmage catches the attention of everyone around him. Assistant head coach and special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia is no different. He likes to give players nicknames based on profile comparison, and Golden has already received his: Bob Hayes, the Bullet, a former star Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers receiver who was an All-Pro three times in the 1960s and won two gold medals in the 1964 Tokyo Olympics on track and field. Hayes, who passed away in 2002, one year before Matthew Golden was born, is the only person to win both a Super Bowl title and an Olympic gold medal. "[Bisaccia] told me to look him up. I looked him up and I saw he was real fast," Golden said in the locker room. "So he gave me that nickname." Bob Hayes played for the Cowboys from 1965 through 1974. He was a First-Team All-Pro in 1966 and 1968, a Second-Team All-Pro in 1967, and a Pro Bowler in those three years. With speed as his calling card, he was the NFL receiving touchdowns leader in 1965 and 1966. It's impossible to know how close Matthew Golden will be to that amazing career, but this is an answer the Packers don't need right now. So far, the early signs are as promising as they could be. "For any of these guys coming in for the first time, you don't know the opportunities that are going to be presented to each player, and then they’ve got to respond," general manager Brian Gutekunst said earlier this week. "We think he's got a chance to certainly make an impact for our football team. I think it's going to be a competitive group. But again, we took him where we took him for a reason. At the same time, he's a third-year college kid. He has two years at Houston, one year at Texas. So far, so good." Part of the appeal for the Packers was Golden's positional versatility. In his lone season at Texas, the wide receiver played 664 snaps outside, 175 in the slot, and even 12 in the backfield. "It's easier initially to start with a primary position, but really it's about how much they can handle," head coach Matt LaFleur explained. "The more he shows he can handle, that will naturally occur. We've done a nice job, [passing game coordinator Jason] Vrable and [wide receivers coach Ryan] Mahaffey do a really good job training these guys. We always try to teach concepts and where you fit within the concept. The more a player proves he can handle that and move around, the more opportunities he gets." Matthew Golden has shown he can impact the offense right away. As fast as he is on the field.
Aaron Rodgers had the worst possible start to Steelers camp
Aaron Rodgers made his practice debut for the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, and it was not necessarily a moment he will want to remember. Rodgers’ very first pass was intercepted by linebacker Patrick Queen. The quarterback was trying to find top target DK Metcalf on a curl route, but was not quite accurate enough. Rodgers will not lose any sleep over this. It is not the first interception he has thrown in a practice session and it will not be the last. It did make for some amusing viewing for critics, though, and even some Steelers fans got a chuckle out of it. The Steelers are hoping Rodgers can lift them to at least a playoff win in 2025. If he succeeds, he is in line for a pretty big payday, and might even be able to go out on a high note if this is in fact his final NFL season. The other bright side to Rodgers’ inauspicious start to his Pittsburgh career? It will probably make Giants rookie Jaxson Dart feel a little bit better about his own first pass.
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