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The 9-figure contract Astros must offer Alex Bregman to keep him from free agency

Originally posted on ClutchPoints | By Jedd Pagaduan | Last updated 4/1/24

The Houston Astros have been one of the most successful franchises in the MLB over the past decade or so; they have won two World Series titles since 2015, and they haven’t fallen short of the ALCS since then with the exception of the 2016 season (when they missed the playoffs). With sustained contention, however, comes a huge price to pay, and star third baseman Alex Bregman is next up on the franchise’s contract renewal list.

Bregman may no longer be the spring chicken of yore, but it’s not like he’s geriatric. He’s still 30 years old, and he’s still playing at a high level. Thus, the Astros may be incentivized to shell out the dough to keep Bregman in town, but it will take quite a lot of money to secure his services in a contract extension in what might be his final huge big-league contract.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Astros may have to offer Alex Bregman a contract worth $300 million over 10 years just to keep him from entering free agency. Alas, Nightengale wrote that despite Houston’s interest to keep their longtime third baseman on the Minute Maid Park hot corner, they “aren’t expected to come close” to offering the figure Bregman and his camp would want.

Bregman has been a paragon of consistency for the Astros for as long as he’s been healthy; however, it’s not quite clear if there’s room in the team’s payroll for the coming years to fit that big of a contractual commitment.

Astros’ payroll situation

At this point of the 2024 season, the Astros rank third in the MLB in total and sixth in active 26-man roster payroll. Simply put, they are shelling out some serious money to keep their winning core intact. This is why it makes a ton of sense for the Astros to at least put in a strong effort to try and re-sign Alex Bregman.

Alas, Bregman may have the leverage when it comes to negotiations with the Astros. He will comfortably be the best third baseman in the free-agent market, and it at least makes sense for the 30-year old to at least test the waters in the open market after the Astros got two of his free-agent years in the big extension he signed back in 2019.

The Astros were able to sign Jose Altuve to an extension, so it’s not like it cannot be done. But Altuve was willing to sign a five-year, $125 million deal; the problem with the Astros doesn’t appear to be the annual commitment, but rather, they do not want to give out decade-long contracts that pay a player long past his best days.

However, Alex Bregman also has to take into account the risk that comes with entering free agency; teams were reticent to go all-out in pursuit of a few free agents that would cost a fortune this past offseason.

Will Alex Bregman be worth his next contract?

The tricky nature of free agency is that players tend to slow down in the years after they sign a huge contract; such is the drawback of having six years of team control, as players don’t exactly get the best compensation they can when they’re in their best years.

But Alex Bregman’s batting peripherals have been remarkably consistent over the past few seasons. He remains one of the best-hitting third baseman in the MLB, all the while providing positive value on the field. It remains to be seen if Bregman will age gracefully, but at the very least, his plate discipline, batting eye, and ability to contribute apart from the hitting side of the equation bodes well for his value moving forward.

This article first appeared on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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