The Blue Jays need more from Kevin Gausman in order to succeed

While the Blue Jays are 9-8 so far for May and sit with a record of 23-24 overall, in many ways, it feels like things have gone worse than that for this team lately. While .500 baseball is nothing to brag about, it does represent a small step in the right direction compared to April. Regardless, the Blue Jays will move the needle more than that if they want to climb into the playoff picture in the American League, and this team can hope for many areas of improvement going forward.

One of those improvements comes from an unlikely source in Kevin Gausman, arguably the ace of the starting rotation. The two-time All-Star began the season on a pretty solid note as usual, posting a 2.49 ERA over his first four starts covering 27.1 innings pitched, while striking out 20 batters and walking just three. Since then, however, his numbers are going in the wrong direction, and that spells big trouble for a team that relies so heavily on the veterans that make up their rotation, led by Gausman.

Since April 20th, Gausman has seen his ERA jump from 2.49 to the current mark of 4.59 over nine starts covering 51.0 innings. He’s struggled to find that early-season form in four of his last five starts, and that downward trend was punctuated on May 15 when he gave up six runs over 5.1 innings against the Rays, including three home runs. The 34-year-old wasn’t shy about sharing his frustration in the media after that game either, and expressed that “(So) somehow I’ve got to find a way to go be better for this team”.

That’s not to suggest that the Blue Jays’ recent struggles are on Gausman’s shoulders alone. The same realities have existed all season that the offence isn’t performing like a playoff-calibre team, and they just flat out need to produce more in order for this team to be a playoff contender. However, even Gausman will acknowledge that this team needs more than they’ve received from him in order to join the playoff conversation.

“All the best teams I’ve been on that made the post-season, it’s because our (starters were) really good. You need to have a good offence and timely hitting to win ball games, but I think we are only as good as our pitchers.”

In that same interview, Gausman also acknowledged that he and his fellow veteran starters are aware that there aren’t a lot of MLB-ready reinforcements, and that the job of keeping this team in playoff contention falls largely on their shoulders. With that in mind, Gausman also understands that, as arguably their best pitcher that they need to win more of his starts than they’re losing. That’s especially important when there are big question marks in the rotation other than Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt. Unfortunately, Bowden Francis has struggled so far this year, and Max Scherzer has been limited to just three innings so far this year after leaving his Blue Jays’ debut early due to injury concerns.

The strange thing is that Gausman’s advanced data looks like a small improvement over the way he performed in 2024, despite his more recent struggles. While his ERA is concernedly high at 4.59, his WHIP is at a solid spot at 1.059, and his FIP is the same number as last year for the right-hander, sitting at 3.49. Looking at his overall body of work this season could leave us with some encouraging signs that a bounce-back is around the corner, but his recent performance is troubling to say the least, especially when you consider that the 34-year-old will be making his 300th career MLB start when he next takes the mound.